Stephan Desplancke, Vice President Benelux

Transcriptie

1 Stephan Desplancke, Vice President Benelux

2 Inhoud Wie is BlackRock? Zitten we binnen 40 jaar zonder olie? Hoe beleggen in energie? 2

3 Wie is BlackRock? Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. Global Markets and Investment Banking Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (MLIM) Global Private Client Group 1 oktober juni 2008 MLIM $581 miljard AUM Obligaties 24% Alternatieve Beleggingen 3% Obligaties 66% + BlackRock $464 miljard AUM Obligaties 38% BlackRock $1.430 miljard AUM Alter. Belegg. 5% Overige 13% Aandelen 53% Liquiditeiten 20% Aandelen 9% Liq./ Overig 25% Aandelen 20% Liquiditeit en 26% 3

4 BlackRock Corporate Governance BlackRock, Inc. werd opgericht in 1988 Aandeelhouderstructuur 49% Bank of America 34% The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. 17% Werknemers & het publiek Genoteerd op de NYSE sinds 1 oktober 1999 BLK Samenstelling Raad van Bestuur 16 Bestuurders: 3 BlackRock, 2 Bank of America, 2 PNC, 9 onafhank. Bestuurders Laurence Fink, Mathis Cabiallavetta*, Dennis Dammerman*, Bill Demchak, Robert Doll, Kenneth Dunn*, Gregory Fleming, Murry Gerber*, James Grosfeld*, Robert Kapito, David Komansky*, Sir Deryck Maughan*, Thomas O Brien*, Linda Gosden Robinson*, James Rohr, John A. Thain Voorzitter & CEO Laurence Fink President Rob Kapito 4 *onafhankelijk

5 Wereldwijd actief, lokaal aanwezig Ruim werknemers in 19 landen, inclusief > 750 beleggingsexperten Hoofdkwartier in NY en beleggingskantoren in de VS, VK, Europa, Azië en Australië Meer dan 55 marketing & client service kantoren plus regionale distributeurs Klanten in meer dan 60 landen Aandelen: Boston Edinburgh Hong Kong London Melbourne New York Philadelphia Princeton Tokyo Obligaties: Edinburgh Eindhoven London New York Princeton Sydney Tokyo Vastgoed: Boston Frankfurt Hong Kong London Melbourne New York Newport Beach Northern New Jersey Pittsburgh San Francisco Tokyo Cash Management: London New York Princeton Wilmington Alternatives: Boston Durham Hong Kong London New York Princeton Seattle MAPS: Boston Eindhoven London New York Tokyo Zurich 5

6 Beleggingsoplossingen op maat Totale AUM: $1.428 miljard Global / Regional $91 Billion US Core $129 Billion Duration Target $164 Billion Specialty Sectors $125 Billion Liquidity $345 Billion Obligaties & Liquiditeiten Global Aggregate Global Credit Euro Aggregate Euro Credit Sterling Yen Core PLUS Core Bond Core Enhanced Index Liability-Driven LIBOR Enhanced Income Corporates High Yield Bank Loan Preferred Stable Value Emerging Markets Prime Government Securities Lending Multi-Asset Class Australian Dollar Canadian Liability-Driven Inflation-Linked Absolute Return Short Intermediate Long Mortgage-Backed CMBS ABS Inflation-linked Municipals Structured Products Municipal International Global $14 Billion Regional $74 Billion US Equity $66 Billion Sector-Specific $58 Billion Index $68 Billion Asset Allocation / Balanced $146 billion Aandelen & Gemengd Global Flexible Small Cap EAFE UK Europe Small Mid/SMID Large All Cap Energy Small Cap Energy Natural Resources Core Value Growth Index Enhanced Index Equity Structured/Derivatives Global US Private Equity & Debt: Private Equity FoF, BlackRock Kelso Capital Hedge Fund of Funds: Broadly Diversified Core, Focus, Custom Quantitative Fundamental Asia Pacific Latin America Emerging Markets Health SciencesQuantitative Global Sciences Fundamental & Tech Japan UK Alternatieve Beleggingen & Vastgoed Real Estate Equity: Core, Core/Enhanced Core, Value-Added, UK Property, European Property, Australian Property Real Estate Debt: Anthracite Capital (REIT), Carbon Capital I, II, and III, PNMAC Portable Alpha Strategic Advice Service Relative & Target Return Liability-Driven Investing Prepared Portfolios Global Tactical & Strategic Asset Allocation Fiduciary / CIO Outsourcing Fund of Alternatives Single-Strategy Hedge Funds: Fixed Income, Distressed, Sector-Specific Equity, Region-Specific Equity Capital Markets: Opportunistic Credit, Opportunistic Mortgage, Business Development Corporation, Structured Products Commodities: Active Long-Only and Hedged, Passive/Futures-Based 6 As of 30 June 2008

8 Groeilanden en vooral China, Indië,... spelen een cruciale rol 8

9 De Grondstoffen Super Cyclus Er zijn slechts 6 super cycli geweest in de laatste 250 jaar! Groei van China & Indië Commodity Index USD Prijs Europese Industriële Revolutie Industrialisatie van de VS Post WO1 Post W02 Olie schokken in de jaren 70 en Bron: internal

10 Azië is de motor voor de stijgende vraag naar grondstoffen 60% + aandeel van China stijgt 40% 20% 0-20% -40% -60% Aluminium Koper Ijzererts Olie - aandeel van de VS daalt E 2011E 10 Bron: Rio Tinto, February 2008

11 Infrastructuuruitgaven blijven stijgen Prognose infrastructuuruitgaven voor volgende 3 jaar (miljard $) Anglo American schat dat de groeilanden USD miljard zullen spenderen aan infrastructuur de volgende 10 jaar, waarvan USD miljard voor China China Golfstaten Rusland Indië Brazilië Mexico ML Prognose 2007 ML Prognose Bron: Merrill Lynch June 2008, Xstrata May 2008

12 Samenstelling van het Chinese BBP Samenstelling van netto export VS 21% Andere 9% Europa 24% RMB Trillions Azië 46% F Consumptie Investeringen Voorraden Netto export 12 Bron : BHP Billiton, Februari 2008

13 Energie 13

14 De energiemarkt is aan het veranderen 1. SEIZOENSGEBONDEN 2. CYCLISCH 3. STRUCTUREEL rijseizoen vraag naar afkoeling orkanen economische groei beleggingen financieel Niet-OECD vraag verouderde olievelden toegang tot reserves permanente verstrakking van de energiemarkt vraag naar verwarming omgeving 14

15 Vooruitzichten voor de wereldwijde energieconsumptie 15

16 Industrialisatie China & Indië: nog maar het begin China vandaag zit op het niveau van de VS in 1909 in termen van olieconsumptie per inwoner China & Indië alleen hebben 160 miljoen vaten per dag nodig, indien op het niveau van de VS Dit is bijna 2x het huidige wereldolieaanbod, dat 149 jaar ontwikkelingstijd in beslag nam Per Inwoner (vaten per jaar) VS 15 Japan 10 Zuid-Korea 5 China Indië Bron: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Respective Census Bureaus, Tristone Research August 2008.

17 China = VS in Bron: Google. Model C Ford, 1904 and Wright Flyer 1, 1903

18 Productiecapaciteit OPEC daalt 18

19 Niet-OPEC productiegroei daalt Russische olieproductie is cruciaal Wereldwijde olieproductie % maar valt stil Russische groei in productie (% YoY) miljoen vaten / dag Rusland 41% Rest vd wereld 7% OPEC 52% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% E 70-15% % Bron: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June Bron: IEA/BlackRock, 12 th August 2008 Report 19

20 Aanbod niet-opec daalt Miljoen vaten per dag ,9 45,7 46,8 47,8 48,7 48,6 48,9 49,25 49,5 49,6 49, , Mb/d 20 Bron: Credit Suisse (base case, August 2008)

21 Olievoorraden in de OECD Abnormaal lage voorraadopbouw in Q2 Olievoorraden uitgedrukt in miljoenen vaten Laagste absolute groei van de OECD voorraden in het 2 de kwartaal 2008 sinds 25 jaar 21 Bron: International Energy Agency (IEA) August 12 th 2008 Monthly Oil Market Report

22 Mexicaanse olieproductie droogt op Cantarell, s werelds op één na grootste olieveld produceert ~25% minder per jaar. 4,0 3,8 Dalende Mexicaanse Olieproductie miljoen vaten/dag 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,0 2,8 jan/04 jan/05 jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 22 Bron: International Energy Agency, 12 th August 2008 (Crude oil and NGLs)

23 Wereldwijde vraag naar olie stijgt 23

24 Veranderingen in vraag en aanbod 2,0m bbl 1,8m bbl 1,5m bbl Groei niet-opec aanbod Wereldwijde groei vraag 1,3m bbl 1,0m bbl 0,8m bbl 0,5m bbl 0,3m bbl Global Demand Growth 0,0m bbl Voorspelling 2007 (Dec 2006) 2007 Voorspelling 2009 (Sept 08) 24 Bron: Blackrock/IEA 13 th December 2006, 13 th December 2007 Adjusted for Angola joining OPEC. March 2008.

25 OECD oliereserves Reserve-Productie Ratio Jaren Totaal OECD OPEC NON-OPEC Rusland 25 Bron: BP, Citigroup Investment Research

27 Beleggen in energie Future-based exposure Futures contracten Beleggingsfondsen ETF s gelinkt aan oliefutures Aandelenexposure Energiebedrijven Beleggingsfondsen ETF s gelinkt aan grondstoffenindexen en -aandelen 27

28 Aandelen: hefboom voor bewegingen in de grondstoffenprijzen Percent Percent Percent BGF World Gold Gold Price BGF World Mining MG Base Metals Index BGF World Energy WTI Oil Price 28 Bron: Internal. US$ monthly performance as at 12th February 2008

29 Energiesector in 2008: 14% van S&P500 & 28% van de winsten Marktkapitalisatie Winsten Telecoms; 3% Info Technology; 17% Utilities; 4% Energy; 14% Materials; 4% Telecoms; 5% Info Technology; 10% Utilities; 6% Energy; 28% Industrials; 11% Financials; 9% Financials; 15% Consumer Disc; 8% Health Care; 12% Materials; 8% Health Care; 13% Consumer Staples; 11% Consumer Staples; 8% Consumer Disc; 6% Industrials; 10% 29 Bron: Factset & Datastream, BlackRock Information Research, as at 31 st July 2008

30 Correctie in energie aandelen: dèjà vu? 2.5 Hoogste Mei 98 Nov 99 Laagste Aug 98 Feb 00 % Change -22% -17% Log Chart of MSCI World Energy Index Mei 01 Sep 01-22% Apr 02 Sep 02-24% Ma 05 Mei 05-13% 2.3 Mei 06 Jun 06-14% Jul 07 Aug 07-15% Jan 08 Feb 08-16% Mei 08 Aug 08-22%

31 Olieprijs vs energie aandelen Rebased to jan 2007 feb 2007 mrt 2007 apr 2007 mei 2007 jun 2007 jul 2007 aug 2007 sep 2007 okt 2007 nov 2007 dec 2007 jan 2008 feb 2008 mrt 2008 apr 2008 mei 2008 jun 2008 jul 2008 aug 2008 Crude Oil (US$ WTI) MSCI World Energy Index (US$) 31 Bron: Datastream. Weekly data as at 25th August 2008.

32 Gemiddelde olieprijs vs. geïndexeerde upstream kapitaalkost Olieprijs is meer gestegen dan de toename in kostinflatie, wat leidt tot margevermeerdering Gemid. Jaarlijkse Olieprijs WTI in USD HIS/CERA Upstream Capital Cost Index 32 Bron: BlackRock/DataStream/CERA May 14 th 2008.

33 Overzicht van de olie- en gassector OIL EXPLORATION & APPRAISAL GAS DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT PRODUCTION DISCOVERY UPSTREAM PRODUCTION MIDSTREAM MIDSTREAM LNG Tanker Gas Pipeline LNG Tanker Gas Pipeline DOWN STREAM GAS & POWER GTL Plant Marketing Refinery LNG Terminal Local Gas Utility 33

34 Voorbeelden Geïntegreerde oliemaatschappijen BP, Petrobras, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell Uitrusting & Diensten Schlumberger Halliburton Drilling & Exploratie Transocean Statoilhydro Raffinage & Marketing Valero Energy Marathon Oil Sasol 34

35 Beleggen in grondstoffen bij BlackRock Grondstoffenfondsen BGF World Mining Fund BGF World Gold Fund BGF World Energy Fund BGF New Energy Fund

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