Het veranderend klimaat HOVO cursus 2009 College 2: Recente veranderingen in de atmosfeer Thomas Röckmann Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU) Utrecht University
Atmosfeer en klimaat HOVO cursus 2009 Natuurlijke en mens-gemaakte veranderingen in de atmosfeer De koolstofcyclus De stijging van CO 2 en andere gassen in het 20 e eeuw Het anthropoceen
NEEM pictures
Temperature and trace gases from ice cores IPCC, 2007
Temperatur und Spurengase II IPCC 2001
CO 2 in the past From IPCC 2007
A simple view of the Carbon cycle Units: Reservoirs PgC (10 15 gc) Fluxes PgC per year plant Atmosphere 760 PgC (~380 ppm) soil respiration plant assimilation 6 Fossil fuels 4000 PgC gas exchange 60 60 120 90 90 Biosphere plants 600 PgC soils 1600 PgC Ocean surface 1000 PgC deep 38000 PgC
Eerste stap: Nauwkeurige waarnemingen Tweede stap: Verklaring, begrip van het systeem ->onderzoek naar globale kringlopen/budgetten http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.htm
Global measurement network
CO2 rug
Waarnemigen in de atmosfeer Stijging: ~30 ppb in 20 jaren 1.5 ppb/yr 3 PgC/y
Airborne fraction Emissies van fossiele brandstoffen 2 keer groter dan atmosferische stijging From IPCC 2007
Waar zijn de emissies? Op het noordelijke halfrond! From IPCC 2007
Koolstof isotopen + 6 protonen 6 neutronen 12 C + 6 protonen 7 neutronen 13 C 2 extra neutronen: 14 C, radioactief
Isotope effects CO 2 13 CO 2 12 CO 2 is assimilated faster than 13 CO 2 C n H 2n O n 13 CC n-1 H 2n O n 13 CO 2 is depleted in the plant by about 2% Fossil material has no 14 C
13 C observations Extra CO 2 is not from the ocean! Sources: Friedli (1986), Francey (1999 ), and ESRL & INSTAAR, from P. Tans, NOAA/GMD
Δ 14 C observations atmosphere upper ocean Extra CO 2 is not modern! from P. Tans, NOAA/GMD
CONCLUSIES Biosphere source Ocean source Anthropogenic source Size of reservoirs -? + Size of fossil emissions (airborne fraction 50%) - - + Interhemispheric gradient? - + δ 13 C + - + 14 C -? + Variability in 650.000 years - - + De stijging van CO 2 is (~)100% anthropogeen
Global CO 2 cycle Units: PgC (10 15 gc) and PgC per year fossil fuel burning plant soil respiration plant assimilation landuse change Atmosphere 750 increase: 3 gas exchange 60 120 + 3? 2? 6 60 90 92 Fossil fuels 5000-10000 Biosphere 2200 plants 600, soils 1600 Rivers 1 Surface ocean 1000 increase: 1 Deep ocean 38000 increase: 1 from I. Levin, IUP Heidelberg Sediments 0.2
Changes to the atmospheric CO 2 budget IPCC 2007
Nog twee voorbeelden Het gemiddelde EU-Auto produceert 160 g CO 2 /km -> als je 10 km rijdt wordt zo veel CO 2 geproduceerd dat de hele atmosferische kolom boven 1cm 2 aardoppervlakte 100% vol zit met CO 2 -> Als je tussen de 6 en 10 keer je auto voltankt produceer je net zo veel kg CO 2 als je auto weegt
The CO 2 climate forcing is 1.7 W/m 2 1) The global energy consumption today is 0.03 W/m 2 2) CO 2 climate forcing provides more energy each year than has EVER been produced from fossil fuels in the 250 years since the industrial revolution. This enormous amount of energy is bound to impact the climate system.
Methaanstijging The last 20 years Bron: NOAA/CMDL, Boulder, en Etheridge et al., 1998
Sources and sinks of atmospheric CH4 1990 2000 Quellen [ Tg / yr ] Sources [Tg/yr] Total~ 600 Tg(CH 4 /y) Senken [Tg / yr] Sinks [Tg/yr] Biomassen Verbrennung burning 40-66 Natürliche Natural sources Quellen Transport to in stratosphere Stratosphäre 39-49 12-31 Oxidation in in soils Böden Rice Reisfelder paddies 90-120 175-242 wetlands termites Ocean hydrates Ruminants Wiederkäuer 92-140 Domestic Mülldeponien waste 36-48 Energie Energy 90-110 Tropospheric troposphärisches OH OH 499-558 Atmospheric life time ~ 10 years
Changes to the atmospheric CH 4 budget IPCC 2007
Identification of the modern N 2 O source present trend: +0.8 ppb/yr today pre-industrial
Changes to the atmospheric N 2 O budget IPCC 2007
Broeikasgassen en stralingsbalans IPCC bericht 2007 CO 2 N 2 O CH 4 Bron: IPCC 2007
The anthropocene Paul Crutzen, Nobel Price for Chemistry 1995 Most cited author in Geosciences 2002 Since the beginning of the 19th Century, by its own growing activities, Mankind opened a new geological era: the Anthropocene Man is clearly affecting climate and is even able to deliberately do so.
Human population and related changes During the past 3 centuries human population has increased tenfold to >6000 million and fourfold in the 20th century Cattle population increased to 1400 million (one cow/family); by a factor of 4 during the past century Urbanisation grew more than tenfold in the past century; almost half of the people live in cities and megacities Industrial output increased 40 times during the past century; energy use 16 times Almost 50 % of the land surface has been transformed by human action Water use increased 9 fold during the past century to 800 m 3 per capita; 65 % for irrigation, 25 % industry, ~10 % households
The great acceleration
New Scientist