Het veranderend klimaat

Transcriptie

1 Het veranderend klimaat HOVO cursus 2009 College 2: Recente veranderingen in de atmosfeer Thomas Röckmann Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU) Utrecht University

2 Atmosfeer en klimaat HOVO cursus 2009 Natuurlijke en mens-gemaakte veranderingen in de atmosfeer De koolstofcyclus De stijging van CO 2 en andere gassen in het 20 e eeuw Het anthropoceen

3 NEEM pictures

4 Temperature and trace gases from ice cores IPCC, 2007

5 Temperatur und Spurengase II IPCC 2001

6 CO 2 in the past From IPCC 2007

7 A simple view of the Carbon cycle Units: Reservoirs PgC (10 15 gc) Fluxes PgC per year plant Atmosphere 760 PgC (~380 ppm) soil respiration plant assimilation 6 Fossil fuels 4000 PgC gas exchange Biosphere plants 600 PgC soils 1600 PgC Ocean surface 1000 PgC deep PgC

8 Eerste stap: Nauwkeurige waarnemingen Tweede stap: Verklaring, begrip van het systeem ->onderzoek naar globale kringlopen/budgetten

9 Global measurement network

10 CO2 rug

11 Waarnemigen in de atmosfeer Stijging: ~30 ppb in 20 jaren 1.5 ppb/yr 3 PgC/y

12 Airborne fraction Emissies van fossiele brandstoffen 2 keer groter dan atmosferische stijging From IPCC 2007

13 Waar zijn de emissies? Op het noordelijke halfrond! From IPCC 2007

14 Koolstof isotopen + 6 protonen 6 neutronen 12 C + 6 protonen 7 neutronen 13 C 2 extra neutronen: 14 C, radioactief

15 Isotope effects CO 2 13 CO 2 12 CO 2 is assimilated faster than 13 CO 2 C n H 2n O n 13 CC n-1 H 2n O n 13 CO 2 is depleted in the plant by about 2% Fossil material has no 14 C

16 13 C observations Extra CO 2 is not from the ocean! Sources: Friedli (1986), Francey (1999 ), and ESRL & INSTAAR, from P. Tans, NOAA/GMD

17 Δ 14 C observations atmosphere upper ocean Extra CO 2 is not modern! from P. Tans, NOAA/GMD

18 CONCLUSIES Biosphere source Ocean source Anthropogenic source Size of reservoirs -? + Size of fossil emissions (airborne fraction 50%) Interhemispheric gradient? - + δ 13 C C -? + Variability in years De stijging van CO 2 is (~)100% anthropogeen

19 Global CO 2 cycle Units: PgC (10 15 gc) and PgC per year fossil fuel burning plant soil respiration plant assimilation landuse change Atmosphere 750 increase: 3 gas exchange ? 2? Fossil fuels Biosphere 2200 plants 600, soils 1600 Rivers 1 Surface ocean 1000 increase: 1 Deep ocean increase: 1 from I. Levin, IUP Heidelberg Sediments 0.2

20 Changes to the atmospheric CO 2 budget IPCC 2007

21 Nog twee voorbeelden Het gemiddelde EU-Auto produceert 160 g CO 2 /km -> als je 10 km rijdt wordt zo veel CO 2 geproduceerd dat de hele atmosferische kolom boven 1cm 2 aardoppervlakte 100% vol zit met CO 2 -> Als je tussen de 6 en 10 keer je auto voltankt produceer je net zo veel kg CO 2 als je auto weegt

22 The CO 2 climate forcing is 1.7 W/m 2 1) The global energy consumption today is 0.03 W/m 2 2) CO 2 climate forcing provides more energy each year than has EVER been produced from fossil fuels in the 250 years since the industrial revolution. This enormous amount of energy is bound to impact the climate system.

23 Methaanstijging The last 20 years Bron: NOAA/CMDL, Boulder, en Etheridge et al., 1998

24 Sources and sinks of atmospheric CH Quellen [ Tg / yr ] Sources [Tg/yr] Total~ 600 Tg(CH 4 /y) Senken [Tg / yr] Sinks [Tg/yr] Biomassen Verbrennung burning Natürliche Natural sources Quellen Transport to in stratosphere Stratosphäre Oxidation in in soils Böden Rice Reisfelder paddies wetlands termites Ocean hydrates Ruminants Wiederkäuer Domestic Mülldeponien waste Energie Energy Tropospheric troposphärisches OH OH Atmospheric life time ~ 10 years

25 Changes to the atmospheric CH 4 budget IPCC 2007

26 Identification of the modern N 2 O source present trend: +0.8 ppb/yr today pre-industrial

27 Changes to the atmospheric N 2 O budget IPCC 2007

28 Broeikasgassen en stralingsbalans IPCC bericht 2007 CO 2 N 2 O CH 4 Bron: IPCC 2007

29

30 The anthropocene Paul Crutzen, Nobel Price for Chemistry 1995 Most cited author in Geosciences 2002 Since the beginning of the 19th Century, by its own growing activities, Mankind opened a new geological era: the Anthropocene Man is clearly affecting climate and is even able to deliberately do so.

31 Human population and related changes During the past 3 centuries human population has increased tenfold to >6000 million and fourfold in the 20th century Cattle population increased to 1400 million (one cow/family); by a factor of 4 during the past century Urbanisation grew more than tenfold in the past century; almost half of the people live in cities and megacities Industrial output increased 40 times during the past century; energy use 16 times Almost 50 % of the land surface has been transformed by human action Water use increased 9 fold during the past century to 800 m 3 per capita; 65 % for irrigation, 25 % industry, ~10 % households

32 The great acceleration

33 New Scientist