Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)

Transcriptie

1 Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Development of spatial evaluation methods to support evaluation and comparison of alternative management strategies for Dutch fen meadow areas. Ron Janssen, Marjan van Herwijnen, Gustavo Arceniegas, Nancy Omtzigt, Niels de Reus 1

2 2 En passant: Mineralisatie venen is mondiaal verantwoordelijk voor 10% van de CO2 belasting

3 Genese van het systeem is genese van het probleem 3

4 4

5 De Nieuwe polder: Functie volgt peil Wim Dijkman, provincie Utrecht zones cm cm 0-30 cm cm cm maaiveldverloop waterpeil Gemiddeld 50 cm gebruik Huiskavel en gebouwen Grutto s, jongvee, ruwvoer, veensafari Natte Natuur, Piekberging water Grutto s, jongvee, ruwvoer, veensafari Huiskavel en gebouwen 5

6 Zegveld Noord De nieuwe polder op een schaal van 8000 ha Hoogteliggingen 6 in gebied ten Noorden van de Oude Rijn

7 Krimpenerwaard: herinrichting Beheersgebied Nieuwe natuur (EHS) Bebouwing Op basis van hoogteligging EHS Recreatie Landbouw Nieuw watersysteem LI Getallen: peilen - ANP Landbouw/natuur Recreatie 7 Landbouw

8 Beleidsalternatieven Scenario 1 Laagveen-(beheers-subsidies) 8 Scenario 3 Hoogveen-ontwikkeling Scenario 2 Laagveen-(onbeheerd) Scenario 4 Droogmakerij

9 Beleidsalternatieven Scenario 1 Laagveen-(beheers-subsidies) Scenario 2 Laagveen-(onbeheerd)) Scenario 9 3 Hoogveen-ontwikkeling Scenario 4 Droogmakerij

10 Project objective Development of spatial evaluation methods to support evaluation and comparison of alternative management strategies for Dutch fen meadow areas. Presentation of spatial information Spatial evaluation Visualization Spatial negotiation 10

11 Different stages of decision processes require different support 1. participatie verantwoording 8. datagebaseerd Empirisch perspectief Ratioperspectief 6. doelgericht draagvlak Consensusperspectief aanpasbaarheid datagebaseerd Politiek perspectief legitimiteit 5. efficiency Empirisch perspectief 7. verantwoording participatie draagvlak Consensusperspectief 3. aanpasbaarheid 3.00 Ratioperspectief Politiek perspectief 6. doelgericht 4. legitimiteit 5. efficiency 11

12 Management of the water levels of Lake IJssel 12

13 Three management alternatives Water stored vertically Water stored horizontally Water directly transported Ecotopes Ecotopen Zeer Very deep diep water Diep Deep water with met waterplants wpl Diep Deep water without - wpl waterplants Matig Moderately diep deep wtr water + wpl with wp. Matig Moderately diep deep wtr water - wpl without wp. Ondiep Shallow water with + waterplants wpl Ondiep Shallow water without - wpl waterplants Ondiep Shallow water wtr with + helofyten helophytes Laag Low forest gelegen bos Laag Low grassland gelegen grasland Laag Low bare gelegen kaal Laag Low shrub gelegen ruigte Hoog High forest gelegen bos Hoog High grassland gelegen grasland Hoog High bare gelegen kaal Hoog High shrub gelegen ruigte N N N Meters 13

14 Aggregated maps Water stored vertically Water stored horizontally Water directly transported Ecotopes Legenda Water met with waterpl. waterplants Water zonder without waterpl. waterplants Laag Low gelegen forest bos Laag Low gelegen grassland grasl. Laag Low gelegen bare kaal Laag Low gelegen shrub ruigte Hoog High gelegen forest bos Hoog High gelegen grassland grasl. Hoog High gelegen bare kaal Hoog High gelegen shrub ruigte N Meters 14

15 Value maps Value map of breeding birds 4 3 Value map of breeding birds Number of target types of breeding birds Number of target types of breeding birds Number of target types Number of target types Meters Meters N N 15

16 Value maps of the management alternatives 16

17 Aggregation of value maps Value breeding birds Value other birds Value all birds ( ) 17

18 Combine different types of information a. graph b. table 2100 nat jaar ongewijzigd beheer 2100 nat jaar 2100 nat jaarwater direct afvoeren c. text d. maps Ecotopes Ecotopen Zeer Very deep diep water Diep Deep water with met waterplants wpl Diep Deep water without - wpl waterplants Matig Moderately diep deep wtr water + wpl with wp. Matig Moderately diep deep wtr water - wpl without wp. Ondiep Shallow water with + waterplants wpl Ondiep Shallow water without - wpl waterplants Ondiep Shallow water wtr with + helofyten helophytes Laag Low forest gelegen bos Laag Low grassland gelegen grasland Laag Low bare gelegen kaal Laag Low shrub gelegen ruigte Hoog High forest gelegen bos Hoog High grassland gelegen grasland Hoog High bare gelegen kaal Hoog High shrub gelegen ruigte N Meters 18

19 Outline Presentation of spatial information Spatial evaluation Visualization Spatial negotiation 19

20 Land use in the Wormer- and Jisperveld Land use grassland (agriculture) grassland (buffer zone) polder forest grassland (nature) open water Kilometers 20

21 High natural values 21

22 Marginal agriculture 22

23 High recreational values 23

24 Stakeholders and their interests Agricultural organisations Constant water levels, water quality Accessibility, Size Continuity and future perspectives for farms Recreation (fisheries) Variation in landscapes Accessibility Water quality Nature Conservation Organisations Flexible water levels, water quality Variation in landscapes also cultural/historic landscapes Corridors, Larger units of protected nature Provincial/regional authorities Safety Water quality Water quantity 24

25 Policy alternatives Modern fen meadow (current) water drainage to support agriculture open landscape food for meadow birds Historical fen meadow educed drainage raise of water table negative impacts for agriculture opp. for some bird and plant species Dynamic mire floods in winter permanent waterlogged soils no agriculture peat growth 25

26 Evaluation maps for water storage 26

27 Results of evaluation 3 alternatives x 10 criteria -> 30 evaluation maps Modern fen meadow Historical fen meadow Dynamic fen mire c 1 c 2 c.. c 10 27

28 Three evaluation paths a 1 a 2 a 3 a 1 a 2 a 3 c 1 c 2 c 3 c 4 SA c 1 c 2 c 3 c 4 Path 3 MCA Path 1 MCA Path 2 a 1 a 2 a 3 a 1 a 2 a 3 SA 28

29 Evaluation maps a 1 a 2 a 3 c 1 c 2 c 3 c 4 Total value maps a 1 a 2 a 3 29

30 Evaluation maps 30

31 Aggregated impact table a 1 a 2 a 3 a 1 a 2 a 3 c 1 c 2 c 3 c 4 Spatial Aggregation c 1 c 2 c 3 c 4 31

32 Evaluation table Modern Historic Dynamic Water quality P retention N retention Water quantity Water retention Peak storage Flood storage Biodiversity Fauna national Flora national Fauna international Flora international Climate change Greenhouse gas balance Socio- economic Cultural heritage Agriculture Recreation

33 Total ranking Weights Water quality Water quantity Biodiversity Climate change Socio- economic Histor Dynam Modern 33

34 Ranking per policy objective Gewichten Water quality Result Water quantity Biodiversity Climate change Socio- economic Water quality Water quantity Biodiversity Climate Socio-economic Histor Dyn Modern 34

35 Spatial compactness Spatial compactness is defined as a combination of three indicators: fragmentation largest cluster compactness 35

36 Outline Presentation of spatial information Spatial evaluation Visualization Spatial negotiation 36

37 A virtual environment of the plan area 37

38 Raising the water table to 1.5 NAP 38

39 39 Current situation

40 40 Raising the water table to 1.5 NAP

41 Current situation 41

42 Raising the water table to 1.5 NAP 42

43 How to use the system? First round of policy design, scanning of alternatives Preparation of land use and water management plans Support of land use planners Support of interactive processes 43

44 Integration of tools Water quality Water quality Water quantity Climate Biodiversity Socio-economic Water quantity Climate Biodiversity Socio-economic Dynam Histor Modern

45 Outline Presentation of spatial information Spatial evaluation Visualization Spatial negotiation 45

46 Spatial negotiation Waarderingsk aart Planont wer p Totaal Natuur (start) No Data natuurwaarde Totaal Natuur (start) No Data 100% New value Start value 0% Nature Water Agricult ure 46

47 Voorbeeldgebieden Polder Groot Wilnis Meijepolder/Polder Zegveld Gouwe Wiericke West??? 47

48 maaiveld

49 maaiveld

50 maaiveld

51 maaivelddaling

52 maaivelddaling

53 jaar maaiveld cm daling mm/jaar maaiveld

54 maaivelddaling - toename sinds zestiger jaren - sterk bepaald door zomer laagste grwstand, als je wil remmen moet je daar op sturen -echter: paradox: lagere mv-daling-> minder berging - sterke ruimtelijke spreiding in dalingsgevoeligheid -> soort veen - alleen 54 te remmen, niet te stoppen

55 BLOK I ( natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek - processen) GHG Emissies (KvR, ME1) Biodiversiteit (KvR, ME5a) Waterkwaliteit (KvR, ME5a) & LmW, P1006) Landschapswaarden (LmW ) Bodemdaling (P1006, LmW) Verzilting (LmW, P1026), DC, (KvR, A4) Hydrologie (LmW) DSS/GIS (KvR, ME5b), Geo Scenario dialoog (KvR, ME5b), LmW (P1006), BLOK II Emissies/sinks/sources (KvR, ME2, IC2, IC4) Scenario s Hydrologie/ waterkwaliteit (LmW) Landgebruik (KvR IC3, IC4) Klimaat (KvR, CS7) Economie/institutioneel (LmW, P1015) BLOK III Waardering, sturing en communicatie Kosten/Baten (LmW, LEI), (kvr, IC5) Bestuurlijke arrangementen (LmW, Copernicus) Dialoog LmW (Alterra),KvR (ME5b), VR GIS Geo DSS KvR (ME5b), LmW, VR BLOK IV Ruimtelijke Ordening Veenweide 55 Visies (Provincies, VR) Streekplannen (Provincies, VR)

56 Directe relaties met andere KvR projecten ME1: Relatie landgebruik - emissies van CO 2, N 2 O en CH 4 ME5: Ruimtelijke patronen ontwerp en beoordeling van alternatieven IC5: Methode ontwikkeling Lands: Ruimtelijke modellering 56

57 Next steps for ME6 Select a relevant and interesting study site Identify information needs for the study site Identify relevant information generated by other Fen Meadow projects Develop decision support tools Impalement and test tools with stakeholders Develop user friendly software for stakeholders 57