Climate change and land use Landgebruik en klimaatverandering

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Elke de Groot
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1 Climate change and land use Landgebruik en klimaatverandering Eddy Moors Earth System Science Climate Change Contents How accurate are climate predictions? Prioritization of adaptation measures Adaptation in the Rhine basin (Effects of land use feedbacks on precipitation) Conclusions

What is uncertainty? un cer tain ty (ŭn sûr'tn tē) n., pl. ties. The condition of being uncertain; doubt. The state of mind of an individual who is unable to make any estimate of future events.

2 What is uncertainty? un cer tain ty (ŭn sûr'tn tē) n., pl. ties. The condition of being uncertain; doubt. The state of mind of an individual who is unable to make any estimate of future events. Something uncertain: the uncertainties of modern life. Statistics. The estimated amount or percentage by which an observed or calculated value may differ from the true value. Often, the uncertainty of a measurement is found by repeating the measurement enough times to get a good estimate of the standard deviation of the values. Climate predictions: global temperature change

3 Atmospheric circulation change Van Ulden and Van Oldenborgh, 2006 How to present uncertainty? Climate change in the Netherlands depends on: global temperature rise change in local wind regime

Uncertainty in sea level rise IPCC 2007 WG1 The physical system : 0.18 0.59 m (globally 2071 2100). 0.6 0.8 m (North Sea 2071 2100) A2 scenario (Lowe and Gregory, 2005) KNMI: 0.35 0.

4 Uncertainty in sea level rise IPCC 2007 WG1 The physical system : m (globally ) m (North Sea ) A2 scenario (Lowe and Gregory, 2005) KNMI: m (2100, 4 0 C) ~1.5 m (2100, max. estimate) but without increased melting rate ice sheets, (Rhamstorf, 2007) m (2300) IPCC 2007 WG3 Mitigation : m (Meehl et al., 2007) Omgevingsscenario s Ontwikkelingsstappen: Identificeer de belangrijkste autonome processen en onzekere trends Verken de extremiteiten van deze trends Stel aan de hand hiervan een aantal scherp contrasterende scenario s op (bijv. 2x2) Beschrijf voor elk scenario hoe in het uiterste geval de onzekere trends kunnen doorwerken Formuleer strategieën die anticiperen op de beschreven ontwikkelingen Beoordeel de effectiviteit van de strategieën. Is sprake van z.g. robuuste strategieën? Scenario s Het weer Scenario 1 Droog Scenario 3 Warm Koud Scenario 2 Zeer nat Scenario 4 WING

Duurzaam leven aan zee: De Nederlandse kust in 2080 TNO, 2007 De

economische ontwikkeling (volume, structuur, geografische

De maatschappelijke attitude ten opzichte van de zee.

de belangrijkste onzekerheden werd aangemerkt.

5 Duurzaam leven aan zee: De Nederlandse kust in 2080 TNO, 2007 De Nederlandse kust in 2080 Belangrijkste drijvende krachten: De economische ontwikkeling (volume, structuur, geografische spreiding van activiteiten). De maatschappelijke attitude ten opzichte van de zee. Wordt de zee vooral gezien als een bedreiging of juist als een bron van mogelijkheden? Opvallend is dat de stijging van de zeespiegel niet als één van de belangrijkste onzekerheden werd aangemerkt. De overweging hierachter is dat men in de periode tot 2080 enerzijds geen grote veranderingen verwacht (maximaal 1 meter) en anderzijds dat deze ontwikkeling ook vrij zeker is. TNO, 2007

6 Land use change ACER: developing Adaptive Capacity to Extreme events in the Rhine basin

7 Scenario Structure ACER Base Today Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Developments Climate Today Socio-Econ. Land use Institution. W+ Socio-Econ.1 Spat.Plan.1 Institution.1 W+ Socio-Econ.2 Spat.Plan.2 Institution.2 W+ Socio-Econ.3 Spat.Plan.3 Institution.3 W+ Socio-Econ.4 Spat.Plan.4 Institution.4 Events Flood 93/95 Drought 03 Flood1;Flood2 Drought Flood1;Flood2 Drought Flood1;Flood2 Drought Flood1;Flood2 Drought Strategies Impacts Measures - Current -Till 2020 Discharge Water level Damage Quality S1 S2 S3 S4 Dikes Upper Rhine Dikes Lower Rhine Retention Buffering Land use Analysis at regional and global scales: systems, components, state, couplings and feedbacks The US president s family created a positive feedback loop resulting in a continuous winter discomfort

precipitation (A numerical experiment) Obvious

8 Effect of land use change on precipitation Abandonment of croplands (EURURALIS 2030) Effect of land use change on precipitation (A numerical experiment) Obvious precipitation maximum in 30 yr average Reason: topography or land cover?

9 VELUW E precipitation maximum 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% % % J AN FEB M RT APR MEI J UN J UL AU G SEP OKT NOV D EC month averag emo nthly rainfall JA N FEB MR T AP R MEI JU N JUL AU G SE P OKT NOV DEC mon th VELUW E precipitation maximum Why? Topography or land cover? Model runs Control No forest No topography

ization should focus on robust (no regret) options Land cover change may have significant

10 Differences in precipitation (spatial) May 2005 Conclusions Uncertainty in sea level rise is high Scenario s for adaptation strategies should take this uncertainty into account Priorit ization should focus on robust (no regret) options Land cover change may have significant effects (10%) on precipitation Spatial planning may be used to adapt to increased floods and droughts

11 Discussion Adaptation or mitigation Albedo rapeseed Water quality: algae growth, turbidity Thanks for your attention

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