Scorebord van België. Overzicht. Electric vehicles in Belgium. De vraag. Het aanbod (voorbeelden) -Bedrijfsvloten. - Mobiliteitsconcepten

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1 Overzicht Scorebord van België Status januari 2011 Prof. Dr. Ir. Joeri Van Mierlo Belgische markt Infrastructuur en grid Kostprijs en Incentives Milieu prestaties Knelpunten en aanbevelingen 1 Pag. 2 Electric vehicles in Belgium BELGIUM MARKET Pag. 3 Pag.4 Ref: De vraag Het aanbod (voorbeelden) Tazzari Zero Tesla Newteon Philco -Bedrijfsvloten - Mobiliteitsconcepten Goupil Buddy Smile Green Wako - Particulieren Pag. 5 Pag.6 1

2 Tomorrow Maar wanneer? Nissan Leaf Mitsubishi MiEV e-mini Renault Fluence Opel Ampera Smart ED Vovlo C30 Peugeot I-on Citroën C-Zero 1. Test programma s 2. Strategisch per land/regio 3. Bevoorrechte klanten 4. Grote publiek Pag.7 Pag. 8 Maar wanneer? Mitsubishi imiev Begin (EU) Peugeot ion Begin (EU) Citroën C-Zero Begin (EU) Nissan Leaf Midden Ford Focus Electric Einde (USA) Renault Fluence ZE Einde Renault Kangoo ZE Einde Renault Zoe ZE 2e sem Renault Twizy ZE Einde BMW Mini E Test programma BMW Active E Test programma Toyota Plug-in Prius Midden Opel Ampera Einde (wereld) Renault-Nissan Battery manufacturing sites Pag.9 Pag.10 Ref: Jérome Perrin, Renault-Nissan Evolution of Passenger transport energy sources and propulsion technology, towards 2050 INFRASTRUCTURE Pag.12 Source: ERTRAC Strategic Research Agenda 2010: Towards a 50% more efficient road transport system by 2030 Pag. 13 2

3 Vrije Universiteit Brussel Charging infrastructure Inductive charging Fast charging (5%) Normal charging 95% (overnight, cheap, available everywhere, efficient) Pag.14 Pag.15 Infrastructure Some examples: ThePluginCompany Becharged Enovates Ineltra Systems Krautli P&V elektrotechniek Pag. 16 Overzicht laadpunten in België ( Pag.17 Share of parkings in houses (Belgium, 2009) Impact of charging infrastructure 3.4 milj garages, parkings of overdekte staanplaatsen bij woningen 5.2 milj personenwagens en lichte bedrijfswagens Totaal Buildings en flatgebouwen met appartementen Huizen in open bebouwing, hoeven en kastelen Huizen in halfopen bebouwing Huizen in gesloten bebouwing 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% % garages/woongelegenheid % garages/gebouw Pag.18 Bron: Joeri Van Mierlo VUB op basis van FOD Economie Pag.19 Characteristics of CHAdeMO Quick Charging System Takafumi Anegawa, EVS25;

4 Impact of charging infrastructure Electricityproduction en distribution 10% EVs = > only % extra electricity production But potential extra demand for electricity after working hours Smart battery charging during off peak hours Pag.20 Characteristics of CHAdeMO Quick Charging System Takafumi Anegawa, EVS25; 2010 Pag. 21 Elektriciteitsdistributie Max 30% EV+PHEV share, (30% EV, 70% PHEV) Plug-in around 5:30 p.m. COST AND INCENTIVES Pag. 22 Ref: Trans2House, Vito, VUB Pag. 23 Taxation for EVs in Belgium Life Cycle Cost of EVs Reduction Maximum Quadricycle 15% EV 30% Charging point 40% 250 Registration tax EV 61,50 Ownership tax EV 71,28 Lowest rates possible in Belgium 2010 rates Pag.24 Ref: Pag.25 4

5 LCC General results LCC cars Small city cars ICE Small city cars EV cars HEV cars ICE cars EV cars PHEV Sport Sport ICE EV 0,32 0,28 0,25 0,29 0,36 0,31 0,29 0,25 0,28 Pag. 26 Trans2House, MOBI, VUB Pag. 27 Trans2House, MOBI, VUB LCC Sports car Vehicle Cost structure 0,76 0,80 0,97 Porsche Boxster Tesla Roadster Porste 911 Carrera 2 Speedster km/h 4 sec 4,9 sec 4,7 sec Maximum speed 212 km/h 267 km/h 289 km/h Price euro euro euro Pag. 28 Trans2House, MOBI, VUB Pag.29 Battery cost ( ) Battery pack cost in $/kwh -60% Assembly costs decrease Material cost decrease Cathode material share rises to 25% ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Pag.30 Pag. 31 5

6 CO 2 emission reductie Doelstellingen in transport (g/km) Greenhouse effect, acidification, eutrophication, ozonlayer, natural resources, human health, a 95% WTT Raw materials Production Refining and production Distribution Maintenance TTW Usage Waste Pag.32 Raw materials Production of components Assembly and distribiution Greenhouse effect (IPPC) Small family car [g CO 2 eq] 6,00E+07 5,00E+07 4,00E+07 3,00E+07 2,00E+07 1,00E+07 0,00E+00 1,00E+07 EOL NiMH Battery Eol Li bat Total Petrol Diesel LPG CNG HEV EV (LEAF) EV (IMIEV) Eof lead acid battery End of life Tire and brake Abrasion Maintenance TTW Petrol heavy metals TTW Diesel heavy metals TTW WTT Assembly eq.car Transport NiMH battery Lithium Ion battery Lead acid battery Raw Materials Influence of National Renewable Energy Action Plan on GHE results of BEV [ton CO2-eq] ,8% 12,7% 20,9% Renewable energy share in Belgian electricity mix 50 43,33 WTT Coal Electricity 40 37,52 Transport Raw Materials 30 23,25 Maintenance 14, ,49 12,65 10,05 Lithium Ion battery Lead acid battery 4, ,38 4,22 Eol Li bat 0 10 coal oil gas BE mix 2010 BE mix 2015 BE mix 2020 biogas Wind Nuclear hydro Eof lead acid battery End of life Assembly eq.car Total Pag. 34 Ref: Van Mierlo J., Macharis C., Boureima F., Messagie M., Turcksin L.; Vrije Universiteit Brussel; Pag. 35 Global Lithium Reserves (1 EV batterij heeft +/- 3kg Li) OBSTACLES & RECOMMENDATIONS Pag.36 Ref: The future of electromobility; Milestones in the development of the lithium-ion battery; Dr. Joachim Fetzer; SB LiMotive Pag. 37 6

7 Knelpunten en aanbevlingen Knelpunten en aanbevelingen Aankoopprijs Fiscale maatregelen voldoende? Administratief Moeilijkheden bij homologatie/inschrijvingen Aanbod Laadpalen Range Anxiety (bereikbezorgdheid) Proefprojecten Reëel batterijgedrag Aankoop en verplaatsingsgedrag Business en markt modellen Lange termijn visie en stappenplan Prof. Prof. Joeri Joeri Van Van Mierlo Mierlo - VUB Pag. 38 Prof. Prof. Joeri Joeri Van Van Mierlo Mierlo - VUB Pag. 39 More info? Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo Contact Joeri.van.mierlo@vub.ac.be Pag.40 7