Klimaatverandering: oorzaken, gevolgen en onzekerheden

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1 Klimaatverandering: oorzaken, gevolgen en onzekerheden Bert de Vries Kargadoor Utrecht, 23 mei 213

2 Wat is wetenschap? Wetenschap is niet meer wat het geweest is, zij is post-normaal geworden. We moeten expliciet rekening houden met complexiteit, onzekerheid en controversen. mas s vel oci ty v. mas s pos iti on X : 1 - mas s vel oci ty v. mas s pos iti on X : 1 - mas s vel oci ty v. mas s pos iti on X : bifurcatie -3-3 Pmas ages2pos iti on X Untitl ed : 1 dimas np1 age 2 iti 2 s mei pos on5x Untitl ed : 7 pos2 iti on di nmas 1 s mei 5 X Untitl ed 3 Wat is duurzaamheid? Duurzaamheid is denken, voelen en handelen in het spanningsveld tussen het zoveel mogelijk objectief vast te stellen mogelijke en het onvermijdelijk subjectief wenselijke. 1 : 8 di n 1

3 Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment Linked economy, energy, agriculture and land-use Coupled system for land use, biogeochemical cycles, climate

4 IMAGE 2.2: Regions (energy, agricultural trade) Population, economy, energy: from 13 to 19 to 27 regions Land Use land Cover (Change) LUCC:.5 o x.5 o

5 A2 A1B B2 B1 How much goes in: global CO 2 -emissions (GtC, standardized) from all sources for the SRES-scenarios (2) From: SRES January 2 - Nakicenovic et al.

6 How much does this change the (average global surface) temperature IPCC AR4 WG

7 How much does this change the surface temperature? IPCC AR4 WG

8 Impacts

9 From temperature to emission target. 1 1 Emissies Emissies (GtCO (GtCO 2 ) 2 ) Temperatuurstijging ( o C) ( o C) Graden 2 Graden Broeikasgasconcentratie (ppm CO 2 -eq) Broeikasgasconcentratie (ppm CO 2 -eq) 2 o C target corresponds to around 4-45 ppm CO 2 eq. (8-5% probability). Corresponds to a 5% emission reduction in 25 Van Vuuren et al. (28). Temperature increase of 21 st scenarios. PNAS

10 Mitigation scenarios integrated analysis Nuclear Biofuels + CCS Oil+CCS Biofuels Oil Renewables Natural gas+ccs Coal+CCS Natural gas Coal Major changes in the global energy system Van Vuuren et al. Stabilising GHG emissions at low concentration levels.climatic

11 Costs of stabilising emissions Carbon tax Abatement costs (%GDP) Carbon tax ($/tc-eq) 8 65 CO2-eq 7 55 CO2-eq 6 45 CO2-eq Mitiigations costs (% GDP) CO2-eq CO2-eq 45 CO2-eq Substantial costs But nothing to disrupt the economy Van Vuuren et al. Stabilising GHG emissions at low concentration levels.climatic Change

12 Size of X Size of X Size of X Size of X a) 8 Logistic growth of X Carrying Capacity exponentiele groei Exponential growth of X b) 8 Logistic growth of X Carrying Capacity logistieke groei Exponential growth of X Final Timestep Final Timestep c) 8 Logistic growth of X Exponential growth of X Carrying Capacity d) 8 Logistic growth of X Exponential growth of X Carrying Capacity Final Final de optimist Timestep Timestep Vormen van toename en afname de pessimist

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14 Conservative [non-worldly] ideals Caring faithful (13%) Socially minded (11%) Conservatives (17%) Collective Other Balanced (28%) Hedonists (8%) Individual Self Broad minded (7%) Professionals (9%) Materialists (7%) (de Vries 212) Progressive [Worldly] achievement (PBL 24, De Vries en Petersen 29)

15 Absolute Idealism Geestelijk mental/spiritual Immaterieel immaterial Subjective Idealism Grote Wereld Universeel universal kleine wereld particular persoonlijk Modernism: Objective Materialism bodily Stoffelijk material Materieel Postmodernism: Subjective Materialism Decadence is the subordination of the whole to the parts (Oscar Wilde)

16 NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES Statement: The Earth is on its way to the next Ice Age global warming is at most a temporary slowdown. It is an illusion that we can control the future evolution of the world. Let s trust our ingenuity and adaptability! It is good that some scientists put climate change in perspective, if only to calm down the alarmists. Most climate policies are costly and unnecessary. An irresponsible attitude. Life is precious and humans do not have the moral right to interfere in this way. Irresponsible. There is quite some evidence that humaninduced climate change may trigger catastrophic system change. This will have large consequences for our (grand)children.

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18 Aalbers, T., ed. Waardenoriëntaties, wereldbeelden en maatschappelijke vraagstukken: Verantwoording van het opinieonderzoek voor de Duurzaamheidsverkenning Kwaliteit en Toekomst. Report Bilthoven, the Netherlands: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 26. Available at bibliotheek rapporten pdf. de Vries, B. Perspectieven op duurzame ontwikkeling, Lucht en Omgeving 6 no. 4, (1989): de Vries, B., and J. Goudsblom, eds.. Mappae Mundi Humans and Their Habitats in a Long-Term Socio-ecological Perspective. Myths, Maps, and Models. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 22. de Vries, B., and A. Petersen. Conceptualizing sustainable development: An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios, Ecological Economics 68 (29): van Egmond, N., and B. de Vries. Sustainability: the search for the integral worldview, Futures 43 (211): de Vries, B. Sustainability Science Guidance for Life on a Finite Planet. Cambridge University Press, 213 (

19 Inglehart, R. and C. Welzel. Modernization, Cultural Change and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. New York: Cambridge University Press, 25 Thompson, M., R. Ellis and A. Wildawsky. Cultural Theory. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 199 van Egmond, K. Een vorm van beschaving. Chistofoor, Zeist, 21 Verweij, M., and M. Thompson, eds. Clumsy Solutions for a Complex World: Governance, Politics, and Plural Perceptions. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 26 Websites: