Klimaat en energie in de EU. Bas Eickhout 1 december 2014 Oog voor het klimaat, Utrecht

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1 Klimaat en energie in de EU Bas Eickhout 1 december 2014 Oog voor het klimaat, Utrecht

2 Zware tijden Klimaat amper politiek thema op dit moment Economische crisis domineert; overcapaciteit Europese industrie groot probleem (veel ontslagen) Schaliegas in VS dodelijk voor huidige energieprijsverschillen VS en EU Gelukkig zijn de VN er nog: Parijs 2015

3 UNFCCC, 1992:...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Vertaald door EU in 2 C 3

4 Van wetenschap naar politiek 4

5 Dus welk concentratieniveau? 5 From climate science to climate policies Bas Eickhout

6 In IPCC-2014 termen

7 The risks from climate change, assessed by the WGII of the IPCC AR5, and aggregated in five Reasons for Concerns Levels of risk across the Reasons for Concern can be associated with a level of global temperature change. Here shown for a warming by 2oC

8 The link between cumulative CO2 emissions and global mean temperature The pink plume is from WGI complex models. It includes the uncertainty from non-co2 gases and climate and carbon cycle uncertainty, using the likely range

9 The link between cumulative CO2 emissions and global mean temperature The ellipses show results from the WGIII models, using a simple climate model. It does not include climate and carbon cycle uncertainty, but explores more comprehensively the scenario uncertainty from a range of CO2

10 Levels of risks can be connected to cumulative CO2 emission levels, for the average climate response, for high climate sensitivity (lower cumulative emissions), and for low climate sensitivity (higher cumulative emissions)

11 The link between changes in annual GHG emissions by 2050 and the cumulative CO2 emissions of the WGIII scenario categories

12 Levels of risks can now be connected to GHG emission changes by Added uncertainty arises from action on non-co2 gases, timing of pre-2050 action, and ambition of post-2050 action.

13 The constraint on changes in GHG emissions by 2050 depends on the sensitivity of the climate response. Here, with large climate sensitivity

14 The constraint on changes in GHG emissions by 2050 depends on the sensitivity of the climate response. Here, with low climate sensitivity

15 Dus welk uitstootniveau? 15

16 Consequences for the energy sector 16 From climate science to climate policies Bas Eickhout

17 Het 2020 pakket Heads of State agree on 20/20/20 targets, March 2007 Commission comes with proposals to agree upon, January 2008 Parliament and Council agree on legislation, December 2008

18 INTERMEZZO

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20 3 X 3 Commissie Parlement Raad Initiatief X indirect indirect Besluitvorming X X X Implementatie toezicht ---- X

21 Het 2020 pakket Heads of State agree on 20/20/20 targets, March 2007 Commission comes with proposals to agree upon, January 2008 Parliament and Council agree on legislation, December 2008

22 20/20/20 doelen 20% renewable energy in 2020

23 EU determines energy mix:

24 20/20/20 doelen 20% renewable energy in % less emissions greenhouse gases in 2020 compared to % through Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) 55% through national targets 20% energy efficiency in 2020 (non-binding) Conditionally to -30%: if global agreement is reached

25 De internationale spelers EU: meest uitgesproken (van rijke landen) voor klimaatbeleid VS: moeite met VN; vaak op de rem Rusland: onvoorspelbaar; blokkerend aan het eind BRICS: opkomende economieën; graag verschuilend achter ontwikkelingslanden G77: steeds meer verdeeld AOSIS: verdwijnende laag-liggende eilanden

26 2009: The picture that says it all

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29 2011: The picture that says it all

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31 Durban (December 2011) Strategy EU is successful: BRICS countries were split. China and India had to choose between G77 and US However: for the climate nothing seems to change until 2020

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33 Waar staan we? Bron: Climate Action Tracker

34 EU loopt steeds meer vast. Dan maar communicaties: 2050 Low Carbon Road Map

35 Emission Trading System

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38 Adjusting the problem: backloading

39 Energy agenda becomes more dominant

40 On geopolitical issues EU divided:

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42 And in the South

43 The process towards 2030 package March : Green Paper on climate and energy package for 2030 January : White paper February : Position EP October 23/ : Heads of State

44 What did the Heads of State decide? GHG reduction of -40% by 2030; continuation of free allowances for energy producers (Poland) EU-target for renewables of 27%; no national targets (UK) Non-binding efficiency target of 27% (NL) Indicative target for interconnections (Portugal)

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46 Interconnections

47 And from here? First legislative proposal on the table to improve ETS ( Market Stability Reserve ) Legislative proposals for 2030 package to be expected in spring 2015 EU pledge towards Paris will be -40% by 2030 Will there be room for co-legislators to adjust?

48 Overige thema s Biobrandstoffen en ILUC Europees industriebeleid Visie op toekomst sectoren in Europa Sectorale road maps (papier, chemie, staal) Gevolgen voor handelsbeleid Resource Use Efficiency Energie niet enige schaarsteprobleem (Timmermans )

49 En schaliegas...

50 Change of geopolitics within EU

51 Waar staan we nu? Leiderschapspositie EU steeds meer onder druk (deal VS-China!) Kans op succes Parijs groter; maar juridische status hoogst onzeker Gat naar 2 C zal groeien; cumulatie van broeikasgassen gaat door

52 The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2 C goal already used Amount Remaining: Total Carbon Budget: Amount Used : GtCO2 GtCO GtCO2 AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

53 Er is hoop Ontwikkelingen mondiaal zetten Europa in beweging (en daarna Nederland.) Prijsontwikkeling duurzame energie spectaculair Power to the people ; onstuitbaar Fossiele bedrijven steeds meer financieel onder druk: divestment!

54 Dank voor uw aandacht Vragen?