1 Market value f real estate Guy Hfman Gérald Henskens Octber 9th, 2014
2 Outline Cntext and issue Slutin Increasing perfrmance Watch ut Return n investment Future imprvements
3 Cntexte and issue One f the missins f Patrimny Dcumentatin = fiscal cntrl n declared value f real prperty in deeds and declaratins T prevent and fight fraud in the matter f registratin duties and inheritance taxes
4 Cntexte and issue Detectin f dubius prperty transactins Establish crrect market value f cnveyed prperty different categries : land, huse, apartment, situatin : anywhere in Belgium indicatin f pririty fr cntrl
5 Slutin Mdelling real prperty data nly huses and apartments multiple regressin with 11 bjective parameters Situatin : street r zne Type : villa, bel-étage, serial cnstructin, bungalw, # facades # flrs Year f cnstructin
6 Slutin Mdelling real prperty data multiple regressin with 11 bjective parameters Quality f cnstructin # garages # entities fr families # rms (apartment) r Surface area (huse) Ttal useable flr surface Date f valuatin
7 Slutin Eliminatin f extremes 1 frmula fr every municipality blk-znege-zneval afdeling nsr cc1 cc2 cc3 cc4 cc5 cc7 cc8 cc11 cc13 cc14 perc.pp. datum VERKOOPWAARDE Vrk Laag Vrk Hg 405804 11001 310 40 a 2 n 1935 n 0 3 225 371 546 23/04/2014 323.648 297.050 350.247 00000405804 AARTSELAAR 0,92 1,08 00405804 AARTSELAAR 0 11001 11001H00405804 02 279.715 AARTSELAAR 11001 AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR 40 a AARTSELAAR 2n n 0 3 tuinpp. AARTSELAAR 1100100310 321 AARTSELAAR 1100100310 11001 11001 280.000 AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR 285.225 283.561 280.000 40 A AARTSELAAR 2N 1.935 N 0 3 321 20.214.0 283.561 279.715 260.394 247.192 268.450 85 285.225 189.133 340.000 371 546 4496 137.641 298.116 7.225 16 Ceff. ppakte3s prgembl gem SEE intercept leeftijdsq cc14_sum day1 day1sq leeftijd prcc1 prcc11 prcc2 prcc34 prcc7 prcc8 cc14sq ppakte3 q kzne - - 171426,282 2943,4647 0,347336 92,462411 0,30745 12 AARTSELAAR 23440,92213 1 12,53121762 1285,136009 0 0 6 0 0,355347881 0,254264912 94 0 0-1,710614027 83 0 323.648
8 Slutin
9 Slutin Calculated market value with minimum/maximum based n Standard Errr f the Estimate Every 2 weeks imprt f new transactin data Selectin f pssibly dubius transactins with theretical return
10 Increasing perfrmance SAS envirnment with training and caching Translatin f the mathematical mdel using E-guide Recruitment f dataminers Autmatin Supprt f external cnsultants
11 Watch ut Business understanding Data understanding Data quality and cleaning Spnsring by managers fr implementatin Feedback frm users
12 Return n investment Ptentially recvering 200 millin eurs in lst prperty taxes per year (nly huses and apartments) Transacties juni 2013 t december 2013 Cde Statuscde betekenis Aantal verkpen Percent verkpen Aantal erfenissen Percent erfenissen 1 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van type inschrijving 46 0,03% 126 0,15% 2 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van verstreken termijn 1.061 0,80% 2.355 2,72% 3 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van type psteller 2.905 2,20% 515 0,59% 4 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van vrafgaande schatting 0 0,00% 1.964 2,27% 5 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van vast recht 544 0,41% 0 0,00% 6 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van nultarief 4.059 3,07% 4.810 5,55% 41 Te cntrleren, Geen mathematisch mdel beschikbaar 48.681 36,81% 32.058 37,00% 47 Te cntrleren, Mathematische waarde niet berekend 8.989 6,80% 7.498 8,65% 51 Niet te cntrleren, Lcwaarde bven bvenkant vrk 18.575 14,04% 4.646 5,36% 52 Niet te cntrleren, Lcwaarde binnen vrk 30.003 22,69% 14.464 16,69% 61 Niet te cntrleren, Lcwaarde gelijk nderkant vrk 694 0,52% 511 0,59% 62 Te cntrleren, Lcwaarde kleiner dan nderkant vrk, geen tarief beschikbaar 137 0,10% 204 0,24% 63 Niet te cntrleren, Theretisch rendement kleiner dan 400 eur 2.194 1,66% 3.302 3,81% 64 Te cntrleren, Theretisch rendement tussen 400 en 1000 eur 3.103 2,35% 3.477 4,01% 65 Te cntrleren, Theretisch rendement grter dan 1000 eur 11.267 8,52% 10.714 12,37% 132.258 100,00% 86.644 100,00%
13 Return n investment Dissuasive effect : unwanted behaviur decreases dramatically when peple realise hw we select and cntrl
14 Future imprvements Mre input frm real estate agents and Regins > frm 11 t 25 parameters Energy Perfrmance Certificate Slar panels Kitchen equipment Sanitary equipment Urbanistic pssibilities Mbility pssibilities Level f maintenance
15 Future imprvements Extensin f the ppulatin > all buildings Use f anther technique > State Space Mdeling > Dutch example Hierarchical Trend Mdel
16 Hierarchical Trend Mdel Used by Dutch administratins fr tax purpses Based n Time Series Explains the value f real estate by husing characteristics, lcatin and time Hierarchy f trends: Cmmn trend Lcatin based trend Building type trend
17 Hierarchical Trend Mdel Lcatin based and building type trends mdelled as deviatins frm the cmmn trend Husing characteristics are time-invariant Lg(price) = influence f characteristics + level cmmn trend + level lcatin based trend + level building type trend + errr term
SAS Frum Twitter Cntest Tweet t win prizes! 6. Het jaarlijks bedrag aan vastgedfraude in België wrdt - alleen vr huizen en appartementen - geschat p A. 200 miljen eur B. 20 miljen eur C. 2 miljard eur Tweet yur answer: Example: @spicyanalytics 6C Prizes t win: 1 st prize: a ticket fr Analytics 2015 2 nd prize: a bk f Prf Bart Baesens: Analytics in a big data wrld 3 rd t 30 th prize: chclates with pepper Start f yur tweet Questin # Yur answer Winners will be cntacted pst-frum! Cpyr i g ht 2013, SAS Ins titut e Inc. All rights res er ve d.