Water in de EU: wat doet Brussel? Prof. Dr. Ad de Roo (1) European Commission Joint Research Centre (2) Faculteit Geowetenschappen- Univ Utrecht

Water in de EU: wat doet Brussel? Prof. Dr. Ad de Roo (1) European Commission Joint Research Centre (2) Faculteit Geowetenschappen- Univ Utrecht

Wie zijn Brussel? de Europese Commissie heeft net zoveel ambtenaren als de stad Parijs, die minder dan 3% van budget opslokken Die behappen vervolgens veel water/milieu beleid, o.a. Water Framework Directive, Floods Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) naast core issues als Landbouw (AGRI) en Regionale Ontwikkeling (REGIO) (zo n 94% van budget gaat weer terug naar lidstaten) 9% van de EC-staf doet onderzoek: Joint Research Centre (JRC), naast het uitbesteden van onderzoek (RTD)

Wat doet Brussel op het gebied water? Voorbereiding en uitvoering van EU wetgeving: Water Framework Directive Floods Directive Marine Strategy Framework Directive Andere beleidsdocumenten: Blueprint to Safeguard Europe s Waters Strategy on Water Scarcity and Droughts Klimaatverandering: "20-20-20" targets - key objectives for 2020: A 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels Raising share of EU energy consumption prod. from renewable resources to 20% A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency mainstreaming climate policies (for mitigation) adaptation strategies in existing policies 2030 policy framework for climate and energy

Wat doet EC-Joint Research Centre? Onderzoek op alle EC policy velden, om te kunnen adviseren in het opstellen, monitoring and handhaving van EU-wetgeving Bv Water Framework Directive, Blueprint Water Controle op landbouwsubsidies, Solidarity Fund Directe ondersteuning van lidstaten met bepaalde diensten Bv EFAS: European Flood Awareness System, EFFIS-bosbranden, EDO-droogte, GDACSaardbevingen/tsunamis

JRC water modelling activities: LISFLOOD topsoil subsoil ES act upper groundwater zone lower groundwater zone EW int P Int Dint T act INF act D us,ls D ls,ugw D pref,gw Q ugw D ugw,lgw Q lgw Q loss Qsr surface runoff routing river channel Gebruikt voor: Monitoring droughts (EDO) Voorspellen overstromingen (EFAS, GloFAS) Water resources modellering Impact van maatregelen in WFD, FD Europa Case-studies Africa & Latin America Incl hydro-economic optimalisation Effecten klimaatverandering en landgebruiksverandering Europese en Globale schaal

Effecten van klimaat-verandering op Europese water resources

Changes in flood hazard in Europe 10 20 30 40 50-30 -20-10 0 10 20 30 40-30 50-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 p-value 60 60 60 60 10-12 0.05 0.1 0.2 50 50 50 50 60 60 8-10 6-8 4-6 2-4 50 50 0-2 2-4 0.2 40 40 0 10 40 40 20 0 Relative change in 100-yr flood event between 19611990 and 2080s 10 20 Significance of change in 100-yr event 1980s 0.1 0.05 4-6 40 40 decrease 0 increase >+60 +40 +20 +10 +5-5 -10-20 -40 <-60-10 decrease change (%) -20 6-8 increase -30 SRES A1B 8-10 0 10 20 10-12 Number of model runs (out of 12) showing consistent increase 2080s Flood magnitude Rojas et al., JGR, 2012 Return period Return period 7

Changes in flood risk in Europe 2000s 2020s SRES A1B 2050s 2080s Relative change in direct flood damages between 1961-1990 and future period (ensemble averaged results for SRES A1B scenario) Rojas et al., Global Environmental Change, 2013 8

Flood risk reduction options Jongman et al., Nature Climate Change, 2014 9

Changes in low-flow in Europe -30-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50-30 -20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 SRES A1B >+60 +40 +20 +10 +5-5 -10-20 -40 <-60 change (%) 60 60 50 50 40 40 0 10 20 60 60 50 50 40 40 0 10 20 p-value 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.05 increase decrease 10-12 8-10 6-8 4-6 2-4 0-2 2-4 4-6 6-8 8-10 10-12 increase decrease Relative change in 20-yr low-flow event between 1961-1990 and 2080s Significance of change in 20-yr event Number of model runs (out of 12) showing consistent decrease Forzieri et al., HESS, 2014 Inter-annual dynamics in simulated 7-day streamflow for the 1980s (blue) and the 2080s (red) 10

Klimaatverandering, wat te doen? Mitigation (emissie beperkingen) Betere informatie basis (nationaal, europees, globaal) Betere monitoring en early warning systemen Onderzoek naar maatregelen die problemen reduceren

Betere early warning systemen: voorbeelden EFAS & GloFAS

European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) 10-day early warning system based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts EFAS started in research model in 1999 (EFFS project) Following 2002 floods, EFAS went pre-operational with additional financing through European Parliament, IDABC, ECHO/MIC and GMES/Copernicus EFAS fully operational since September 2012 under the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. EFAS partners: EFAS has now more than 30 partner authorities New EFAS 2014 features: Improved model Improved visualization of end products on www.efas.eu Publication of forecast verification skills in the EFAS bulletins Find out more on www.efas.eu

EFAS 2006 Voorspelling Praag (Elbe): 12 dagen leadtime March 2006 April 2006

EFAS : European Flood Awareness System developed since 1999, operational in 2012 with Copernicus and MIC/ECHO budget Warnings sent out to Member State authorities and MIC on 12 May 2010 MIC activated 19 May 2010 ; within 12 hours team on-site in Poland!

Sava flood 2014

Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) Flood early warnings for large river basins around the world Developed by: Joint Research Center of the European Commission & European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Forecast lead time: Up to 20 days Minimum river basin size: 10.000 km 2 Forecast frequency: Daily Forecast type: Probabilistic

New developments in EFAS: From EPIC to ERIC: from Precipitation to Runoff EPIC indicator (European Precipitation Index based on Climatology) : Only based on precipitation Introduction of the Runoff Coefficient to weight the different contributions of rainfall Functioning: I. Separation rain and snow II. Introduction coefficient of the runoff Daily initial soil moisture Daily runoff map III. Computing the upstream runoff IV. Assessing the probability of exceedance of different return period events Paper in publication(raynaud et al.) operational implementation foreseen during 2014

Global Water Resources: Climate change, possible measures & possible conflict areas

Estimated current annual freshwater production

JRC s Global Hydrological Model LISFLOOD Global spatial data River network, land cover, elevation etc. Freshwater production Local runoff Model EW int P Daily data: Precipitation, temperature, wind speed etc. topsoil subsoil ES act T act D us,ls INF act upper groundwater zone D ls,ugw D ugw,lgw Int Dint Qsr surface runoff routing Discharge D pref,gw Q ugw lower groundwater zone Q lgw Water demand: from industry, lifestock, irrigation etc. Q loss river channel Water use: depending on availability (local and upstream)

JRC s Global Hydrological Model LISFLOOD Local freshwater production Water exploitation index Analysis Water use regions Percentage of days: Water demand > water availability Local water exploitation index

0.1 degree, daily Water exploitation index (local) Percentage of days: Water demand > water availability Local water exploitation index

Average February Water exploitation index Local Water exploitation index

Average July Water exploitation index Local Water exploitation index

Ebro Euphrates Nile Local Water exploitation index

Water exploitation index

Local water exploitation index

Percentage of days: Water demand > water availability Local water exploitation index

Maatregelen & optimisalatie: Multi-criteria hydro-economic modelling

A

JRC LUMP Land Use Modelling Platform using the land use model Eu-ClueScanner (JRC) Land use / land cover change scenarios until 2030 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) consistent (using CAPRI boundary conditions for 2030) Socio-Economic data used from Eurostat 100m spatial resolution Pan-European JRC

Water consumption 2006 and changes until 2030

LISQUAL output: Water Exploitation Index WEIcns= (Abstraction ReturnFlow) / (Local runoff + Incoming runoff) WEIcns (WEI+, consumption only) WEIabs (abstraction only) JRC

Cost of scenarios

Economic Loss model irrigation 0.12 Damage per m3 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 Damage per m3 0.02 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 Assumptions: - Ratio delivered water <> value is taken as 0.1 - Quadratic function This results in that for every m3 water that is not available for irrigation, the damage is maximally the choke price (0.1 euro in this example) So, e.g, if the required amount of water for irrigation area is 1 Mm3, and Available water (Mm3) Loss (MEuro) 1.0 0.0 MEuro 0.5 0.025 MEuro 0.1 0.081 MEuro 0 0.1 MEuro Choke price: 0.35 Euro/m3 (low value crops) 1.25 Euro/m3 (high value crops)

Optimization InitProcessor Optimizer new percentages of scenarios optimal combination of percentage scenarios PostProcessor CostFunction OptInterface PreProcessor Statistical comparison of scenarios and baseline OUTPUT N P Cost EnvFlow Wei_abs Simplified Biophysical Model INPUT ttoc srun pflow sgw nleach pleach nrunoff (scenarios-baseline) *r

Multicriteria Optimization Investment ( ) A C B 1. Point A and B same investment but point B has better Env. quality I chose B 2. Point C and B same Env. quality but C needs higher investment I chose B Investment ( ) Restrictions Environmental quality 1. Point A is better choice compare with points B-C-D-E 2. The situation is less clear when you are looking to the point A and A. A is lower Cost, but A is better ENVIRONMENTAL quality both options are valid choices. B C E D A A Max Environmental quality Min

Danube: scenario-combination C47 JRC Leakage reduction, Desalination (Black Sea), Urban Greening in Zagreb and Belgrade, Re-Use of Water in Industry in Bulgaria, irrigation water use efficiency, and water savings in households

Danube: scenario-combination C71 JRC No desalination, Leakage reduction only in Bucharest, Urban Greening only in Zagreb, no water-re-use in industry in Bulgaria

Conclusies Brussel zit niet stil. JRC heeft een multi-criteria optimalisatie toolbox ontwikkeld om water beheers-maatregelen hydroeconomisch te evalueren Is al gebruikt voor Blueprint en wordt verder gebruikt voor evaluatie maatregelen door lidstaten voorgesteld in Water Framework Directive en Floods Directive De tool wordt verder ontwikkeld, verbeterd en getest, o.a in Donau, Sava Incl grondwater modelering Economische functions Link met SWAT/EPIC voor water kwaliteit contact: ad.de-roo@jrc.ec.europa.eu