De industrie in : De economie achter het scenario

Transcriptie

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7 : ' start economisch betoog resultatenrekening resultatenrekening 2002 buitenlandse inkoopprijzen trendmatige productiviteit loon per werknemer kostprijs prijzen buitenlandse concurrenten afzetprijzen prijsconcurrentie relevante wereldhandel Nederlandse macro gegevens: - productieketen - productie andere sectoren - bestedingen consumenten - investeringen bedrijven reële export reële binnenlandse afzet: - halffabrikaten - consumptieartikelen - machines omzetwaarde inkoopprijzen Nederland buitenlandse inkoopprijzen reële inkoop inkoopwaarde reële toegevoegde waarde loon per werknemer personeel loonsom afschrijvingen winst resultatenrekening 2003 enz. <

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54 7' * 7+ ''4 * ** '' 7* ' '* ' '* ' *4* * ** ' *, + *+* 9 ' 0.& $ ** 94 4* +*', '' 9'* 4* 1&& 0.& 00(($6($$# #( 3=5-7ED "G HN!E "G IF HN!E IF -Q HN!E -Q IF N!E35F 7%35 HN!E7%35IF 135HN!E 135IF G*35 HN!EG*35IF HN!E I -7E06$(($#$635$ N!E "G 3A50 N!E 3A50 N!E -Q 3A50& N!E35 3A5035 N!E7%353A50$&$35 N!E 1353A50$35 N!EG*35 3A50$$35 N!E 3A50($$#$$# (($$350$35+(($ 35$#635+$.99 * Rekenvolgorde J$($$0 $$$#$#RAS0N!E353$395#S-$ (($0$S5.$00(($3=5#0$,, 0 5 * ' 4 4 $4'4* * 4$*+ 0'4 :/

55 !"#$$%& -%'!% Metalektro !(+'*! 07 :: ;# 8: - ' <4!!&&!&$# &"&(&/.&)*& +&!,%, 68 %!=& /! 5 ( 40 (# >1?&/&@ hemie 47 > 67 # 6> '! 48 //!.?&! 44 Overige industrie! )* :< 78 ;=&)% / 76 &(% $"Q73"Q7F"Q!5[99 0' '' * *.' $ ' + * 4 '. * *. +* ' $,,?+*@ * 7'* : : * ' 7'* '', *4 0' '. + 2 * O'7',6 :4 (&&%E6(&&%*. *, 2 + 7'*,?+*@*? +@* : "@'6$@'# $3L-#.995 ::

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57 $ >'4* * ' + ', * *'.;+ '+4'* '0+4 *' +4 *'* *'4 ' ' * * *'* * ' :* +*' *' *'' * + * ' 0 1,* 0 1 * *'$ *, 1*'4,* $47 '*4*'. '4 0 * * + '+ ' * * *'* 4 4, ' * '* * 4, * * * 1. U 4+$ * * ' $ 2 '* '? 1*+ + '4* '4$4,, '' J* 4 1. $ *' :<

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63 * ?@ * 4+4 ' * -. A * *4 4* ' **,. '9. * 4<% <($, + 4* ' 4 $4* * * * + * 4'4 ',* *$+, '*<P%&)P%& (P%&$ * 4. * *42 O = % + + ZO * = %%%( % & < O%&% ) O#% O + ( 3% = %& % % % O %& %&& O %& + + #& O Z 3& O 7* O F%%( F%' &*' $ *,, ' +*, 4 * * '4* * * ++' * ',4*' * ** *(&&% ',* $* * * = 2 + * 4* +,' 4+, ' * *4 44 = P*-3$5 ;

64 ', #" $ * * ' '<)* ** * , *4 4 + '.'4'' * 4, ** 4 *4 $' '<( $+' * +. * * 4, * 44 * + * 14 + * * ' * 4 +'' + $1. U 4+, * 4, ',* * * ' * ' 44 -$* +*+, * 2 ' '+ $+, * '4 7+4 *+ +* $ U ' *,, * 2 * 2 +'' ',, 2 4 '4, $4 4 ' + ' ** *4, 9 + *. ', * 4 * $' 0 1 +** 4 *+ $,'4 * *'' ;/

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67 (&&%$ (&&&.(&&($ '%&'(&&% (&&%B*+ $ 2:P(&&%P%% 1(&&%( ) *++,*++- 1(&&(( *++* 0T!;/$4H B0.A(&&(14?*++*.(/0 *4(&&(+ * ? +@?14 B0.A(&&(*++* ;,; + *4(&&(. HI *4, 7'+ ', ' *' + * RRK*%##/2 7 + * # %%/ 5KB(&&% H O+ + '*O( %/# %(&&%'<).8# + (&&&?0 * + *',.'211@ 222P(&&&P"3 (&&& 6K +++[ 6 R:4 (&&%!7' $' # (&&%P/4(&&%'')<./& 6K R:4 (&&%$ +** * B0 22P(&&%P%8%84(&&% K %##82! 2 O1. %) ;<

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69 . 7 &.&, $,4' * *4 4 * / 4 6" ) (tabel op volgende pagina) ( "K#*&G>>=##6Q#!"&(") 6" $&$$(&G $$$$$$$&$$( & ;>

70 Prijsstijging inkoop van halffabrikaten en diensten geleverd door Nederlandse bedrijfsleven) 3.5! G D G8 H JEG8 IF G6 H JEG6 IF "M H JEE"M IF "6 H JEE"6 IF H IF N6 H N6 I 0117!% % " ) ( "= " H+ 9 Metalektro < < 055! 05 8 :5 : <5 055 & 45 <5 055!!!& '!!& 8 0> <1 055 && 4> >: 055!!, < 4 : /! ( 45 <5 055 (# hemie 0> 0> 7 > : '! 0< ! > 7 7> 055 Overige industrie! < )* 45 < $ "# 0: 7> 055 % /#! 04 7< 055 (. 0: 7> 055 ($$$ <9

71 ) 35 "Q! D$F "Q 3 "Q7 $5 %! "? 9 Metalektro 15 15! & &!! 45!& 45 '!!& 45 &&!! 45, 85 /! 45 ( 45 (# 45 hemie '! 45! 45 Overige industrie! )* $ 45 "# 45 % 45 /#! 45 (. 45 Toelichting op vermenigvuldigers P BGP ""$$#73>=/5+!"&($$3!"&Q#;<>>>5#A <

72 !*++.) 8D! I JK! I D 3;57 *!E D$F * 3 *7E $5 3<51(($ -!E D$F - 3-7E $5 Metalektro %! 15 = 15! &!! 45!& 45 '!!& 45 &&!! 45, 85 /! 45 ( 45 (# 45 hemie '! 45! 45 Overige industrie! )* $ 45 "# 45 % 45 /#! 45 ( " B 7B -$($)$ ""$$8 #"7#1Q6#>=/#@%6'#!"&G!# +!"&($$3!"&Q#;<>>>5#A <.

73 )" 3=5"Q!D "Q HIF "Q H IF "Q 3 "Q7 "Q! 5 #! "? "? 0 "? Metalektro 5&7 5&4 5 0&4 5&: 5! 5&1 5&: 5&7 0&0 5&0 5&> &!! 5&8 5&1 0&6!& 5&4 5&6 0&8 '!!& 5&< 5&> 0&8 &&!! 5&1 5&< 0&8, 0&1 5&6 0&8 /! 5&6 5&0 5 ( 0&0 5&0 5 (# 5&1 5&4 5 hemie 0&6 5&< 5&< 0&6 0&5 5 0&: 5&1 5 0&6 5&8 5 '! 5&> 5&4 0&0! 5&7 5 5&> Overige industrie! 0&5 5&8 0&5 5&8 5&6 5 )* 5&: 5&6 0&8 5&5 5 0&5 + 5&6 5 0&5 $ 5&0 5 5&8 "# 5&8 5 5&8 % 5&4 5 0&5 /#! 5&8 5 5 (. 4& " 2 Vermenigvuldigers groei van de wereldmarkt in exportvergelijking Metalektro en Overige industrie: $0A>>/&>>= #($ $$$#$>=/&>>=%A$ ($ <

74 $($$'$'$$ 0A3 $$- ##A$-& $>=/&>>=#>>/&>>=$ (($$#M$$$ )#$$&(>>:&.999% Vermenigvuldigers prijsstijging t.o.v. buitenland in exportvergelijking Metalektro en Overige industrie "!"&($$3!"&Q#;<>>>5$$& $6# $16# (3...5 Vermenigvuldigers groei van de wereldmarkt en prijsstijging t.o.v. buitenland in uitvoervergelijking hemische industrie: $GK 7V$$$0 A$A3($ 5$$(0A# $0>=/&>>=>=/&.99( $$( %WW"#$(( G$(($ 6#$1 6#( </

75 Export van diensten door de Nederlandse industrie)" 3>5"ED " HIF " 3 "Q7 "Q! 5 #! " " Metalektro 5&7: 5&8 5&7: 5&8! 5&7: 5&8 5&7: 5&8 &!! 6&5 5&8!& 5&5 5&8 '!!& 0&8 5&8 &&!! 0&8 5&8, 5&7: 5&8 /! 5&7: 5&8 ( 5&7: 5&8 (# 5&7: 5&8 hemie 0&06 5 0&06 5 0&06 5 0&06 5 '! 0&06 5! 0&06 5 Overige industrie! 5&::8 5 5&::8 5 )* 5&::8 5 5&:: &::8 5 $ 5&: 5 "# 5&: 5 % 5&: 5 /#! 5&: 5 ( " B Vermenigvuldigers groei van de wereldmarkt :!"&($$3!"&Q#;<>>>5 $$&$#($2-@&#& '#@$'#@$('#@&#&#' '$'0A3 "K&&5@$'>>:&>>> Vermenigvuldigers prijsstijging t.o.v. buitenland: *5"P8P%### 4.,** * <:

76 /.**.) +* !ED "G HN!E "G IF HN!E IF -Q HN!E -Q IF HN!E IF N!E35F 7%35 HN!E7%35IF 135HN!E 135IF G*35 HNEG*35I "# +%# " 'DD 6550 "!, " + "/ ) 2 9 Metalektro " 5A4 6A> * >A> 0A< 0A4! 6A> 5A6 08A: 6A6 * 8A1 :A7 5A< 0A0 <A> 6A8 0A0 * 5A1 & 8A7 5A4 5A0 5A0!!!& :A8 5A6 '!!& :A0 5A0 5A6 && 5A0 1A: 5A6 5A> 5A4!!, 05A: 5A6 * /! 04A1 5A6 5A0 ( 05A6 (# 0A< "# +%# " $D 6550 '!! " +- ) (2 9 hemie 6A6 5A6 5A8 5A6 5A0 5A6 6A6 5A6 5A0 5A0 5A4 04A< * 07A6 5A1 5A1 >A8 5A> * 5A> 4A0 '! 5A4 5A0 8A> 5A6 5A0 * 5A6! 5A7 5A0 6A8 5A0 5A: 5A> * <;

77 "# +%# - L " DD 6550 % " + -? ) = 9 Overige industrie! 0A4 5A6 8A6 5A8 5A0 5A< 0A7 08A8 5A1 )* 1A< >A4 6A> * + <A1 5A8 $ 0A8 5A0 5A0 5A0 4A6 "# 8A8 5A0 5A: 5A0 >A5 % 5A0 :A6 /#! 5A0 5A: 5A0 0A< 5A: (. 5A0 5A0 5A> " "K#3-5*&G>>=# "K#3-5*&G.999$ :?9$ <<

78 )** 35- GDN!EF 3 - G N!E 535[ [3 5!! 0 3% % - D9D Metalektro 5&48 8 = 5&48 8! 5&48 8 5&48 8 &!! 5&48 8!& 5&48 8 '!!& 5&48 8 &&!! 5&48 8, 5&48 8 /! 5&48 8 ( 5&48 8 (# 5&48 8 hemie 5&48 8 5&48 8 5&48 8 5&48 8 '! 5&48 8! 5&48 8 Overige industrie! 5&48 8 5&48 8 )* 5&48 8 5& &48 8 $ 5&48 8 "# 5&48 8 % 5&48 8 /#! 5&48 8 (. 5&48 8 G$$ 0$9#:?$0$$( $#&9#:$-$ $$<9?13&5[ [3 - _ 5D39#<5[9#:[3 - _ 5D9#:+3 - _ 5:? <=

79 .)** GD- GF. 3 7 G - G 5[. [3 7! 5 Metalektro! % 6 3% %M% 3 7! 59D 5&68 4 = 5&68 4! 5&68 4 5&68 4 &!! 5&68 4!& 5&68 4 '!!& 5&68 4 &&!! 5&68 4, 5&68 4 /! 5&68 4 ( 5&68 4 (# 5&68 4 hemie 5&68 4 5&68 4 5&68 4 5&68 4 '! 5&68 4! 5&68 4 Overige industrie! 5&68 4 5&68 4 )* 5&68 4 5& &68 4 $ 5&68 4 "# 5&68 4 % 5&68 4 /#! 5&68 4 (. 5&68 4 G$$ 0$$6$$ 6$#&9#:$ -3 7! 5? <>

80 Vast personeel) 35ED_"7 F35_"7 )8%6 )8%6 # B! B J0 DE@" )(' )('! )(' )(' 9! Metalektro 5&68 6&: 4&1 6&5 = 5&68 6&: 4&1 6&5! 5&85 5&> 0&7 6&8 0&55 6&4 6&4 4&6 &!! 5&68 5&> 0&6 6&8!& 5&68 5&: 6&8 6&< '!!& 5&68 5&6 5&8 5&: &&!! 5&68 0&4 6&1 6&0, 5&68 5&6 0&< 6&: /! 5&85 6&8 0&1 0&4 ( 5&85 4&< 4&> 5&6 (# 5&85 5&8 0&> :&6 hemie 5&68 4&5 8&8 4&4 5&68 4&5 8&8 4&4 5&68 4&5 8&8 4&4 5&68 4&5 8&8 4&4 '! 5&<8 4&6 :&5 4&6! 5&<8 0&8 6&> :&6 Overige industrie! 5&68 0&0 4&5 6&8 5&<8 0&1 6&8 6&> )* 5&85 0&1 6&6 5&8 5&<8 5&< 5&4 0&7 + 5&85 6&: 5&> 4&8 $ 5&68 5&0 5&7 0&4 "# 5&68 5&0 6&6 6&7 % 5&<8 5&< 0&< :&0 /#! 5&68 5&6 5&6 5&> (. 5&68 5&6 00&6 0:&< _"7 )8%6 )8%6 (>=:&.9992&## $#>>:&.999#>>:$ 0((09#.:#$ ($$$($$ -0((0$$&0 $$>=<&>>> =9

81 3&>>:&.9995$ $35 )1* Q6$3/5 KED H 6 I *3:5 7ED` KEF 3 7E!E5 *! N0& %! O0 %! P Metalektro 0A08 5A68 0A08 5A68! 5A< 0A08 5A68 0A0 0A08 5A68 &!! 6A5 0A58 5A68!& <A5 0A5 5A68 '!!&% 0A< 0A5 5A68 &!! 0A< 0A54 5A68, 0A> 0A08 5A68 /! 0A4 0A08 5A68 ( 0A08 5A68 (# 5A7 0A08 5A68 hemie 5A7 0A0< 5A5> 5A7 0A0< 5A5> 5A7 0A0< 5A5> 5A7 0A0< 5A5> '! 0A4 0A0< 5A5>! 0A5 0A0< 5A5> Overige industrie! 5A< 0A:> 5A:8 0A6 0A:> 5A:8 )* 5A< 0A45 5A61 0A6 0A45 5A61 + 5A< 0A45 5A61 $ 0&5 0A45 5A45 "# 6&5 0A45 5A45 % 6&5 5A<5 5A45 /#! 6&5 0A55 5A45 (. 8&5 0A45 5A45 "!"&($$3!"&Q#;<>>>5$$ &$#($ =

82 06 0>>:&>>>3$$ "K&&#!"&7%-&5 (. $$3`5$$>>:& >>>#((6$$$ J$$$$ 3!"&Q#;<>>>5.)21 Q6$3;5*KED %35 *3<5*7ED*KEF * 3 *7E *!E 5.! - 'D Metalektro 5&1 5A6<< 5&1 5A6<<! 5&1 5A6<< 5&1 5A6<< & 5&1 5A6<<!!!& 0&7 5&6<< '!!& 0&8 5&6<< &&!! 5&1 5A6<<,, 0 5A6<< /! /! 0 5A6<< ( (# 0 5A6<< hemie '% 5 5 '% 5 5 '% 5 5 '% 5 5 '! '% 5 5! '% 5 5 Overige industrie! '% 5 5 '% 5 5 )*, 0 5&6<< D 0 5&6<< $ D 0 5&4 "# '% 5 5 % D 0 5&4 /#! '% 5 5 (. 5 5 =.

83 &#'0$$ >>:&>>>3$$ "K&&#!"&7%-&5-&0# &&$# $&$ Vermenigvuldigers I "!"&($$3!"&Q#;<>>>5.***)+ * 3=5-7ED "G HN!E "G IF - HN!E IF -Q HN!E -Q IF N!E35F 7%35 HN!E7%35IF 135HN!E 135IF 135HN!EG*35IF HN!E I 6550 "# +%# ' 'DD!, & " + ) 2 ' 9 Metalektro " 0A5 0<A0 06A4 4A7 0A1 4A:! 0A: 5A0 4A7 * 0A: 6A: 5A4 5A1 5A4 00A8 5A> * 6A: 5A6 & :A> 5A0 0A> 5A0 5A6!!!& 1A< 5A: 5A6 5A0 5A0 '!!& 0A: 06A: 5A< 0A< :A8 6A4 && 0A0 1A5 5A4 6A< 5A0 *!!, 6:A0 5A8 * /! 5A8 ( 4A> (# 60A1 =

84 "# +%# ' $DD '!! " + ) (2 9 hemie 00A5 0A6 0A0 0A5 5A4 5A< :A< 07A6 * 00A7 <A5 0A4 5A0 <A4 5A> * 4A0 60A< '! 5A4 5A7 7A> 5A1 5A1 * 0A0! 5A7 5A4 :A> 5A4 5A: 0A0 * "# +%# - L ' DD 6550 % " + -? ) = 9 Overige industrie! 5A< 5A6 0>A> 5A6 5A6 5A0 0A7 5A4 )* 5A0 5A0 0:A: 0<A> 6A: 5A6 * + 06A0 5A6 4A4 $ 5A1 5A0 5A0 01A0 5A0 :A0 "# 0A6 5A0 5A0 5A0 >A5 5A0 % 5A8 4A: * /#! 5A0 5A4 5A8 (. 5A0 5A5 Toelichting op vermenigvuldigers VM_ " "K#3-5*&G.99 =/

85 )")" 3>5"Q7DHI # Metalektro 0&0 0&0! 0&0 0&0 &!! 4&5!& 4&5 '!!& 0&8 &&!! 4&5, 0&0 /! 0&0 ( 0&0 (# 0&0 hemie 0&0 0&0 0&0 0&0 '! 0&0! 0&0 Overige industrie! 0&0 0&0 )* 0&0 0&0 + 0&0 $ 0&0 "# 0&0 % 0&0 /#! 0&0 (. 0&0 6" 2 "!"&($$3!"&Q#;<>>>5L3.995 $##($$(&$J$ -@&#&'#@$'#@$('#@&# &#''$'0 3 "K&&5@$'>>:& >>> =:

86 .7!"# $!! %&!! ' " & () $! * +,! *! $ *! -., *!!,! # $!/", *!! ' (%*!!!0! ),! %*, *) $!1"', & * (!!!/) 3(0!45 " ;%% ;%"/ " % " " #% I -!!& 0 % I!& 6 /I!& 4J0K6? I -!!& : & %?I &!& 8?/I!& >J4K: I -!! & < % I! & 7 /I! & 1J<K7 - I -!%? & % 05 =;

87 /1!45 " -I ;%% %% ;%"/ " )% ".!%? & -II %%? HLI )B.!! & " H8.!!! % " #% 00 06J05K00 04J4K>K1K06 0:J6K8K7K00 H8I.!! % "& % 08J0K:K<K05 J04 0: "? '*!3!# # 2 0> "? B'!% ; 0< "?> '*!3! 2 07J0>K0< "I '*! 2 01 H<I % 65J08K0>K01 I -%.!!%!! -& % 60 I -%! -& 66 II - -& 64J60K66? )! 6:J0:K0<K66 H I "!%A!Q,A "!! 68J65K60 =<

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