Objectives 2. Power Source Development Scenarios

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1 Objectives 2. Power Source Development To select scenarios of annual cost saving analysis for optimal peak supply development plans 1 2 Presentation Outline Features of the revised th MP Conditions & assumptions of scenarios Next step Features of the revised th MP 3 4 Power System of Vietnam Slender geography Historical changes in demand profile Seasonal fluctuation of supply capability Especially hydropower out put International electricity exchanges trends GWh 9.8%/yr, MW 9.1%/yr Yearly generation Base case Peak demand Base case (GWh) 2, 2, 1, 1, JICA, IE-Base Pmax (MW) 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, JICA, IE-Base

2 Power Development Plan in 22 (1) Power Development Plan in 22 (2) Capacity & Composition based on the th revised MP Whole system % 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Capacity of divided systems Installed capacity (GW) Central & South Power Development Plan in 22 (3) Composition of divided systems Central & South 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Installed capacity 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % PSPP GT CC Target Year 21, 22 21, 22 21, 22 System Whole, N C&S Whole, C&S Whole, C&S Installed capacity - 1% - 1% 2% - Limit* Capacity of domestic interconnection 1-22MW 1-22MW 1-22MW Timing of Son La 24 or 24 or 24 or Base, High, Base, High, Base, High, conditions Load Profile Load Profile Load Profile Power purchase from China, Laos, Cambodia Rise in fuel prices Base, 2 Base, 2 Base, 2 11 Results of Preliminary study Preliminary study identified four issues Regional differences in electricity demand and power sources composition Plans for international electricity exchange Actual operations of hydropower plants - Differences between dry and rainy seasons Comparison of costs among peaking supplies 12 2

3 Impacts of development timing Arranging Power development to meet the system reliability criteria Timing of development of PSPP Timing of development of thermal power plants Timing of extension of domestic transmission systems Interconnection between Thailand and Vietnam 13 Considering risks Progress of Son La hydropower development Progress of power purchase from neighbor Change of demand characteristics Peak shift, Load factor Rise in fuel prices 14 Results of screening curve analysis PSPP, GT and CC in order have an economical advantage for peaking supplies Annual costs (US$/kW) ANNUAL COSTS 22 PSPP coal GT CC COAL Parameters of (1) Selection of economical peaking supplies To reflect the results of screening analysis Divided systems Capacity of domestic interconnection % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Capacity Factor (%) 1 16 Parameters of (2) Timing of development of Son La hydropower conditions Historical changes in demand profile Power purchase from neighbor Rise in fuel prices 17 PSPP GT CC Target Year 21, 22 21, 22 21, 22 System Whole, N C&S Whole, C&S Whole, C&S Installed capacity - 1% - 1% 2% - Limit* Capacity of domestic interconnection 1-22MW 1-22MW 1-22MW Timing of Son La 24 or 24 or 24 or Base, High, Base, High, Base, High, conditions Load Profile Load Profile Load Profile Power purchase from China, Laos, Cambodia Rise in fuel prices Base, 2 Base, 2 Base,

4 Conditions & assumptions of scenarios Target year: 21, 22 Power system structure: Conditions a single system, divided systems Power demand: revised th Master Plan (Base Case) Development plan: ditto Output of conventional hydropower: % out put for GWh, 9% out put for MW Peak duration time of PSPP: 7 hours 19 2 Conditions for divided systems Power Forecast used for the Study Base case Divided systems Planned power plants in C system mainly supply S system Energy demand (GWh) 22 Whole 21,367 72,7 C&S 127,9 Divided 2 systems: N and C&S Peak demand (MW) Load factor ,66 7.% 12, % 22, % Historical change of other A peak time is shifted from night to daytime Japan TEPCO July 21 Aug. 199 July 198 Sep. 197 Jan Historical change of other Thailand Daily Load Curves on each Daily Max. DEMAND (MW) 1, 14, , , , 1, , , , , 199, , , 2, TIME 24 4

5 Historical change of other Malaysia DEMAND (MW) 1, 9, 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6,,, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, Daily Load Curves on each Daily Max TIME Regression analysis To provide demand data for optimization analysis, historical hourly demand data are categorized into the following 3 types. Peak Day: average of the maximum 3 days in each month Weekday: average of weekdays except the maximum 3 days and holidays Holiday: average of Sunday and holidays in each month 26 Regression analysis for hourly demand Regression formula Consumption (MW) Hourly demand forecast Daily Load Curve (Weekday) Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep Forecasts of consumption at i (1-24) o'clock Historical data Projection Consumption (MW) Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan hr(mw) = A1X1+B1X2+ +P1X16+C1 2 hr(mw) = A2X1+B2X2+ +P2X16+C2 24hr(MW) = A1X1+B1X2+ +P1X16+C1 : X1,X2,,X16; Explanatory Variable (Population, GDP, Temperature, Humidity, Population of electrification) Ai,Bi,,Pi; Regression Coefficient 28 Assumptions of Peak Shift Conditions & Assumptions for output of hydropower Peak is going to shift night to daytime The north region (normalized: 7pm=1) The south region (normalized: 7pm=1) 14% 12% % % % 28 4% % % % 12% % % % 28 4% % % power supply capacities Firm capacity(mw): 9% probability Out put Minimum capacity(mw): Dry season(jan. May, Dec.): 2% of firm capacity Rainy season(jun Nov.): 4% of firm capacity Annual and Monthly generation(gwh): % probability generation 3

6 Assumptions for power development plan To arrange Power development plan PDP arranged to satisfy LOLE 24hr Incorporated power purchase from Laos Base case not included PSPP, GT 31 Effects from Son La hydropower To change operations of Da river system Hoa Binh 9% out put w and w/o Son La Monthly Supply Capability (MW) 2, 2, 1, 1, before Son La after Son La Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 32 Assumptions for domestic interconnections Capacity of interconnection between N and C&S systems None Saturated capacity on effects of reliability improvement Planned capacity in MP: 22MW Effects from interconnections Utilization of peak supplies among interconnected systems Reduction in total reserve capacities Saturated capacity on effects of reliability improvement Interconnection between Vietnam and Reduction MW C & S Total Timing and capacity of interconnection between Thailand and Vietnam are important Capacity MW

7 B/ 2/97 PM3 SH reserves Hanoi A lot of gas reservoirs in South Limitation of potential 12.6GW, 77TWh (cf=7%) in Ho Chi Minh City Danang -3-2 Area Developer SH Maurel & Prom 1 (HN) Carigali -1(DH) VSP -2 BP -3 BP 6-1 BP 7,8 VAMEX 9-1 VSP 11-2 KNOC 12 SAMEDAN 1-1 CLJOC 1-2 JVPC 16-1 HLJOC 16-2 Conoco 112 GazProm B/ Unocal 2/97 Unocal 133,134-1 Conoco PM3 CAA Talisman 12,16 ATI 111 OMV Next step What do we need to do in the next stage? Selected scenarios will be examined Quantification of annual costs saving -and-supply simulation Power system analysis Stability Power supply reliability 39 Annual cost saving analysis(1) System operations are simulated by replacing thermal power plants with PSPP. Changes in operations and annual costs are identified. 4 Annual cost saving analysis(2) Annual costs 14% 12% 1% 98% 96% 94% 92% 9% 88% Image system in 22 Variable Costs Fixed Costs Annual Costs % % 1% 1% 2% PSPP Install-rate (%) 41 The End Thank you for your attention. 42 7