Werk voor lagergeschoolde mensen: lessen en vragen uit een vergelijkende analyse voor België en Nederland

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Francisca Brander
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1 Werk voor lagergeschoolde mensen: lessen en vragen uit een vergelijkende analyse voor België en Nederland VLOR 7 juni 2017 Ive Marx

2 Waar we voor staan Tewerkstellingsgraad bij kortgeschoolden en mensen met migratieachtergrond blijft véél te laag ook in Vlaanderen Ondanks uitgaven voor actief arbeidsmarktbeleid die bij de hoogste in Europa liggen al decennialang Is er dan gewoon geen werk voor hen? Elders blijkbaar wel Nederland bv. combineert veel hogere tewerkstelling bij kortgeschoolden met lagere armoede voor lagere uitgaven. Hoe? 1

3 Narratief Meer mensen aan het werk in Nederland, ook lagergeschoolden Niet door meer gesubsidieerde/publieke tewerkstelling Wel veel meer atypische en relatief laagbetaalde arbeid Desondanks toch minder armoede Hoe komt dat nu? 2

4 Waarom Nederland?

5 Employment rates 4

6 5

7 Meer mensen aan het werk Nederland doet het voor alle opleidingsprofielen structureel een stuk beter

8 Employment rate BE & NL, people aged 20-64, Belgium the Netherlands EU-15 Source: Eurostat 2016: EU-LFS 7

9 95,0 Employment rate men by educational attainment, BE&NL, people aged 20-64, ,0 85,0 80,0 75,0 70,0 65,0 60,0 55,0 50, Low skilled Belgian men Middle skilled Belgian men High skilled Belgian men Low skilled Dutch men Middle skilled Dutch men High skilled Dutch men Source: Eurostat 9

10 100,0 Employment rate men by educational attainment, BE&NL, people aged 25-49, ,0 90,0 85,0 80,0 75,0 70,0 65,0 60, Low skilled Belgian men Middle skilled Belgian men High skilled Belgian men Low skilled Dutch men Middle skilled Dutch men High skilled Dutch men Source: Eurostat 10

11 90,0 Employment rate women by educational attainment, BE&NL, people aged 20-64, ,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20, Low skilled Belgian women Middle skilled Belgian women High skilled Belgian women Low skilled Dutch women Middle skilled Dutch women High skilled Dutch women Source: Eurostat 11

12 18,0 Unemployment rate men by educational attainment, BE&NL, people aged 20-64, ,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0, Low skilled Belgian men Middle skilled Belgian men High skilled Belgian men Low skilled Dutch men Middle skilled Dutch men High skilled Dutch men Source: Eurostat 13

13 20,0 Unemployment rate women by educational attainment, BE&NL, people aged 20-64, ,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0, Low skilled Belgian women Middle skilled Belgian women High skilled Belgian women Low skilled Dutch women Middle skilled Dutch women High skilled Dutch women Source: Eurostat 15

14 Voor vergelijkbare uitgaven inzake actief arbeidsmarktbeleid Zij het met andere bestedingen

15 18

16 Maar veel meer atypische arbeid in Nederland

17 50,0 Part-time employment as a share of total employment (%), people aged 20-64, ,0 40,0 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, EU15 Belgium Netherlands Source: Eurostat 22

18 40 Involuntary part-time employment as a share of total part-time employment (%), EU15 Belgium Netherlands Source: Eurostat 23

19 16,0 Temporary employment as a share of total employment (%), ,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4, EU15 Belgium Netherlands Source: Eurostat 24

20 Temporary employment agency workers (%), ,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1, EU15 Belgium Netherlands Source: Eurostat 25

21 Employees working on weekends (%), ,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10, Source: Eurostat EU15 Belgium Netherlands 26

22 Employees working on Sundays (regularly) (%), ,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, Source: Eurostat EU15 Belgium Netherlands 27

23 Employees working at night (regularly) (%), EU15 Belgium Netherlands Source: Eurostat 29

24 14 Self-employed persons as a percentage of active population, BE&NL, people aged 20-64, BE with employees BE without emp NL with employees NL without employees Source: Eurostat (own calculations) 30

25 En meer relatief laagbetaalde jobs

26 30 Incidence of low-pay (%), Source: OECD Note: data for the Netherlands refer to

27 20,00 Incidence of low-pay (%), BE & NL, 2006/10/14 18,00 16,00 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0, BE Eurostat NL Eurostat BE OECD NL OECD Note: OECD data for the Netherlands refer to

28 Incidence of low-pay (%), BE & NL, ,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, Netherlands (FTE) Netherlands (head count) Belgium Source BE: OECD Source NL: Wiemer Salverda, Brian Nolan, Bertrand Maitre and Peter Mühlau (2001) 35

29 En toch heeft Nederland betere armoedeuitkomsten

30 30,0 At-risk-of-poverty rate by education, BE & NL, people aged 18-64, ,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0, Belgium low skilled Belgium middle skilled Belgium high skilled Dutch low skilled Dutch middle skilled Dutch high skilled Source: Eurostat 38

31 In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate, people aged 18-64, ,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3, Belgium Netherlands Source: Eurostat 40

32 At-risk-of-poverty rate for people (0-59y) living in (quasi-)jobless households, Source: Eurostat EU18 Netherlands Belgium 44

33 22 Child poverty, Source: Eurostat EU18 Belgium Netherlands 45

34 Hoe komt dat nu? Van macro naar micro-niveau

35 Temporary workers eq_disp HH income active age (18-64). relative to poverty line NL total workers BE total workers NL temporary workers BE temporary workers Source: EU-SILC own calculations 50

36 Part-time workers eq_disp HH income active age (18-64). relative to poverty line NL total workers BE total workers NL strictly PT employee BE strictly PT employee Source: EU-SILC own calculations 51

37 Low paid (part-time and full-time) workers eq_disp HH income active age (18-64). relative to poverty line BE total workers BE FYPT low paid BE FYFT low paid BE all FY workers NL total workers NL FYPT low paid NL FYFT low paid NL all FY workers Source: EU-SILC own calculations 52

38 Het profiel van werknemers in relatief laagbetaalde job Of, waarom laagbetaald niet arm betekent

39 De rol van sociale uitkeringen

40 Composition active age population (18-64). by household work-intensity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% HH_WI = 1 HH_WI = ]0.8, 1[ HH_WI = ]0.5, 0.8] HH_WI = ]0,0.5] HH_WI = 0 20% 10% 0% BE Source: EU-SILC own calculations NL 60

41 Composition active age population (18-64). by personal income source(s) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% only earnings both benefits and earnings only benefit income no income 20% 10% 0% BE NL Source: EU-SILC own calculations; Note: earnings = income as an employee or income from self-employment 61

42 Share combining benefits with earnings, by benefit type BELGIUM NETHERLANDS unemployment 47,5 82,0 old-age 12,3 64,6 survival 27,7 53,0 sickness 62,8 70,3 disability 13,1 32,7 education 61,7 83,7 62

43 Adequacy of social benefits for jobless households, relative to the poverty line BELGIUM NETHERLANDS average median average median sum all individual benefits (1) sum individual benefits at HH-level (2) sum all benefits at HH-level (3) NOTE 1: individual benefits = unemployment + old age + survivor + sickness + disability + education NOTE 2: household benefits = child-related + housing + social exclusion (1) is sum of all individual benefits (2) is sum of all individual benefits of all household members (3) is (2) + household benefits Source: EU-SILC own calculations; 64

44 Living standard relative to poverty threshold, by work-intensity eq_disp HH income active age (18-64), relative to poverty line BE total BE HH_WI = 0 BE HH_WI ]0,1[ NL total NL HH_WI = 0 NL HH_WI ]0,1[ 66

45 Nog veel vragen... Meer werk waarom? - meer atypische/laagbetaald werk? - rol loonmatiging, productmarktregulering, etc - ondersteunend beleid? kinderopvang, openbaar vervoer - aanbodbeleid: werkincentieven, conditionaliteiten - aanpak arbeidsbemiddeling - Meer combinatie arbeidsinkomen-uitkering in NL: hoe werkt dat? 67

46 Extra slides

47 69

48 70

49 71

50 72

51 73

52 Labour force participation rate Labour market outcomes: employment rates Men Men Men Women Women Women 74

53 Employment rates for population aged by educational attainment and country of birth,

54 Share of people aged neither in employment nor in education and training, by educational attainment level, 2015,% 76

55 77

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