Water & klimaatverandering

Transcriptie

1 Water & klimaatverandering Te veel & te weinig water Uitdagingen en kansen Patrick Willems KU Leuven - Afdeling Hydraulica

2 Water-gerelateerde klimaatrisico s Meer hydrologische extremen: Te veel en te weinig water Kustoverstromingen Droogte / Watertekorten / Milieuimpact Fluviale / rivieroverstromingen Pluviale / rioleringsoverstromingen

3 Wereld Economisch Forum: mondiale risico s

4 Zijn de klimaattrends reeds zichtbaar?

5 Historische klimaatevolutie Brouwers et al. (2015), MIRA Klimaatrapport 2015 Over waargenomen en nog verwachte klimaatveranderingen, Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij i.s.m. KU Leuven, VITO en KMI, Aalst, september 2015, 147 p.

6 Historische klimaatevolutie Willems P. (2013), Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe, Climatic Change, 120(4),

7 Historische klimaatevolutie Willems P. (2014), Actualisatie van de extreme-waarden-statistiek van stormvloeden aan de Belgische kust, KU Leuven, Rapport voor Vlaamse Overheid - Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium, oktober 2014

8 Projecten in het Zuiden

9 Wat brengt de toekomst?

10 Impactanalyse klimaatverandering

11 Klimaatverandering: hogere temperaturen Verandering temperatuur voor Vlaanderen -> onzekerheid o.b.v. >200 klimaatmodelruns: mitigatieeffect adaptatienood Van Uytven, E., Willems, P. (2018), Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium, Journal of Hydrology, 558, 9-19

12 Klimaatverandering: meer verdamping Verandering temperatuur voor Vlaanderen -> onzekerheid o.b.v. >200 klimaatmodelruns: Huidig klimaat

13 Klimaatverandering > meer hydrologische extremen Verandering in neerslag voor Vlaanderen -> onzekerheid o.b.v. >200 klimaatmodelruns:

14 Stad Antwerpen: hitte-eilandeffect VITO (2014)

15 Stad Antwerpen: hitte-eilandeffect VITO (2014)

16 Impact op pluviale overstromingen Stad Antwerpen Huidig klimaat: Hoog klimaatscenario 2050:

17 Zeespiegelstijging Waterhoogte Belgische kust sinds toekomstprojectie: Kustmaregraaf Oostende: 1.7 tot 4 mm/jaar sinds 1927 ± 20cm in 100 jaar toekomstprojectie tot 2100: +20cm tot +80cm Weisse, R., Bellafiore, D., Menendez, M., Mendez, F., Nicholls, R., Umgiesser, G., Willems, P. (2014), Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts, Coastal Engineering, 87, 4-14

18 Impact op Schelde-estuarium Herziening Sigmaplan ( ): +60 cm Terugkeerperiode eerste overstroming Schelde tussen Gent en Vlissingen: Huidig klimaat, na realisatie gecontroleerd overstromingsgebied Kruibeke-Bazel- Rupelmonde (13de gecontr.overstromingsgeb. eerste Sigmaplan; 600 ha): 350 jaar Na 60cm zeespiegelstijging en geen verdere maatregelen: 25 jaar ±4000 ha extra overstromingsgebied nodig: ±4000 jaar Optimaal herzien Sigmaplan (na KBA: 1325 ha, 656 ha tegen km dijkverhogingen + muur Antwerpen)

19 Impact op hydrologische droogte Vlaanderen, toekomstig klimaat: Afname laagwaterafvoeren: tussen -30% en -70% Gevolgen voor waterbeschikbaarheid (drinkwater, industrieel water, landbouw, scheepvaart), waterkwaliteit, ecologie Ntegeka, V., Wolfs, V., Willems, P. (2017), 'Impact van klimaatverandering op meteorologische droogte', voor VMM Wolfs, V., Willems, P. (2019), Analyse historische droogte en ontwerprichtlijnen bronmaatregelen onder klimaatverandering, vr VMM

20 Impact op hydrologische droogte Vlaanderen, toekomstig klimaat: Afname laagwaterafvoeren: tussen -30% en -70% Gevolgen voor waterbeschikbaarheid (drinkwater, industrieel water, landbouw, scheepvaart), waterkwaliteit, ecologie Tabari H, Taye MT, Willems P (2015) Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21th century. Global and Planetary Change, 131, Laureaat Prijs Koning Boudewijnstichting

21 Impact op hydrologische droogte Kabalebo-rivierbekken Suriname: Impact op rivierdebieten en hydroelektriciteit: 290 MW dispatchable power -> reservoir outlet discharge of 530 m 3 /s at 56 m head for the Avanavero dam PRECIS regional climate model projections: drier conditions by : potential decrease of 30 to 40 MW Optimal regulation of diversion flow in accordance with power needs IUC Anton de Kom Universiteit Suriname Donk, P., Van Uytven, E., Willems, P. (2018), Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 C versus 2.0 C global temperature rise, towards 2100, for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname, Regional Environmental Change, 18(8),

22 Impact op hydrologische droogte Altiplano Bolivië: Impact on water availability: Temperature increase (up to >5 C by 2090s) Glacier melting No significant rainfall change in dry season Increased rainfall in wet season Warmer climate: Reduced number of frost days Impact on Quinoa (i.c.w. profs. Dirk Raes, Jan Diels): Reduced average cropping cycle (up to months): accelerated crop development -> reduced yield production Increased water stress & reduced crop yield of Mg/ha Adaptation needs: changes in sowing date, use of varieties with longer growing cycle to get higher yields and deficit irrigation VLIR TEAM project, Universidad San Andres, La Paz, Bolivia PhD Gavi Alavi

23 Impact zeespiegelstijging & droogte Ma estuarium & Ha Tinh Povince, Vietnam: Low flow extremes Ma estuary: decrease to 25 % or 15 % for mid and late 21 st century Urban and river-estuary flood increase Salt intrusion effects VLIR TEAM project met Vietnam National University PhD s Duc Anh Nguyen, Tuyet Anh Le Nguyen, D.A., Van Uytven, E., De Niel, J., Vu, M.C., Monbaliu, J., Willems, P. (2018), Climate scenarios and low flow impacts revisited for the Ma catchment in Vietnam, in review

24 Impact hydrologische extremen Tarim rivierbekken, NW China: Impact catchment runoff (18 climate models): Kaidu catchment: Monthly rainfall increases in winter (up to about +40% by 2050s) Monthly rainfall decreases in summer (close to 0%) Monthly temperature increase (up to +3 C) Annual evapotranspiration increase (up to about +10%) Increase in rainfall extremes (up to 100%) Increasing high flow extremes (up to +15%) due to: o more snow accumulation in winter o longer and shifted snow melting period More floods BELSPO project i.c.w. VITO & XIEG Urumqi PhD Tie Liu Liu, T., Willems, P., Pan, X.L., Bao, A.M., Chen, X., Veroustraete, F., Dong, Q.H. (2011), Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China, HESS, 15,

25 Impact hydrologische extremen Paute rivierbekken, Ecuador: Impact on catchment runoff (23 climate models): Annual temperature increase (about +2 C by 2050s, lower changes for warm months, higher changes for cold months) Annual rainfall increase, less wet days, higher rainfall intensities on wet days Higher high runoff flows (up to about +30%) Lower low runoff flows (down to about -50%) More floods in wet seasons Lower water availability in dry seasons PROMAS Universidad de Cuenca PhDs Rolando Celleri, Luis Timbe, Diego Mora Mora, D.E., Campozano, L., Cisneros, F., Wyseure, G., Willems, P. (2014), Climate changes of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes in the Paute basin, Ecuadorean Andes, HESS, 18, 1-18

26 Impact hydrologische extremen Blue Nile bekken, Ethiopië: Impact on catchment runoff Lake Tana catchment: Annual rainfall decrease (down to about -30% by 2050s) Annual temperature increase (up to +2 C) Annual evapotranspiration increase (up to about +8%) Increasing peak flows (up to about +80%) Decreasing low flows (down to -60%) Decreasing annual runoff and runoff totals in main rainy season (down to -20%) More floods in wet seasons Lower water availability in dry seasons FRIEND-Nile project (UNESCO & Flanders in Trust Fund) PhD Meron Teferi Taye Taye M.T., Ntegeka V., Ogiramoi N.P., Willems P. (2011), Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin, HESS, 15,

27 Impact hydrologische extremen Lake Victoria bekken, East Africa: Impact catchment runoff (Nyando, Ruizi, ) (23 climate models): Nyando catchment: Annual rainfall increases (up to about +100% by 2090s) Annual temperature increase Annual evapotranspiration increase (up to about +20%) Increase in rainfall extremes (up to 90%) Increasing annual runoff totals (up to >100%) Increasing peak flows More floods Adaptation needs: flood control FRIEND-Nile project (UNESCO & Flanders in Trust Fund) PhDs Meron Teferi Taye & Charles Onyutha Taye M.T., Ntegeka V., Ogiramoi N.P., Willems P. (2011), Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin, HESS, 15,

28 Impact hydrologische extremen Lake Victoria, East Africa: Impact Lake Victoria water quality (26 new generation climate models): Increase in rainfall extremes (up to 40% by 2080s) Increase in annual rainfall (up to 20%) Ongoing: Impact on river catchment inflows Impact on lake evaporation Impact on physico-chemical lake water quality VLIR ICP-PhD Mary Akurut, Makarere University, Uganda PhD Mary Akurut Akurut, M., Willems, P., Niwagaba, C.B. (2014), Potential impacts of climate change on precipitation over Lake Victoria, East Africa, in the 21st Century, Water, 6,

29 Klimaatadaptatie!

30 Gebruik van natuurlijk kapitaal om veerkracht en weerbaarheid te vergroten Evolutie in waterbeheer: Bron figuur: Hans Bruyninckx (EEA)

31 Willems P, Olsson J, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, Beecham S, Pathirana A, Bülow Gregersen I, Madsen H, Nguyen, V-T-V (2012) Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage. Book IWA Publishing, 252p. Blauwgroene oplossingen along rivers at public properties at private properties

32 Voorstel Vlaamse Baaien Strandophogingen (breder en hoger strand) Duinbescherming Strandhoofden, golfbrekers Overslag beperken, stabiliteit

33 Mangroven als natuurlijke kustbescherming Toorman E., Anthony E., Augustinus P., Gardel A., Gratiot N., Homenauth O., Huybrechts N., Monbaliu J., Moseley K., Naipal S. (2018). Interaction of mangroves, coastal hydrodynamics and morphodynamics along the coastal fringes of the Guianas. In: Makowski C., Finkl CW. (Eds.), Threats to Mangrove Forests: Hazards, Vulnerability and Management Solutions., Chapt. 20,

34 Droogtebeheer Bufferen-sparen van regenwater: ook: drainagewater, sproeiwater, Hergebruik van water Bv. hergebruik effluent water: gezuiverd afvalwater, v. bepaalde bedrijven (bv. melkerijen) Ontzilting van zeewater Grondwatervoeding via infiltratie (ook diepe), zelfs gezuiverd afvalwater Slimme meters, sturing via waterprijs Tegengaan van waterverliezen (vb. lekverliezen) (Teelt)technische mogelijkheden in land- en tuinbouwsector teeltkeuze, raskeuze, bodemkwaliteit, efficiënter watergebruik (vb. efficiënter irrigeren), Verhogen waterbergend vermogen bodem

35 Vermuyten, E., Meert, P., Wolfs, V, Willems, P. (2018), Combining model predictive control with a reduced genetic algorithm for real-time flood control, ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 144(2), Slimme sturing Model Predictive Control flood control reservoirs Pumps against water losses at sluices Upstream flow control, e.g. flushing against salt intrusion Canal Gent-Terneuzen Water supply reservoirs

36 Willems, P., Delobbe, L., Reyniers, M., Van Ootegem, L. (2016), Prototype system for nowcasting of urban flood risks, Novatech conf. on Planning & technologies for sustainable urban water management, Lyon, France Voorspellen & waarschuwen + zelfredzaamheid verhogen

37 Inzetten op combinatie van slimme oplossingen Illustratie: Linda van Os

38 Proficiat met de 15 jaar! Vlaams Partnerschap Water voor Ontwikkeling