Policy Aspects of Storm Surge Warning Systems Ir. Herman Dijk Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Contents Water in the Netherlands What kind of information and models do we need? Flood System () Conclusions
Flooding in the Netherlands Safety Standards in the Netherlands
Safety Standards in the Netherlands Now Safety Standards in the Netherlands Future
Climate Change Increasing discharge Rijn en Maas Sea level rise More rainfall in the winter period and more frequent Land subsidence A Different Approach to Water Water Policy in the 21st Century Not only traditional thinking More space for water Time table: 2015
A Different Approach to Water More space for therivers Weak Spots in the Dutch Coastline Controlled flooding Waterproof Spacial Planning Dutch Coast under Attack Results of the First Check Primary Flood Defences Wave Period Wave Height Wave Attack on Coastal Flood Defenses Consequences? Who s afraid of Red, Yellow and Blue?
Dutch Coast under Attack Dutch Coast under Attack
Dutch Coast under Attack Dutch Coast under Attack
What now? Information: field measurements Models Uncertainties: reduction also more uncertainties What if? More structured information is needed: Developing the Hoogwater Informatie Systeem: Flood System
Flood System Enables an assessment on potential threats of flooding, given a forecast of the waterlevel Gives insight of the potential effects in case of a flood Helps the user to make a decision to minimise the risks Flood System Operational use during floods (rivers) - monitoring - logbook - planning evacuation Policy preparation - flooding module - damage module
Flood System Flooding Module Simulation of effects : Pattern (direction) of waterflow Quantity of water Risingspeed of waterlevel Maximal height of waterlevel Rapidity of the waterflow Flood System Damage Assessment Module Two elements: Economic damage assessment Life safety assessment Used in risk analysis
Flood System Flood System 1953
Policy Preparations Regional contingency plans Planning evacuation Decisions on National Level Is evacuation possible? Conclusions Who takes that decision? Is or other model used? Common Sense Model?