Header. De Grote Uitdaging. Energiebeleid: EU, NL en jij Jacques de Jong. A reflection. The 2050 challenge. The future.

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1 De Grote Uitdaging Energiebeleid: EU, NL en jij Jacques de Jong Earth: Resource scarcity Water Food Energy Wind Climate Biodiversity footprint Worldschool 24 maart 2011 Fire: Conflicts Non-proliferation A reflection The future What do we know that we don t know? The unknown un-known Black swans & Serendipity Daniel Dennet: The main purpose of our brain is to reflect on the future and to consider what-if scenario s The global target: the 2 limit IEA: a 450 ppm scenario EU: Road Maps 2050 Zero carbon electricity?; ECF Road Maps for % zero carbon; EU Road Maps under preperation The 2050 challenge 1

2 Wat doen we echt: alle hens aan dek? Na Kopenhagen. Brussel Den Haag Kopenhagen... Uitkomsten: Politiek erkent 2º doelstelling 2050 ( 450 ppm scenario ) Landen dienen (vrijwillige) 2020 emissiedoelen in Aanpassing aan klimaat met extra geld voor LDC s met Copenhagen Green Climate Fund: direct 30 miljard$ doelstelling 100 miljard$/jr rond 2020 Nieuwe mechanismes voor ontbossing en technologie Vervolg in Mexico, klein stapje verder eind 2011: Durban Clingendael International Energy Programme Clingendael International Energy Programme 2

3 The EPE Security of supply MOSCOW Competitiveness LISBON Sustainable Development KYOTO Green Package Agreed march 2009 EU s Energy Policy 3rd Energy Market Package Agreed may 2009 Strategic Energy Review, 2008, 2009 SET- Technology (2009) Infra Package 2010 The 2020 strategy (2010) Agenda 2011: Road map 2050 Action Plan E-efficiency External Energy policy 20 years ago Kyoto Challenge GHG emissions ETS , with overall GHG reduction of 21% National targets for non-ets sectors, overall 10% reduction Renewables New directive to reach 20% renewables target and 10% biofuels target Carbon Capture and Storage Framework for CCS Energy Efficiency Update on implementation of Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2008 package ETS Single EU-wide cap, no national caps All big industrial emitters included: energy, chemis, steel, aluminium, aviation Full auctioning of er s, but with carbon leakage option 20% of auction revenues by MS earmarked for climate action increased access to CDM EU GHG-policy up to 2020 EU ETS - 21% compared to 2005 Source: EC, 2008 Target: - 20% compared to % compared to 2005 Non-ETS Fairness principle MS targets between 20% to +20% National Action Plans non- ETS sectors - 10% compared to Member State targets, stretching from - 20% to +20% 11 3

4 Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2011 Main lines: No legal commitments (yet?) Building environment Renovation public buildings EP contracting Promote DH Tackle split incentives Develop ESCO-market Energy sector Market based ee-obligations Cogen, bat etc Cogen priority access Monitor De uitdaging: duurzame energie MS-targets RES Directive De wind en de zee De zon en het zand 4

5 Header Vergroten van het aanbod: alle bronnen hebben een rol! EU: Diversiteit in beleid kernenergie Ja en verder: Fr, FI, VK, SE, SK, SI, BG, CZ, RO, HU, (CH) Nog wel steeds B, D, Sp, Misschien nieuw/meer: NL, PL, IT Nee, bedankt: DK, AT, PT,IE, Gr, Baltics, LU, CY, MT Bron: Exxon Mobil 2008 Clingendael ﴀ International Energy Programme EU electricity fuel mix Clingendael ﴀ International Energy Programme De betekenis van de 450 ppm stabilisatie casus: de 2 Celsius stijging in 2050 Hydro RES Fossil Nuke Bron: DG TREN, EU Energy and Transport in Figures, 2009 (Gross Electricity Production) Clingendael International Energy Programme 5

6 Maar vooral: anders energie gebruiken Nieuw beleid.? Doelen 2020: Niet meer dan EU heeft opgelegd: - 20% Broeikasgas vgl met % DE in energiemix Green Deal?? Nieuwe Kerncentrale(s)? SDE aangepast/uitgekleed Energierapport 2011 Gasrotonde... Far-reaching innovation Clingendael International Energy Programme en wat gebeurt er echt.. Kerncentrale in Zeeland? Delta, EdF?; ERH, RWE? Verhagen controleert KEW-vergunning Publiek geld? Publieke actie? Barendrecht en het vervolg? Einde CCS? Alleen off-shore? Nederland als Energie Knooppunt Nederlandse Olie/Gas Import Olieconsumptie: vaten per dag (1.2% wereld) Olieproductie: vaten per dag Gas consumptie 2007: 24.1 miljard m 3 Gasproductie 2007: 60.5 miljard m 3 Olie import: Ruwe olie: vaten per dag Producten: vaten per dag Gas export 2007: 44.3 miljard m 3 Bron: BP 2008, Gasterra 2008, Havenbedrijf Rotterdam 2008, NAM 2008, IEA Data bewerkt ter vergelijking Nederlandse gasproductie zal geleidelijk afnemen (tot na 2030), waardoor Nederland in toenemende mate in haar gasvoorziening van import afhankelijk gaat worden. Nederland heeft de ambitie om een gas rotonde in NW-Europese gasmarkt te worden. Nederland blijft daardoor expliciet verantwoordelijk voor de energieveiligheid van andere EU lidstaten ook als de eigen productie niet meer geëxporteerd wordt. Rotterdam is Europa s grootste importhaven voor ruwe olie en het grootste raffinage centrum van Europa. 6

7 Forcasting, Backcasting The EU in the international system Source: CIEP L Europe des patries Low cooperation, low government Fortress Europe Heavy Government Confident Europe Nationalism Globalism l Europe des Patries Light Government Competitive Europe Domestic economic development is the primary driver, underpinned by domestic energy security. Government engagement is constrained and there are few levies or subsidies. International treaties, where they exist, are ineffective. 7

8 Competitive Europe High Cooperation, Low Government Confident Europe High Government, High Cooperation Primary focus is economic growth, freeing up global markets to promote international trade. Heavy reliance on market mechanisms with limited regulation. Few levies and subsidies and few restrictions on global movement of goods and services. National policies provide protection of property and commercial rights promoting international alliances. Governments and businesses actively share their experience and expertise. Public Private Partnerships ensure a focus on delivery of policy intent. Fortress Europe High Government, Low Cooperation Waar blijft het beleid? De Bermuda-driehoek (Lubbers) De volgende verkiezingen Strong, hierarchical leadership from governments. The first priority is domestic energy security to support structured economic activity and growth. Focus on development, and protection, of indigenous resources. Limited use of international bilateral agreements. Het snelle rendement Het lange termijn belang De krant van vandaag Clingendael International Energy Programme 8

9 Toekomst en emoties? De leidende emoties: in Azië, de hoop de moslimwereld, de vernedering het westen, de angst Arenas for Action: Government to Government Business & Government Energy Policy Energy Regulation Rules of Trade Jesse Jackson: Hoop wint het van de angst ? Policy items for four policy designs Supply security Market designs and regulatory frameworks Fiscal/financial incentives Carbon policy approaches External energy relations Carbon Value Clingendael International Energy Programme Mr Barosso, Do you now see the road to an EU energy Policy? Do you? High Government, Low Cooperation Low cooperation, low government Two Energy Policy ideas? High Government, High Cooperation High Cooperation, Low Government 9

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