Duurzaam en Economie; Gaat dat samen? Energiek 2020, Bleiswijk, 26 Maart 2015. Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij Academic Director - Energy Academy Europe Distinguished Professor Energy System Analysis University of Groningen
Energy demand, GHG emissions and climate change
Potential emissions from remaining fossil resources could result in GHG concentration levels far above 600ppm.
Nervous markets
The EU Emissions Trading Scheme - Chappin, Dijkema, de Vries, The Wall Street Journal, 2010 http://www.wsj.com/articles/sb10001424052748704535004575348924229071164 High volatility Price crashes Gaming Windfall profits Image source: Z.H. Feng, et al. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy 88 (2011) 590 598.
Energy system transformation [GEA/van Vuuren et al CoSust, 2012]
CCS Potential 1/5 of the portfolio Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008
Energy mix EU Oil critical (imported) fossil fuel Few countries have substantial role of renewables (e.g. Demark, Austria, Sweden; mainly due to bioenergy + hydro) Variable roles for gas and nuclear
400 Billion Euro/yr energy imports in EU; and counting!
Part of Europe in leadership position
Dutch Energy system Cijfers voor 2010 Bron: CBS/bewerking ECN
Historisc trend Supply per energy source (PJ/yr) 6000 CO2-emissions rise 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 CO2-emissions decline Totaal hernieuwbaar Hernieuwbaar overig Zonnecollectoren, geothermie Wind, PV, Hydro Water Wind Zon PV Biomassa Totaal Traditioneel Kernenergie Gas Olie Kolen
energievraag niet uitgesplitst naar sector energievraag niet uitgesplitst naar sector energievraag niet uitgesplitst naar sector Historische trend Demand per sector (PJ/yr) 6000 CO₂ emissies stijgen 5000 4000 3000 2000 CO₂ - emissies dalen energiebedrijven landbouw, visserij en dienstverlening gebouwde omgeving elektriciteit gebouwde omgeving warmte huishoudens 1000 0 handel, diensten, overheid landbouw industrie verkeer en vervoer 13
Diversity in modelling & secneario assumptions... 1,8 1,6 21.2 BBP (billion ) No. people (mln) Greenpeace Rev Green4sure SEO-BM 25 Ranges energy prices ( /GJ) (for target years in different studies) Bandbreedte in aanname energieprijzen Current prices in black voor de periode 2030-2050 ( /GJ) op basis van 2 rapporten Energy use (PJ/yr) CO 2 emissions variy between 34-332 Mt/yr in 2050. 6000 5000 Greenpeace - Revolution KIVI NIRIA Green4sure SEO - BM-P 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 17 19.7 17.1 18.9 15.8 18 17.5 SEO-BAU PBL-ECN CPB/MNP - SE CPB/MNP - RC CPB/MNP - GE CPB/MNP - TM ECN - REF 20 15 10 op basis van 7 rapporten op basis van 6 rapporten op basis van 2 rapporten 4000 3000 2000 SEO - BAU-P PBL/ECN - max PBL/ECN - auto PBL/ECN - nu CPB/MNP - SE CPB/MNP - RC CPB/MNP - GE CPB/MNP -TM 0,4 Historisch Optied-duurz 5 op basis van 5 rapporten 1000 ECN REF-plan 0,2 ECN REF-vast ECN REF-geen 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 oil coal gas biomass electricity 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 14 Historisch
Economic importance: New industry & employment? Wind Off shore? Decline overall employment since 2008 But (RET & Eff.) energy sector grew some 60% and expected to continue. Gasroundabout Europe? Biobased economy? PV Smart Grids? Many more examples on Sectoral level
RE costs have declined in the past further declines expected in the future But fossil fuel based energy technologies (and supplies) learn as wel [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] Learning curve for power generation technologies, historic data and POLES WETO reference projection up to 2030.
And such opportunities can be found in most sectors
Factors influencing learning/ unit costs Example for onshore wind farms: Improved siting of wind farms (Learning by doing) Development of specific components (gear boxes, generators) and regulating mechanisms (stall/ pitch regulation) (R&D) Mass production of wind turbines (economies-of-scale) Upscaling of wind turbines (upscaling)
Source: IEA, 2000 Learning investments the cost of learning
Available for commercial order Preconstruction and licencing period Generic capital cost trend for early commercial units of a new power plant technology Capital Cost / Unit of Capacity (constant currency) Simplified cost estimate with incomplete data Finalized cost estimate Development period cost estimates Estimate Design / construction period First commercial service Actual Second plant in service 3rd plant 4th plant 5th plant Mature plant costs Time Source: EPRI
Actieplan klimaatneutrale glastuinbouw (1) Tot 2020: (Semi-)gesloten kassen; Aardgas-WKK; Aardwarmte; Clustering van glastuinbouwbedrijven; Energiebesparing.
Actieplan klimaatneutrale glastuinbouw (2) Na 2020: Klimaatneutrale (gesloten) kas; Elektriciteitsleverende kas met spectrumselectieve zonnecellen; Bio-WKK (alleen gebruik van tweede generatie biomassa); Aardwarmte; Clustering van glastuinbouwbedrijven; Energiebesparing. Uitgangspunten voor het bereiken van de doelstelling zijn: De glastuinbouwsector gaat er in de transitiefase (10-15 jaar) economisch niet op achteruit; De toegepaste alternatieve niet-fossiele brandstoffen leveren geen negatieve milieu-effecten op.
Perspectief voor glastuinbouw Van groot energiegebruiker (gas!) naar energieleverancier. Gecombineerd met overall verduurzaming (gesloten kas, recycling nutriënten, water en preventie emissies). High tech exportproduct. Uitstekend voorbeeld van innovatieve sector. Uitstekend voorbeeld van sector met potentieel om ecologische footprint fundamenteel te veranderen. Tegelijk blijft continu investeren en innoveren essentieel (leercurves ) In toenemende mate systeeminnovaties (verweven met rest energiesysteem (en andere ketens )).
Important notion for in energy science & policy: A.o. IEA (WEO) concluded multiple times that : Yes, 450 ppm pathways requires massive investments but will lead to rapid cost reductions of RET s and energy efficient technologies and less pressure on fossil fuel supplies leading to an overall lower cost and more secure (global) energy supply!
Final remarks: the essential preconditions for essential technological progress Innovation (R&D + D + D) in energy technologies (supply & demand) is essential (fossil fuels keep learning as well). A stable policy and investment climate is a key precondition for success and reaping the benefits of vital new industries and employment. This means: Stable (long term) obligatory targets, clear market instruments, intensive collaboration between govt. & market players, innovation system strategy
Final remarks Transition of the energy system does not allow for further delays; 2050 targets require considerable acceleration. Not only because of climate change (and other ecological concerns) but also because of economic reasons. Technical possibilities known; potentials suffice. Implementation and governance major bottlenecks. Implications for the energy system, deployment over time and minimization of costs poorly understood as are the extent to which economic benefits can be maximized. System perspective, integral view of impacts and analysis of governance and business models. Analysis parallel to implementation.
Time to act and thank you very much for your attention A.P.C.Faaij@RUG.nl / Andre.Faaij@energyacademy.org sciencedirect/scopus/google scholar srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report www.energyacademy.org