Hoe onzeker is de toekomst?

Transcriptie

1 Hoe onzeker is de toekomst? Prof. dr. Wim J. de Ridder 28 september 2011!!! DEZE PRESENTATIE IS EIGENDOM VAN PROF. DR. WIM J. DE RIDDER EN IS SLECHTS VOOR PERSOONLIJK GEBRUIK DOOR DE ONTVANGER BESTEMD!!!

2 Intelligence looks for what is known to solve problems.

3 Intelligence looks for what is known to solve problems. Creativity looks for what is unknown to discover possibilities.

4 Thomas Edison in 1879 "We maken elektrisch licht zo goedkoop dat alleen de rijken nog kaarsen branden."

5 Thomas Edison's eerste lamp 1879

6 Beoordeling van de lamp van Edison Goed genoeg voor onze vrienden in andere werelddelen, maar de lamp heeft geen betekenis voor de praktijk of de wetenschap. British Parliamentary Committee, over de lamp van Edison in 1878 Iedereen die zich in dit product verdiept, ziet dat het een pijnlijke mislukking is. Henry Morton, president van the Stevens Institute of Technology in 1880

7 Thomas Edison in 1931 I d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.

8 Deel 1: 2020, the end of an era Installation Crash Deployment Irruption Frenzy Synergy Maturity 1 The Industrial Revolution 1771 Panic 1797 Formation of Mfg. industry Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade Age of Steam and Railways 1829 Panic 1847 Standards on gauge, time Catalog sales companies Economies of scale Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering 1875 Depression 1893 Urban development Support for interventionism Age of Oil, Automobiles and Mass Production 1908 Crash 1929 Build-out of interstate highways IMF, World Bank, BIS Age of Information and Telecommunications 1971 Dot.com Collapse 2008 Credit Crisis Period of Institutional Adjustment Source: Perez, C., Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, 2002

9 The Sixth Technological Revolution according to Merrill Lynch SIXTH: From 2003 Age of Cleantech and Biotech In USA and Europe going globa Source: Merrill Lynch Renewable energy led by solar, wind, and biofuels Energy efficiency Energy storage technologies Electric vehicles Nano materials Synthetic biology Enhanced electricity transmission capabilities Decentralization of power generation Connection of electricity and transportation energy infrastructures Demand/Response management Increased availability of water and electricity Extensive gene data banks

10 The race to reinvent the world starts and ends in China The size of China's green stimulus program is historically unprecedented at about 38% of the over $200 billion announced, and underpinning the country's rise as the largest emerging cleantech market.

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12 Deel 2: Morfologie van een technologische revolutie

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16 The new era: the symbiotic age symbiosis between men machine symbiosis between men men symbiosis between men society

17 Deel 3: nieuwe markten

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20 Naast intuitieve of trial and error geneeskunde: get it right the first time benadering personalised, preventive and participatory medicine 20

21 IBM: Lab-on-a-chip (2010)

22 Medicine 1.0: hospitals health centres Medicine 2.0: personal medicine Medicine 3.0: telemedicine/lab on a chip

23 Mobility 1.0: public transport Mobility 2.0: private transport (cars) Mobility 3.0: autonomous vehicles, integrated transportsystems

24 DARPA 2007

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29 Jun The State of Nevada just passed Assembly Bill No. 511 which authorizes the Department of Transportation to develop rules and regulations governing the use of driverless cars, such as Google s concept car, on its roads.

30 A Car That Can Drive Itself at 80 mph Jun Volkswagen is currently testing a Temporary Auto Pilot (TAP) system it claims will enable a car to drive itself at highway speeds up to 80 mph. The system deftly bundles semi-automatic functions monitored by the driver, with other driver assistance systems such as adaptive cruise control and a lane-monitoring system into one integrated function.

31 Water 1.0: utilities Water 2.0: welness, health Water 3.0: decentralized purification

32 Reinier de Graaf Ziekenhuis Delft Terugverdientijd 3 jaar

33 Energy 1.0: utilities Energy 2.0: personal energy: solar, wkk Energy 3.0: smart grids

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36 The Jeju Island Smart Grid (Korea)

37 Deel 4: Exponentiële ontwikkeling in de elektriciteitsmarkt

38 Photovoltaic system 'tree' in Styria, Austria

39 Cell efficiencies

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44 oktober 2010: Helianthos in Arnhem wordt verkocht november 2010: Solland en Sunergy worden verkocht

45 Urgenda: particulier initiatief zonnecellen tegen bodemprijs

46 Prognose 2015: duurzame elektriciteit even duur als fossiele elektriciteit 2020: groei van duurzame elektriciteit hoger dan de groei van de vraag naar elektriciteit 2025: prijs van elektriciteit is laag

47 Deel 5: Toekomstdenken

48 Black Swan Phenomenon

49 The Innovator s Dilemma Clayton Christensen s work on The Innovator s Dilemma show that disruptive innovations never come from market leaders

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