University of Groningen. Exploring futures from an energy perspective Noorman, Klaas Jan

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1 University of Groningen Exploring futures from an energy perspective Noorman, Klaas Jan IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 1995 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Noorman, K. J. (1995). Exploring futures from an energy perspective: a natural capital accounting model study into the long-term economic development potential of the Netherlands Groningen: s.n. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date:

2 EXPLORING FUTURES FROM AN ENERGY PERSPECTIVE a Natural Capital Accounting model study into the long-term economic development potential of the Netherlands A floppy disk with the model is available at IVEM. In order to run the model, the Simulation Software Professional Dynamo Plus (Pugh-Roberts Associates, Cambridge, USA) is required. Copyright 1995 by Klaas-Jan Noorman ISBN

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4 RIJKSUNIVERSITEIT GRONINGEN EXPLORING FUTURES FROM AN ENERGY PERSPECTIVE a Natural Capital Accounting model study into the long-term economic development potential of the Netherlands Proefschrift ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in de Wiskunde en Natuurwetenschappen aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen op gezag van de Rector Magnificus Dr F. van der Woude in het openbaar te verdedigen op vrijdag 8 september 1995 des namiddags te 2.45 uur precies door Klaas Jan Noorman geboren op 7 augustus 1964 te Groningen

5 Promotor: Co-promotor: Prof. dr A.J.M. Schoot Uiterkamp Dr ir W. Biesiot

6 Aan mijn moeder

7 Contents Contents VOORWOORD CHAPTER 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION Introduction The concept of sustainable development Paradigms for sustainable development Economic growth versus development Economics and resource use: a historical overview Mainstream economics and the environment Models for sustainable development The scope of the study 26 CHAPTER 2: PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND ECONOMICS Introduction Physics and Economics: from analogy to the physical nature of economics Some basic principles of thermodynamics Thermodynamics and societal metabolism from a meta perspective The economics of production from an energy perspective The role of labour in production viewed from a physical perspective Substitution from a physical perspective Thermodynamics, economics and time Embodied energy and monetary valuation Concluding remarks 51 CHAPTER 3: ECCO AS AN APPLICATION OF THE NATURAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTING METHODOLOGY Introduction The application of Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) Natural Capital Accounting and the system paradigm ECCO, a few historical notes ECCO: basic principles A national core mode The national perspective The main structure of ECCO The embodied energy concept The Energy Supply System An interim discussion of the ECCO approach: aggregation versus detail 72

8 Contents CHAPTER 4: AN OVERVIEW OF THE NETHERLANDS ECCO MODEL Why a Netherlands ECCO model? A presentation of the modules of the Dutch model Industry Services Transport Freight transport Public transport Private transport Domestic housing The Energy Supply sector Oil production and refining Gas production and distribution Electricity generation and distribution Wind turbines and solar cells The import-export balance Consumption and Material Standard of Living The demographic module Embodied energy versus societal utility Modelling in embodied energy terms Modelling societal utility 97 CHAPTER 5: FLOWS OF ENERGY IN THE NETHERLANDS ECONOMY IN Introduction General principles of standard input-output analysis Input-Output Energy Analysis Description of the method Direct energy requirements and energy tariffs IOEA and imports IOEA and capital depreciation Results for the year Results of IOEA applied to the ECCO approach Conclusions Discussion 117 CHAPTER 6: STOCKS OF ENERGY IN THE NETHERLANDS ECONOMY IN Introduction The role of capital in production Determination of the primary energy requirements for investments A method for the accessment of the energy embodied in man made capital Energy embodied in the industrial capital stocks 128

9 Contents Assessment of the energy embodied in the NLECCO industry sector Industrial investments and depreciation Discussion Energy embodied in the capital stock of oil and gas production Discussion Energy embodied in the transport capital stock Energy embodied in the agricultural capital stock Energy embodied in the services capital stock Discussion Energy embodied in the residential sector Discussion Energy embodied in electricity generating plants Investments in the electricity supply sector Overview of the main results Discussion of the overall results 151 CHAPTER 7: SCANNING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALS FROM AN ENERGY PERSPECTIVE Introduction A working definition of sustainable development The Dutch ECCO model and perspectives of sustainable development 155 PART I: Analysis of the reference scenario Introduction Energy inputs and the level of welfare The role of the Dutch natural gas reserves Energy inputs and production output The balance of payments 168 PART II: Options for reducing the throughput of fossil fuels Introduction Energy conservation, some introductory remarks The technical energy conservation potentials Assessment of the energy costs of energy conservation capital The method Results of the EROI method Interim discussion on the EROI method Exploring the long-term effects of energy conservation The introduction of renewable energy sources Technical description of the input data Description of the solar energy scenario Presenting the solar energy scenario results Summarizing and concluding remarks Summarizing the results Discussion of the results 198

10 Contents Suggestions for future research 199 CHAPTER 8: GENERAL CONCLUSIONS, DISCUSSION AND PROSPECTS Introduction Sustainable Development as a guiding principle Economy-Environment interrelationships Designing NLECCO as a tool for exploring sustainable development paths 205 DISCUSSION Introduction ECCO and sustainable development from a system approach ECCO and the sustainability of subsystems Energy efficiency improvements and economic growth in NLECCO Related research lines and prospects Related research lines at IVEM Prospects 216 Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix Appendix 6 xxx REFERENCES 233 SUMMARY SAMENVATTING

11 Voorwoord VOORWOORD In de nazomer van 1989 ontstond, naar aanleiding van het gasthoogleraarschap van prof. Malcolm Slesser het idee om, in navolging van een aantal pilot studies, een ECCO model voor Nederland te ontwikkelen. Dit oorspronkelijke afstudeerproject is uitgegroeid tot een promotietraject waarvan de belangrijkste bevindingen zijn beschreven in dit proefschrift. Bij de totstandkoming van dit proefschrift is de inbreng van verschillende mensen van groot belang geweest. Veel dank ben ik verschuldigd aan mijn promotor prof. Ton Schoot Uiterkamp en aan mijn co-promotor dr. ir. Wouter Biesiot voor mijn begeleiding de afgelopen jaren. Zij waren betrokken bij het richting geven aan het modelleer- en schrijfwerk, het indammen van al te ambitieuze plannen, het doorhakken van knopen en het becommentariëren van het manuscript. I am indebted to prof. Malcolm Slesser who was from the very beginning involved in the project and introduced me in the world of modelling and System Dynamics. I consider his continuous support and the many stimulating discussions we have had of great importance for the outcome of this project. I am greatful to both Jane King and Malcolm Slesser for their hospitality during my stays in Edinburgh and showing me Scotlands west coast... Many thanks also to Anupam Saraph for inspiring discussions on System Dynamics and the ECCO methodology. Dank ook aan de leden van de leescommissie, prof. ir. J. Claus, prof. dr. W. A. Hafkamp en prof. dr. P. Kooreman, voor het lezen van het manuscript en het geven van een aantal zinvolle suggesties. Dr. Bert de Vries wil ik bedanken voor zijn adviezen op afstand. Een speciaal woord van dank voor Jessica Scholte die vanuit Hydra grote delen van het manuscript van zowel inhoudelijk als taalkundig commentaar heeft voorzien. Coos Battjes wil ik bedanken voor zijn hulp bij het ontwerpen van de omslag. Het schrijven van een proefschrift is voor een deel een solo-actie. Eens te meer blijkt dan het belang van het hebben van goede collega s die met elkaar zorgen voor een prettige werkomgeving. Dank aan alle IVEM-ers voor hulp, steun en plezier, zowel tijdens als buiten reguliere werktijden, de afgelopen jaren! Tenslotte, Monique, dank voor alle steun en hulp en de ruimte die je gaf om dit proefschrift af te ronden. Jouw inbreng is belangrijk geweest. En jij, Yannick, al besef je het zelf nog niet, hebt de afgelopen zeven maanden laten zien dat er veel meer is tussen hemel en aarde dan het afronden van een proefschrift...