Citation for published version (APA): Benders, R. M. J. (1996). interactive simulation of electricity demand and production Groningen: s.n.
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1 University of Groningen interactive simulation of electricity demand and production Benders, Reinerus IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 1996 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Benders, R. M. J. (1996). interactive simulation of electricity demand and production Groningen: s.n. Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date:
2 INTERACTIVE SIMULATION OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND PRODUCTION
3 Copyright 1996 by R.M.J. Benders ISBN
4 RIJKSUNIVERSITEIT GRONINGEN INTERACTIVE SIMULATION OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND PRODUCTION Proefschrift ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in de Wiskunde en Natuurwetenschappen aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen op gezag van de Rector Magnificus Dr F. van der Woude in het openbaar te verdedigen op vrijdag 21 juni 1996 des morgens te uur precies door Reinerus Martinus Johannes Benders geboren op 8 juni 1956 te Helmond
5 Promotor: Co-promotor: Referent: Prof. dr A.J.M. Schoot Uiterkamp Dr ir W. Biesiot Dr H.J.M. de Vries
6 to the future
7 viii Contents Contents Voorwoord... xi 1. General Introduction Introduction Historical overview Goals and criteria Outline of the thesis Models and modelling Simulation and models Why Modelling Building a model Model testing and validation The use of models Electricity modelling: demand and production Electricity demand Electricity supply Modelling electricity demand Demand model MEED: the end-use approach Modelling electricity supply Supply models PowerPlan: an interactive dynamic model MEED: the demand model Introduction MEED: structure Appliances: efficiency and penetration dynamics Appliance efficiency improvements Appliance penetration profiles Processes: the principle Pattern of electricity consuming services PowerPlan: the supply model Introduction PowerPlan, the structure Electricity demand... 60
8 Contents ix 5.4 Electricity generation Central electricity generation Decentral electricity generation Generation costs Costs of centrally generated electricity Costs Fuel input Environment Gaseous emissions Solid waste and particle emissions Summary Calibration, analysis and an application of MEED General introduction The electricity conservation potential in The Netherlands The data used The simulation The electricity conservation potential in OECD Europe Electricity use in OECD Europe Data used for this study Results of the simulation runs Discussion and conclusions Calibration, analysis and validation of PowerPlan The calibration and validation process The IEEE test-system Simulation results Conclusions Electricity generation in the Netherlands Historical context Simulation results Conclusions Electricity generation in Belgium Historical context Simulation results Conclusions Validation of PowerPlan versus the SEPU model The simulation scenarios Results of the Central Coal scenario Results of the Central CHP scenario Results of the Combined Coal scenario Results of the Combined CHP scenario
9 x Contents Results of the Combined Renewable scenario Conclusions and discussion General conclusions and discussion General conclusions and reflections Introduction Coupling PowerPlan and MEED: an example Model strengths and weaknesses Further developments References Appendix A: Technical acronyms and abbreviations Appendix B: Conversions Appendix C: End-use electricity consumption in the residential sector breakdown by appliances Appendix D: Electricity saving potentials according to Nørgård Appendix E: Load curves used by the IEEE "test" system Appendix F: "Exact" method to calculate the IEEE "test" system Appendix G: Merit order for SEPU and PowerPlan Appendix H: How to use the MEED model Appendix I: How to use the PowerPlan model Summary Samenvatting List of publications
10 Voorwoord Hoewel het schrijven van een proefschrift een solistisch bezigheid is, is de totstandkoming ervan toch niet alléén de verdienste van de promovendus. Vele mensen dragen direct dan wel indirect hun steen(tje) bij. Dit proefschrift vormt daarop geen uitzondering. De hier volgende acknowledgements staan in een min of meer chronologisch volgorde. Het begint in 1985 bij Bert de Vries die mij als afstudeeronderwerp een eenvoudig elektriciteits simulatiemodel liet maken. De IVEM maakte het mij, op voorspraak van Bert, mogelijk om PowerPlan via diverse fondsrondes na mijn afstudeerwerk uit te bouwen tot een heus model, toen nog Future Voltage geheten. Met behulp van subsidie van het Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken kon PowerPlan in samenwerking met het Tata Energy Research Institute (India) verder ontwikkeld worden tot ongeveer het model dat in dit proefschrift beschreven staat. Tijdens een studie voor het Energieonderzoeks Centrum Nederland (ECN) kon het MEED model worden ontwikkeld. Tot op dit moment was er nog geen sprake van een promotie. Dit veranderde in het voorjaar van 1993 toen Wouter Biesiot de mogelijkheden voor een promotie formuleerde. De IVEM financierde de eerste aanzet om het werk wat er tot dan toe lag betreffende PowerPlan en MEED in een proefschrift te gieten. Intussen beijverden Ton Schoot Uiterkamp en Wouter zich voor een vaste aanstelling. Deze werd gerealiseerd in februari 1994, waarna ik mijn proefschrift kon afronden. In deze laatste fase zijn met name Wouter tesamen met Bert, op een iets grotere fysieke afstand (Bilthoven) en Ton op een later tijdstip, ieder met hun eigen karakteristieke inbreng, voor mij een drijvende kracht geweest. Als laatste is er natuurlijk de leescommissie, verantwoordelijk voor de goedkeuring van dit proefschrift: Prof. dr ir C.A. Andriesse, Prof. dr J. Kommandeur en Prof. dr ir J. Rotmans. De bovenstaande chronologische schets bevat slecht de hoofdlijnen. Diversen andere personen hebben op hun eigen manier ook een bijdrage geleverd aan de totstandkoming van dit proefschrift. Coos Batjes die de data voor België verzameld en uitgewerkt heeft. Peter de Jong die de mogelijkheden van implementatie van chronologie in PowerPlan heeft onderzocht. Anthony van Rijsbergen die me een indicatie heeft gegeven hoe het met mijn Engels stond. En natuurlijk mijn collega s, in het bijzonder mijn kamergenoten, die maakten dat ik altijd met plezier naar mijn werk kwam en kom, een voor mij noodzakelijke voorwaarde tijdens het schrijven van dit proefschrift. Een ieder die ik hierboven genoemd heb en degene die ik vergeten ben, hartelijk dank voor jullie bijdrage; ze waren me alle zeer waardevol.
11
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