Welkom Kiemt Najaarscongres. 09 oktober 2017 SO FAR SO GOOD? Creative Energy in Progress

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1 Welkom Kiemt Najaarscongres 09 oktober 2017 SO FAR SO GOOD? Creative Energy in Progress

2 WORKSHOP OUTPUT - USING SCENARIOS TO INNOVATE 09 oktober SO FAR SO GOOD? Creative Energy in Progress Ciarán McGinley, Senior Associate NormannPartners

3 WHAT WILL DRIVE CHANGE IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND VALUE CONSTELLATION IN 2037?

4 WHAT WILL DRIVE CHANGE IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND VALUE CONSTELLATION IN 2037? 1.What are the factors and drivers of change, coming from the contextual environment? Write each factor/driver on a separate Post-it note, IN CAPITALS 2.Place the notes on the FLIP-CHART in the contextual circle, and explain your reasoning to the others. Cluster if that makes sense.

5 WHAT WILL DRIVE CHANGE IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND CONSTELLATION IN 2037? OUTPUT WORKSHOP KIEMT 9 OCT ST SHEET Contextual (factors) How reliable is the current state Increasing urbanisation Wetsvoorstellen en regelvorming Digitalisering Invloed van oorlogen Material needs Energie behoefte Kosten van zonne energie Kosten van wind energie Transactional (actors) Energy storage Decentralisatie van het systeem Actor landscape Government income model Nuclear fusion possibilities Bron van energie

6 WHAT WILL DRIVE CHANGE IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND CONSTELLATION IN 2037? OUTPUT WORKSHOP KIEMT 9 OCT nd SHEET Contextual (factors) Transactional (actors) Verlangen naar schone aarde Impact van klimaatverandering zorgt voor noodzaak om te veranderen Perceptie van mensen Olie en gas worden schaars en/or duur t.o.v. ander energievormen Elektrische autos zorgen voor collectieve energie buffering CO2 impact -> verlaging uitstoot ondanks groei wereld Mate van technologische ontwikkeling om aan vraag te voldoen C02 als grondstof Actor landscape Distributie vanwege centrale opwek Integrale gebeidsopgave -> kijk naar gebeid als geheel meerdere doelen to behalen! Geen restafval -> geen energie van avi s Koppeling duurzame energie aan financiering gezondheidszorg Local networks first then market Lokale zelf voorzienendheid

7 WHAT WILL DRIVE CHANGE IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND CONSTELLATION IN 2037? OUTPUT WORKSHOP KIEMT 9 OCT rd SHEET Contextual (factors) Interest rates -> 1% or 10% Fusion reactors War in our neighbourhood Fusion alternative not foreseen or predictable Education EU tax/regulation framework Public interest groups legal cases Wealth of citizens in EU Tax energy tax Rich vs Poor in EU Decentralisation of energy grid (e.g. blockchain ledgers) R&D -> transfer Africa to EU (e.g.) by grid deflection Actor landscape Supplier + customer Mobility electrical transport Blockchain Liquid transportation Transactional (actors) Storage of electricity Piek en daal optimiization

8 WHAT WILL DRIVE CHANGE IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND CONSTELLATION IN 2037? OUTPUT WORKSHOP KIEMT 9 OCT th SHEET Contextual (factors) Transactional (actors) Infrastructure < belang Country influences decline (Politieke) instabilitiet - > verandering besluitstructuren Technische ontwikkelimngen infr, opslag, opwek Hoe de Heat to Produce Climate change -> people moving Inkomen overheid koolwaterstoffen Rules for DSO-TSO. Block transition. As example socket on North Sea Actor landscape Lokale energie productie Efficiency of applications Educatie > kinderen zijn de toekomst Storage improvement - > 0,04/ kwh + losses/efficiency Regelgeving inzet van bestaande middelen Unsensitive to uncertainty Pension Insulation progress in homes Blockchain

9 WHAT WILL DRIVE CHANGE IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY-DEMAND VALUE CONSTELLATION IN 2037?

10 OUTCOME OF THE WORKSHOP OF 9 OCTOBER FLIP CHART ON UNCERTAINTIES Energy & climate integrated URBANISATION/LIVING SPACE Business as usual A sustainable solution STORAGE Partial solutions Client pays for value(s), including value to planet Fit for purpose BUSINESS MODELS EDUCATION Digital takes all. Value for planet is unpaid Backward looking Rational WORLD OF POLITICS Chaotic

11 FURTHER READING

12 Kiemt Najaarscongres In samenwerking met