Doelstellingen voor hernieuwbare warmte en koude in Nederland

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1 Doelstellingen voor hernieuwbare warmte en koude in Nederland D6 van WP3 van het RES-H Policy project Werkdocument geschreven in het kader van het IEE-project "Policy development for improving RES-H/C penetration in European Member States (RES-H Policy)" Door: Concept April 2010 Luuk Beurskens Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland, ECN Met bijdragen van: Marijke Menkveld, Sander Lensink Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland, ECN Lukas Kranzl, Gustav Resch, Andreas Müller, Marcus Hummel Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology Supported by

2 Het project "Policy development for improving RES-H/C penetration in European Member States (RES-H Policy) is uitgevoerd met steun van de Europese Commissie via het IEE-programma (contractnr. IEE/07/692/SI ). De verantwoordelijkheid voor de inhoud van dit rapport ligt volledig bij de auteurs. Het rapport geeft niet bij de mening van de Europese Gemeenschappen weer. De Europese Commissie is niet verantwoordelijk voor het gebruik dat gemaakt wordt van de informatie die in dit rapport beschreven staat. Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland (ECN), april 2010.

3 Inhoud 1 Methodologie Bepaling van het potentieel Literatuuroverzicht Warmte uit zonneenergie Biomassa Warmtepompen Andere opties Top-down benadering Het Green-X model Green-X resultaten voor Nederland Scenario-aannames Het aandeel van duurzame warmte in duurzame energie Ontwikkeling van hernieuwbare warmte Bottom-up benadering Algemene aanpak en methodologie Potentiëlen voor gebouwde omgeving en industrie Zonnewarmte gebouwen Biomassa gebouwen Warmtepompen gebouwen Potentieel voor Duurzame warmte voor de industrie Samenvatting van gebouwde omgeving en industrie Lessen uit literatuur, top-down en bottom-up benaderingen, nieuwe doelstelling Biomassa in houtkachels en blokverwarming Bioketels en bio-wkk in landbouw en industrie Afvalverbrandingsinstallaties Diepe geothermie Warmtepompen, zonneboilers en WKO in de gebouwde omgeving Synthesis Vergelijking van literatuur, top-down en bottom-up benadering Discussie met stakeholders Deelnemers in het stakeholder proces Feedback van de deelnemers Conclusies Samenvatting: RES-H/C doelstellingen Referenties

4 Appendix A Het Green-X model A.1 Algemeen A.2 Bepaling van potentiëlen voor duurzame energie in Green-X A.3 Scenario beschrijving A.4 Resultaten voor EU Appendix B Technische parameters en resultatenvoor de gebouwde omgeving B.1 Zonthermische collectoren gebouwen B.2 Biomassa verwarming gebouwen B.3 Warmtepompen gebouwen Appendix C Modelaanpak: het bepalen van het potentieel voor duurzame warmte in de industrie 70 C.1 Algemene modelbenadering C.2 Gedetailleerde modelbenadering C.3 Bronnen Appendix D Gebouwvoorraad voor Nederland D.1 Woningen (2006) D.2 Overheid, handel en dienstensector

5 List of figures Figure 1 Methodology for deriving RES-H/C targets Figure 2 Methodology for the definition of potentials Figure 3 Figure 6 Figure 8 RES generation until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands The share of RES on gross final energy demand until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands RES-H generation (technologies) until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands Figure 10 RES-H generation (sectors) until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands Figure 11 New installed RES-H capacity in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands Figure 12 Principle of a S-curve diffusion approach applied in the bottom-up analysis of the building sector Figure 13 Installed solar collector area in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 14 Solar thermal heat generation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 15 Number of residential buildings with biomass heating systems in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 16 Biomass fuel input for heating and hot water preparation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 17 Biomass useful heat generation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 18 Number of buildings with heat pumps in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 19 Ambient heat utilization from heat pumps in the building sector in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 20 Projection of final energy use [PJ] in industrial processes in the Netherlands Figure 21 Impact of applying series of constraints to the final energy demand in industrial processes in the Netherlands Figure 26 Method of approach regarding dynamic cost-resource curves for RES (for the model Green-X) Figure 27 RES generation until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in EU-27 countries

6 Figure 28 The share of RES on gross final energy demand until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in EU-27 countries Figure 30 RES-H generation until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in EU-27 countries Figure 32 RES-H generation (sectors) until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in EU-27 countries Figure 33 New installed RES-H capacity in a strengthened policy scenario in EU-27 countries Figure 34 Installed solar collector area in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 35 Solar thermal heat generation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 36 Number of residential buildings with biomass heating systems in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 37 Biomass fuel input for heating and hot water preparation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 38 Biomass useful heat generation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 39 Number of buildings with heat pumps in the selected bottom-up scenario Figure 40 Ambient heat utilization from heat pumps in the building sector in the selected bottom-up scenario

7 List of tables Table 1 Projection of total final energy use and renewable heating technologies in industrial processes in the Netherlands (sources: ODYSSEE 2009, PRIMES 2007, RESolve-H/C) Table 2 Contribution [%] to the final energy input in industrial processes in the Netherlands Table 3 RES-H/C technologies providing final renewable heat [PJ] for industrial processes in the year 2020 in the Netherlands (source: RESolve-H/C) Table 4 Impact of applying series of constraints to the final energy demand in industrial processes in the Netherlands Table 5: Synthesis of the bottom-up analysis in the industry and building sector (PJ) Table 6 Synthesis table of the potentials derived in this section. These values will be used as input for the modelling excercises in the economic analysis as reported in D13 of the RES-H Policy project. Not all sectors and technologies have been covered in the models applied, therefore the last two columns indicate which values have been considered Table 7 Synthesis table of target ranges presented in the preceding chapters Table 8 Summary overview of the target values per subsector, to be used in the further modelling approaches Table 10: Main input sources for scenario parameters

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9 Introductie Het RES-H Policy project Het project "Policy development for improving RES-H/C penetration in European Member States (RES-H Policy)" heeft als doel de regeringen van Europese lidstaten steun te bieden bij de voorbereiding van invoering van de Europese Richtlijnen voor Hernieuwbare energie ten aanzien van de aspecten die betrekking hebben op hernieuwbare warmte en koude (RES-H/C). Lidstaten krijgen steun bij het opstellen van nationale sectorspecifieke doelstellingen voor RES-H/C voor 2020 en Verder start het pro-ject participerende nationale beleidsprocessen waarin geselecteerde beleidsopties voor ondersteuning van RES-H/C kwalitatief en kwantitatief worden beoordeeld. Op basis van deze beoordeling stelt het project op maat gemaakte beleidsopties en aanbevelingen op voor optimaal ontwerp van een steunkader voor een groter aandeel RES-H/C in nationale warmte- en koudemarkten. De volgende landen zijn in dit project aan bod gekomen: Oostenrijk, Griekenland, Litouwen, Nederland, Polen en het Verenigd Koninkrijk landen die een variatie laten zien ten aanzien van de raamwerkcondities voor RES-H/C. Op Europees niveau beoordeelt dit project opties voor coördinatie en harmonisatie van nationale beleidsbenaderingen. Dit leidt tot gemeenschappelijke ontwerpcriteria voor een algemeen EUraamwerk voor RES-H/C-beleid en een overzicht van kosten en baten van verschillende harmonisatiestrategieën. Dit rapport The objective of this report is to provide target ranges for the main RES-H/C technologies in the Netherlands for the years 2020 and These target ranges will serve as a discussion point for the stakeholder consultation and a workshop where the results will be discussed. The main outcomes of this discussion process will also be documented in this report. The report is structured into the following parts: after a short introduction into the methodology of this report (Chapter 1) we will present selected results from previous, existing projects, studies and scenarios (Chapter 2). This comparison of different scenarios is supposed to provide a first insight into the ranges that have been discussed and suggested in former projects. Section 3 will present results of the simulation tool Green-X. The selected scenario is compatible with the EU 2020 targets for renewable energy and the RES directive. We are documenting the result for EU 2020 as well as for the Netherlands. In Chapter 4 we are developing a bottom-up methodology for RES-H/C technologies. Diffusion parameters are selected and the resulting bottom-up scenario is presented. Chapter 5 will report on learnings from literature findings, the top-down and bottom-up approaches and propose newly defined target for the modelling approach.) In Chapter 6 we will compare the results from the literature review, the top-down approach (Green-X) and the bottom-up methodology. Chapter 7 documents the outcome of the stakeholder consultation process and Chap- 9

10 ter 8 gives a synthesis resulting into final target ranges for RES-H/C technologies in the Netherlands. 10

11 1 Methodologie The methodology of setting up targets for the RES-H/C sector is described in Figure 1. Three pillars are providing the data basis and scientific ground for the target setting process ( WP3 RES-H/C targets ): Existing scenarios and literature (Chapter 2), scenarios from a top-down approach (Chapter 3, application of the model Green-X) which is applied for all target countries in the same way and the bottom-up approach (Chapter 4). Based on these results a stakeholder consultation and discussion process has taken place in September 2009 (the Hague, the Netherlands). As a result of this consultation the targets have been modified. The adapted targets have been documented in Chapters 6 to 8. In the RES-H Policy project, work package 4 deals with policy options. In this work package we will carry out a more detailed economic modelling of RES-H/C policy measures and incentives. Also these results will be subject to stakeholder discussions. The analyses in work package 4 might lead to a revision of the target setting results. RES H/C targets Stakeholder policy process target setting Data basis and scientific ground for target setting Revised targets Policy workshops Economic modelling results Existing scenarios Top-down approach Bottom-up approach Policy assessment WP 3: RES-H/C targets WP 4: Policy options Figure 1 Methodology for deriving RES-H/C targets 11

12 1.1 Bepaling van het potentieel The possible use of RES depends in particular on the available resources and the associated costs. In this context, the term "available resources" or RES potential has to be clarified. In literature potentials of various energy resources or technologies are intensively discussed. However, often no common terminology is applied. In order to contribute to the comprehension of the derived data, we start with an introduction on the applied terminology: Theoretical potential: For deriving the theoretical potential general physical parameters have to be taken into account (e.g. based on the determination of the energy flow resulting from a certain energy resource within the investigated region). It represents the upper limit of what can be produced from a certain energy resource from a theoretical point-of-view of course, based on current scientific knowledge; Technical potential: If technical boundary conditions (i.e. efficiencies of conversion technologies, overall technical limitations as e.g. the available land area to install wind turbines as well as the availability of raw materials) are considered the technical potential can be derived. For most resources the technical potential must be considered in a dynamic context e.g. with increased R&D conversion technologies might be improved and, hence, the technical potential would increase; Realisable potential: The realisable potential represents the maximal achievable potential assuming that all existing barriers can be overcome and all driving forces are active. Thereby, general parameters as e.g. market growth rates, planning constraints are taken into account. It is important to mention that this potential term must be seen in a dynamic context i.e. the realisable potential has to refer to a certain year; Mid-term potential: The mid-term potential is equal to the realisable potential for the year In this report we are trying to quantify the last two items, namely realisable potential and mid-term potential, broken down for all RES-H/C technologies. Figure 2 shows the general concept of the realisable mid-term potential up to 2020, the technical and the theoretical potential. 12

13 Theoretical potential Energy generation Historical deployment Technical potential Maximal time-path for penetration (Realisable Potential) Barriers (non-economic) Economic Potential (without additional support) Policy, Society 2020 R&D Mid-term potential Additional realisable mid-term potential (up to 2020) Achieved potential (2005) Long-term potential Figure 2 Methodology for the definition of potentials 13

14 2 Literatuuroverzicht In the year 2007 an important report was published on possibilities for renewable heating and cooling (RES-H/C) in the Netherlands by Harmsen, commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. The outcome of this analysis has been summarised below, and it has been extended with estimates of the authors of the current report. The above-mentioned report focuses on the mid-term potential i.e. the realisable potential for the year In the tables below data are provided for the years 2020 and 2030, whereas the latter is an expert-based extrapolation. This information is required for calibrating the shape of the s-curve (see Chapter 4). All data are provided in the form of ranges. For calibrating the upper value of the range can be used. An important effect of determining high penetrations of renewable heating and cooling technologies is exclusion through competition: not all options can be applied to the maximum, as they compete to supply the same heat demand. The cumulative effect of the renewable technologies should thus be corrected, by approximately 10-20%. Specifically in the case of large-scale SNG production from gasification this is not a problem, as the SNG can still be used for example in advanced condensing boilers. 2.1 Warmte uit zonneenergie In a previous roadmap the solar thermal industry association Holland Solar assumed 10 km 2 collector surface in 2030, 13 PJ/year (Holland Solar, 2007). This figure was updated recently, which has been processed below. Harmsen (2007) estimates for the year 2020 a final heat/cooling delivery of 7.4 PJ. For the services sector this is 2.6 PJ. The target range for solar thermal can be estimated as 7-25 PJ/year in 2030 (depending on upper value according to new Holland Solar projection). Arguments for this increase mainly lie in the strong uptake after 2020 as a result of increased requirements to new buildings (Bouwbesluit (building code), system size of 8 to 12 m 2 including compact heat storage). Solar thermal 2020 [PJ final energy] 2030 [PJ final energy] Residential Services Industry < 1 < 1 Total

15 2.2 Biomassa For the application of biomass in the Netherland it is very important to take also imports into account. This has been done implicitly in the overview below. The estimates are to a large extent based on current penetrations. For future penetrations, also the option of grid-connected biogas (substitute natural gas, SNG) will be considered. Data from Dutch statistics (CBS, for the year 2007) Industry Buildings Other Total Biomass Grid (includes large scale biomass) Final heat PJ (RE share only) n.a. n.a Biomass Non-Grid Final heat PJ Biogas Grid Final heat PJ Biogas Non-grid Final heat PJ Biomass total Final heat PJ Harmsen (2007) estimates that biomass CHP installations in the residential sector have a potential of 11.6 PJ by Individual biomass boilers are assumed to be constant over time (no growth). The subdivision into wood log / wood chips / wood pellets is difficult to make for the Dutch market, and has been done assuming simply a 1/3 share for each technology in the building sector, whereas wood log actually is not expected to increase, but chips and pellets are. Harmsen (2007) further estimates that biomass CHP installations in the services sector have a potential of 1.6 PJ by This technology is mentioned under district heating although the CHP installation in most cases will only serve one or a few buildings. Not- CHP options are not considered in the report. Biomass CHP installations in the industry sector have a potential of 14.3 PJ by For heat only the estimate is 32.1 PJ. Biomass 2020 [PJ final energy] 2030 [PJ final energy] Residential non-grid Wood log Wood chips Wood pellets

16 Residential district heating Services non-grid 0 0 Wood log 0 0 Wood chips 0 0 Wood pellets 0 0 Services district heating Industry CHP Industry heat only Industry SNG gasification Total Warmtepompen The penetration of heat pumps is difficult to estimate. One high-penetration route might be that a combined condensing boiler plus aerothermal heat pump installation becomes the default next-generation condensing boiler, used as a standard option for all boiler replacements. Whereas a conventional condensing boiler can be regarded as a heat generating equipment with a conversion efficiency of 107%, the new installation might have an overall efficiency of up to 130%. This means that the primary energy required for generating X PJ heat will be reduced to 0.82 X, with 0.18 X recovered from ambient air. In this way, 18% of final energy demand can be provided in a renewable fashion. Harmsen (2007) estimates the potential in 2020 as 57.2 PJ final heat in the renovations of existing dwellings, an enormous potential, largely driven by the replacement rate of conventional (condensing) boilers. A second option, a heat pump for hot sanitary water generation is estimated by Harmsen (2007) as 1.7 PJ in For new housing projects, the renewable potential of heat pumps is estimated as 9.2 PJ. Application of underground thermal storage is estimated as 4.5 PJ for cooling demand. Also for the service sector data are provided in Harmsen (2007) see the table below. The data in the table below do not only show the renewable share, but the total final heat delivered (including conventional energy share). Heat pumps 2020 [PJ final energy] 2030 [PJ final energy] Residential renovations combined condensing boiler heat pump

17 Hot water heat pump Residential new housing Heat pump Underground storage 3-5 (cooling) 5-10 (cooling) Services renovations combined condensing boiler heat pump for cooling for cooling Hot water heat pump 0 0 Services new built Heat pump Underground storage (cooling) (cooling) Total The above ranges have been used (slightly adapted in some cases) in the stakeholder consultation and have also been discussed at the workshop in the Hague. Since the report discussed here has addressed all technologies no further roadmaps, scenarios or assessments have been listed here. Harmsen (2007) is considered leading in the area of RES-H/C and has incorporated a lot of technology-specific knowledge. 2.4 Andere opties The option of deep geothermal is not explicitly considered in the RES-H Policy project templates. The table below gives some ranges for the targets, based on Harmsen (2007). Deep geothermal 2020 [PJ final energy] 2030 [PJ final energy] Residential Services 0 0 Industry Total

18 3 Top-down benadering 3.1 Het Green-X model The model Green-X has been developed by the Energy Economics Group (EEG) at Vienna University of Technology in the research project Green-X Deriving optimal promotion strategies for increasing the share of RES-E in a dynamic European electricity market. In the RES-H Policy project Green-X is applied to perform a detailed quantitative assessment of the future deployment of renewable energies on country level, sector level as well as technology level. The general modelling approach to describe renewable energy generation technologies in the model Green-X is to derive dynamic cost-resource curves for each generation and reduction option in the investigated region. More detail on the technical background of Green-X is presented in Annex A. This annex provides also simulation results for the EU-27 region. 3.2 Green-X resultaten voor Nederland Scenario-aannames This section presents results for the so called strengthened (national) policies scenario derived by the Green-X model: in this scenario it is assumed that the European RES policy framework will be improved with respect to its efficiency and effectiveness. These changes will become effective by 2011 in order to meet the agreed target of 20% RES by Improvements refer to both the financial support conditions (if necessary) as well as to non-financial barriers. See Annex A for more detail on the scenario assumptions Het aandeel van duurzame warmte in duurzame energie As shown in Figure 3 a steep increase in their RES generation for the Netherlands. It is expected that the RES generation will rise from 21.3 TWh (76.7 PJ) in 2006 to above 75 TWh (270 PJ) in 2020 and further to more than 100 TWh (more than 360 PJ) until RES electricity is the most important sector in the overall RES generation in the Netherlands. It shows a strong increase until 2020 then the growth slows down. For RES-transport a constant growth is expected. 18

19 RES generation (TWh) RES-electricity (& CHP) RES-transport RES-heat Figure 3 RES generation until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands Figure 4 shows that the Netherlands will reach a total RES share on gross final energy demand of 12% until 2020 and of 16% by Noticeable is a strong growth in the electricity sector, which is cut off abruptly from 2022, as a 40% RES-E in total electricity is a reasonable high penetration. The renewable heat and transport sectors show lower rates of increase than the total RES-share on gross final energy demand. The share of renewable energies in the heat sector will grow to about 11% by RES share on gross final energy demand 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2006 electricity heat transport total final energy demand - medium Figure 4 The share of RES on gross final energy demand until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands 19

20 3.2.3 Ontwikkeling van hernieuwbare warmte In Figure 5 the heat generation by RES in the Netherlands is shown for each technology. It can be observed that heat pumps show a significant increase until 2030, when they become the most important contribution to the overall portfolio. Until 2020 the RES-H production through heat pumps will exceed 6 TWh (21.6 PJ) and thereafter the contribution will further rise. Solid biomass (non grid) and biogas heat generation are close to their saturation point in 2010 already. In contrast grid connected solid biomass and biogenic waste (biowaste) will grow steadily until Geothermal heat (grid) shows only a small potential and remains below 0.1 TWh (0.36 PJ) annual output until Solar thermal heating and hot water shows a steady growth until Afterwards it starts to saturate. Solar thermal is projected to have an important contribution at approximately 5 TWh (18.0 PJ) by 2020 and remaining constant up to RES-H generation (TWh) Biogas (grid) Biowaste (grid) Solid biomass (non-grid) Heat pumps Solid biomass (grid) Geothermal heat (grid) Solar thermal heating and hot water Figure 5 RES-H generation (technologies) until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands Figure 6 shows an increase in non-grid connected RES-H technologies. According to Green-X currently there are 4.6 TWh (16.6 PJ) produced in RES-H (non grid). This amount is projected to triple until 2020 and grow further and reach about 24 TWh (about 86.4 PJ) annual output by Until 2020 district heating & large scale RES-H technologies will reach about 2 TWh (about 7.2 PJ) annual output. Renewable energy in combined heat and power (RES-H CHP) shows an increase of its heat production form currently about 3 TWh (about 10.8 PJ) to 6.4 TWh (23.0 PJ) by

21 From Figure 7 it can be seen that in thermal capacity terms solar thermal and heat pumps are expected to be dominating technologies. For solar thermal this is an indication that the average load factor of the technology is relatively small. Moreover, it is confirmed from this figure that according to Green-X the additional solar thermal capacity is expected to remain largely unchanged RES-H generation (TWh) RES-H non-grid RES-H district heating & large scale RES-H CHP Figure 6 RES-H generation (sectors) until 2030 in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands new installed annual RES-H capacity (MW) Heat pumps Solar thermal heating and hot water Solid biomass (non-grid) Geothermal heat (grid) Biowaste (grid) Solid biomass (grid) Biogas (grid) 21

22 Figure 7 New installed RES-H capacity in a strengthened policy scenario in the Netherlands 22

23 4 Bottom-up benadering This section of the report explores the bottom-up based scenarios for three RES-H/C technologies: solar thermal, biomass and ambient heat using heat pumps. The analysis is carried out both for the building sector (residential and non-residential buildings) and the industry sector (process heat). In section 4.1 the general approach and methodology for the analysis is described. In section 4.2 the resulting potentials are being presented, and section 4.3 summarises the results. The underlying details of the analysis have been presented in Appendix B. Appendix D provides the building data. 4.1 Algemene aanpak en methodologie We use the term bottom-up for this approach because we use disaggregated data of the building stock, available roof area, currently existing heating systems etc. Therefore, this approach can provide a detailed data basis supporting the technology specific target setting process. The objective of carrying out this bottom-up analysis is to understand the bottom-up meaning and relevance of a certain target more clearly. For example, this analysis helps to identify the share of roof area that has to be equipped with solar collectors or the share of single dwellings with wood pellets boilers. Thus, it is a tool for increasing the transparency of the target setting and can help us to assess how ambitious a certain target is. We want to state clearly that it is not an objective of this task to provide a prognosis of what will happen. Also, economic restrictions are not explicitly taken into account 1 (also this is implicitly the case by setting certain values for diffusion restrictions). Rather, the approach helps us to show the relation between certain diffusion parameters and the related energy output. Available biomass potentials are an important restriction for the development of this sector. In particular, the comparison of regionally available biomass potentials with the demand can give us a hint to what extent biomass imports might be necessary. For this purpose, the following section compares the biomass demand with the available biomass potentials for heating. Biomass potentials for heating were derived from EEA 2007 subtracting the biomass demand for electricity generation and transport. This has been done for the different biomass fractions. Thus, the different characteristics of e.g. ligno-cellulose biomass vs. plant oil were taken into account. The potential not iused in the building sector was considered available for industry. 1 This will be done in the model based analysis of WP4 of the project. This will include modelling the impact of various economic incentives, economic side conditions like energy price settings etc. 23

24 Gebouwde omgeving In the following, we give a rough overview on the general methodological steps that are applied for the building sector. 1. Firstly we assume a certain maximum technology penetration. The definition of the technology penetration is related to a time span (see next step): 98% of the maximum technology penetration will be achieved after a certain diffusion time (e.g. x% of buildings equipped with a certain biomass heating system or solar collectors). 2. As the second step we assume a certain diffusion time constant. The setting of this time constant has to be seen in relation to the maximum technology penetration defined in step 1. From typical historical diffusion processes we know that in the building sector usually time constants between about 30 and 60 years can be observed. 3. With steps one and two we have defined key parameters for the possible future diffusion of this technology. However, of course the actual development also depends on the maturity of a market and thus the current penetration of a technology has to be documented and taken into account in the third step. 4. With these three parameters defined in the first three steps we determine the diffusion of a technology by a standard S-Curve approach (see figure below). The concrete values of these diffusion parameters are documented below for the different technologies solar collector area (Mm²) Diffusion time Maximum technology penetration Current penetration Figure 8 Principle of a S-curve diffusion approach applied in the bottom-up analysis of the building sector 5. Besides this standard approach determining the scenario of the technology diffusion we assume a certain rate of thermal renovation within the building stock 24

25 (different construction periods are treated separately). This is in particular essential for the amount of energy that is provided by a certain technology. With increasing thermal building efficiency an increasing number of heating systems can lead to a stable or even declining heat output. In our results presented below this is to some extent relevant for the biomass heating results. 6. As a last step, we are carrying out additional checks regarding basic consistency e.g. with current annual installations and total amount of RES-H in different building classes. This methodology is applied both on residential and non-residential buildings. We are distinguishing the three main technology sectors: solar thermal collectors, biomass, and heat pumps. The specific methodological approaches, assumptions and results are documented in the chapters below. In Annex B parameters and results for solar thermal collectors, biomass and heat pumps respectively in the building sector are presented. The results of the analysis are displayed in section 0. Industrie Also for the industry sector a bottom-up approach is applied. The same restrictions apply as indicated for the building sector: the outcomes primarily serve as a base for discussion. Characteristics of industrial processes are decomposed into energy use in different industrial subsectors, distinguishing between temperature level and energy carriers currently used. Three separate methodological steps are applied for the industry sector: 1. Based on several data sources, non-electric and non-feedstock energy use in industrial processes is decomposed into energy use per energy carrier, per temperature level and per industry subsector and extrapolated to the year For the base year 2005, each of the abovementioned decomposed energy uses are assigned energy conversion technologies, based on statistical information. 3. Applying a series of substitution and exclusion rules, a set of constraints is applied which indicates which share of the industrial energy use in the country at stake is available for RES-H/C: the potential or target (depending on the setting of the single parameters). The first two steps help to define the future energy use and the technologies applied, and the third step uses the detailed and decomposed picture to narrow down all possible applications of renewable energies in processes. The constraints applied are discussed in detail in Annex C. 25

26 4.2 Potentiëlen voor gebouwde omgeving en industrie Annex B reported in detail on the parameters used for calculating the realisable potentials for the building sector. The results from this exercise have are being shown in terms of number of systems installed and energy generation. Section reports on solar thermal, section on biomass and section on heat pumps in buildings. Note, that in this stage of the modelling deep geothermal has not been considered in the residential sector (but it will be later in the RES-H Policy process). Section reports on the modelling outcomes for industry. 26

27 4.2.1 Zonnewarmte gebouwen Solar thermal collectors are allowed to grow fast, to 20.9 PJ by This analysis takes into account all opportunities for solarthermal, both in existing buildings and in newly built houses, both in the residential and in the service sector. The results are provided both in terms of solar colleactor area as for solar thermal energy. solar collector area (Mm²) Figure 9 Installed solar collector area in residential buildings in the selected bottomup scenario solar thermal energy (TJ) Figure 10 Solar thermal heat generation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario 27

28 4.2.2 Biomassa gebouwen Biomass energy can be split into different technologies. To begin, typical for the Netherlands is that wood log is expected to remain unchanged. Specific conditions in the Netherlands are underlying this output (see also Chapter 5). For wood chips the situation is equal, but wood pellets might see an increase in relative importance towards The most important contribution is possible in biomass district heating Number of buildings with biomass heating system Biomass district heating Wood Pellets Wood chips Wood log Figure 11 Number of residential buildings with biomass heating systems in the selected bottom-up scenario 28

29 Biomass primary energy for heating in the building sector (TJ) Biomass district heating Wood Pellets Wood chips Wood log Biomass potential for heat production Figure 12 Biomass fuel input for heating and hot water preparation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario Biomass usefule heat in the building sector (TJ) Biomass district heating Wood Pellets Wood chips Wood log Figure 13 Biomass useful heat generation in residential buildings in the selected bottom-up scenario 29

30 4.2.3 Warmtepompen gebouwen In line with the previous Chapter, the possible contribution from ambient heat through the use of heat pumps might increase enourmously. The pace of this technology s success is given mainly by the replacement rate of conventional gas boilers and new-tobuild dwellings and offices number of buildings with heat pumps Figure 14 Number of buildings with heat pumps in the selected bottom-up scenario Ambient energy (TJ) Figure 15 Ambient heat utilization from heat pumps in the building sector in the selected bottom-up scenario 30

31 4.2.4 Potentieel voor Duurzame warmte voor de industrie Annex C presents in detail the modelling approach to determine the potential of RES-H in industry. This section reports on the outcomes of this analysis. From Table 1 it can be concluded that the most important contribution possibly can be expe ted from biomass: with an energy input of 38.8 PJ by 2020 and 65.6 PJ by 2030 its share in final energy use of the Dutch industry could rise to 8.4% and 13.7% in those years respectively (see Table 2). Deep geothermal could contribute with 5 PJ in 2020 and 10 PJ in The projected value for 2010 is too ambitious, especially considering the fact that in 2007 there has been no deep geothermal in place at all. This projection might be adjusted later in the process (Chapter 5). The least important contribution is expected from solar thermal, with almost 1 PJ by 2030 (0.8 PJ). The data for three target years have been discussed with the Dutch Industry association Holland Solar. Note that the table makes the differences for input versus output explicit, which is mainly relevant for biomass. The biomass input can be used in three conversion processes, namely to generate heat (the main purpose of this industry modelling exercise), electricity (an important contributor to energy supply, but in this section figuring as a byproduct) and bio-sng (biomass-based substitute natural gas). Note, that the energy losses within the conversion steps are significant: this can be explained by the mix of processes that for which aggregate inputs and aggregate outputs are being reported here: also, two different fuel qualities have been modelled: wood (high quality fuel) and waste (low quality fuel). Table 4 and Figure 17 present in numerical and graphical form the outcomes of the modelling approach for industry in the Netherlands. It becomes clear that for the use of biomass in industry the demand constraint is not the limiting factor, but rather the resources constraint. However, for deep geothermal and solar thermal the limiting factor is the equipment constraint: the remaining solar thermal potential is reduces heavily, to 0.04% of total energy use in industry. The same applies to deep geothermal, but the effect here is less dramatic due to its technology properties (high energy yield per technology, the more constant supply and the temperature level which is generally higher than solar thermal. The values from this analysis will be compared in Chapter 6. 31

32 Table 1 Projection of total final energy use and renewable heating technologies in industrial processes in the Netherlands (sources: ODYSSEE 2009, PRIMES 2007, RESolve-H/C) Unit Conventional energy use PJ Solarthermal PJ Geothermal PJ Biomass PJ (input) of which waste PJ (input) of which wood PJ (input) Biomass PJ (heat output) Biomass PJ (electricity output) Biomass PJ (bio-sng output) Biomass PJ (total output) All renewables PJ Projection of final energy use [PJ] in industrial processes in the Netherlands Conventional energy use Solarthermal Geothermal Biomass Figure 16 Projection of final energy use [PJ] in industrial processes in the Netherlands 32

33 Table 2 Contribution [%] to the final energy input in industrial processes in the Netherlands Solarthermal Geothermal Biomass Table 3 RES-H/C technologies providing final renewable heat [PJ] for industrial processes in the year 2020 in the Netherlands (source: RESolve-H/C) Technology Input Heat Electricity Bio-SNG Combined heat and power Waste Combined heat and power Wood Direct firing Wood Electricity from digestion Waste Heat only Waste Heat only Wood Bio-SNG from digestion Waste Bio-SNG from gasification Waste Bio-SNG from gasification Wood Direct geothermal heat use Geothermal Direct solar thermal heat use SolarThermal Subtotal biomass Waste Subtotal biomass Wood Total biomass Wood and Waste Overall system conversion efficiency for biomass (weighted) Wood and Waste 25% 12% 5% Total all technologies All

34 Table 4 Impact of applying series of constraints to the final energy demand in industrial processes in the Netherlands RES technology Solar thermal Geothermal Biomass All resources After demand side constraint After resources constraint After equipment constraint After competition constraint 15% 15% 0.04% 0.04% 30% 30% 1.1% 1.1% 228% 8% 8% 8% 273% 53% 9% 9% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% After demand side constraint After resources constraint After equipment constraint After competition constraint Solarthermal Geothermal Biomass Figure 17 Impact of applying series of constraints to the final energy demand in industrial processes in the Netherlands 4.3 Samenvatting van gebouwde omgeving en industrie The previous chapters presented results of the bottom-up analysis for the building and the industry sector for the technologies biomass, ambient energy and solar thermal energy. The following tables show the contribution of each of these sectors for the different technologies as well as the total sum of RES-H final energy. 34

35 Table 5: Synthesis of the bottom-up analysis in the industry and building sector (PJ) PJ INDUSTRY BUILDINGS TOTAL Type Biomass Ambient energy Solarthermal Deep geothermal n.a. n.a. n.a Total It can be observed from the above table that in all sectors and for all technologies high growth rates might be realised. For biomass, industry is a relatively important market from the viewpoint of the potentials, compared to the building sector (19.4 PJ out of a total of 52.5 PJ by 2030). For the other technologies industry plays a minor role (solar and geothermal) or is even absent (ambient heat). Still, the main contribution for renewable heating options is expected in the building sector, where heat pumps might contribute most to the generation of renewable heat (up to 55 PJ in 2030). Solar thermal and biomass contribute importantly to the potential in thebuilding sector. Deep geothermal has not been assessed in the buildings sector. 35

36 5 Lessen uit literatuur, top-down en bottom-up benaderingen, nieuwe doelstelling Chapters 2 to 4 provide three different approaches for assessing the renewable heating and cooling potential. From the synthesis section in this report it becomes clear that ranges may vary considerably for various technologies. In this section all suggestions from the previous analyses have been taken note of, and on a per-technology basis realisable potentials have been derived, considering thereby existing policy, proposed policy and detailed knowledge of various energy demand sectors. The potentials have been defined additional to the renewable energy projection as presented in the ECN Reference projections (Daniëls, Kruitwagen et al., April 2010) in which the European target for the Netherlands (of 14% of gross final energy consumption) is being met. The sections below estimate the impact of additional policy measures, resulting in an additional realisable potential. These estimates have been presented and discussed at the RES-H Policy workshop of May 2010 in Amsterdam and have been documented in (Daniëls, Elzenga et al, April 2010). The synthesis table at the end of this section summarises all data, including the projections according to the reference projections. Biomassa in houtkachels en blokverwarming Biomassa in houtkachels heeft betrekking op kachels bij individuele huishoudens. Openhaarden hebben een slecht rendement, maar er zijn ook pelletkachels met goed rendement op de markt. Die pelletkachels zijn vanwege de opslag van houtvoorraad alleen toepasbaar in woningen met voldoende ruimte/perceeloppervlak (vrijstaande woningen, boerderijen). Een nadeel van deze optie is de verhoogde emissie van NO x en van fijn stof. Voor zover de beschikbaarheid van duurzame biomassa beperkt is, ligt het meer in de rede om deze biomassa elders met hogere meerwaarde in te zetten. Biomassa kan ook ingezet worden voor collectieve ketels in blokverwarming. De gasvraag van ketels in blokverwarming in de woningbouw is in de Referentieraming ca. 10 PJ, waarvan 7,5 PJ in de bouwjaarklasse 1960/1990 met grote galerijflats. Ook hier geldt dat ruimte nodig is voor de opslag van pellets, terwijl niet altijd voldoende ruimte beschikbaar is. Niet alle gasvraag kan dus door biomassa worden vervangen. Het aanvullende potentieel bedraagt daarom met ca. 2 PJ een deel van de totale gasvraag. Bioketels en bio-wkk in landbouw en industrie Er is in de industrie een aanzienlijke warmtevraag die eventueel ingevuld kan worden met bio-ketels of bio-wkk. De mogelijke reststromen zijn echter vaak klein en zeer divers. Bij de geschiktste stromen bestaat kans op concurrentie met andere toepassingen. Reststromen uit de voedings- en genotmiddelenindustrie worden al voor een zeer groot deel ingezet als veevoer, voor vergisting of biobrandstoffen. Er zijn ook reststromen uit papierverwerking, bijproducten uit de productie van bio-ethanol en biodiesel. 36

37 Ook voor resthout bestaan veel toepassingen, zoals verbranding, pelletiseren en materiaalgebruik in spaanplaat of strooisel. De groei- en vervangingsmarkt voor ketels is ca. 13 PJ per jaar. Hiervan kan 20% worden benut voor verduurzaming. In 2020 kan het dan om een groei tot ongeveer 21 PJ warmtelevering met bio-ketels gaan (23 PJ vermeden primair). De vervangingsmarkt voor WKK in de industrie is ongeveer 5 PJ per jaar, waarvan 20% potentieel voor bio- WKK. De markt voor bio-wkk in de industrie in 2020 is dan ongeveer 8 PJ warmte (9 PJ primair). Dit potentieel voor bio-wkk en bio-ketels kan deels worden ingevuld met nationale biomassastromen. Met geïmporteerde biomassa is er meer mogelijk, en vanwege de beperkte schaalgrootte van de installaties heeft bio-olie dan grote technische voordelen. Het is dan de vraag is of dat binnen de duurzaamheidscriteria mogelijk is. In de glastuinbouw is het WKK-vermogen al tot meer dan 3000 MW e gegroeid. De vervangingsmarkt voor bio-wkk in de glastuinbouw is ongeveer 120 MW e per jaar, waarvan 20% kan overstappen op bio-wkk. 200 MW e in 2020 is goed voor ongeveer 4 PJ warmtelevering (4,4 PJ primair). De vervangingsmarkt voor ketels bij energieextensieve bedrijven is ongeveer 1 PJ ketelwarmte per jaar. Als 25% vervangen wordt door ketels op biomassa gaat het om ongeveer 2 PJ warmte (2,2 PJ vermeden primair). Het totaal voor bio-ketels en bio-wkk in de landbouw en industrie is dan 35 PJ warmte (39 PJ primair). Afvalverbrandingsinstallaties Het elektrisch vermogen van AVI's neemt in de Referentieraming toe, daarbij zijn inschattingen van de afvalsector aangehouden. De warmtekrachtverhouding is constant verondersteld. Het potentieel voor extra warmtenbenutting bij AVI s is in het Ecofys 2007 rapport geraamd op ca. 11 PJ. Dat is uitgaande van de toen geplande uitbreidingscapaciteit en uitgaande van restwarmtebenutting bij nieuwe AVI s en werd toen ook al als een maximum gepresenteerd. Diepe geothermie In de Referentieraming is uitgegaan van continuering van de garantieregeling en subsidie uit de MEI-regeling, die diepe geothermie aantrekkelijk maakt voor de glastuinbouw. In de Referentieraming gaat het om ca. 100 projecten tot en met De bandbreedte voor geothermie in de raming is 4 tot 11 PJ. De boorcapaciteit zal zeer waarschijnlijk een beperkende factor zijn die er voor zorgt dat de onderkant van de bandbreedte waarschijnlijker is dan de bovenkant van de bandbreedte. Geothermie zou ook een rol kunnen spelen bij de verduurzaming van bestaande stadsverwarming. Dat is wel afhankelijk van de situatie - soms ligt benutting van industriële restwarmte meer voor de hand. Verder speelt bij stadsverwarming vanuit zogenaamde warmteplaneenheden dat daar langetermijncontracten bestaan voor de afna- 37