Roadmap to a climate-proof Netherlands

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1 Roadmap to a climate-proof Netherlands Framework for adaptation strategy and decision support Leendert van Bree also on behalf of Nico Pieterse, Marijke Vonk, Gert-Jan van den Born, Ron Franken, Joost Knoop, Joost Tennekes, Eva Kunseler, Jelle van Minnen, and Willem Ligtvoet The Netherlands an adaptating (urban) delta through spatial planning 2 Densely built and populated Lack of space, high spatial demands Adapting to water influences for ages Large economic, landscape, nature, social, and health values to protect Transition from sectoral policies towards integrated and sustainable policies and multilevel governance 1

2 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) 3 PBL is the national institute for integral and strategic policy analysis for environment, nature and spatial planning PBL is one of the three independent assessment agencies advising ministries, government, and cabinet Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning, and the Environment (2008): What are the consequences of adaptation to the effects of climate change for the spatial planning in the Netherlands? PBL outlook Roadmap to a climate-proof Netherlands, in collaboration with many other institutes ( ): A national spatial adaptation strategy to reduce vulnerability EEA 2008 Assessment Framework as a starting point 4 2

3 PBL outlook on spatial adaptation strategy 5 Using the following approach: Update of (projected) climate change Closer look at potential exposure and sensitivity Adaptation options and selection criteria Uncertainty-proof and flexible (spatial) adaptation strategies and policy options Four strategic themes, with focus on national spatial planning and governance: Water (sea, lakes, rivers) Agriculture and nature (including fresh water supply) Urban regions (including inner cities and urban-rural transition zones) Health Roadmap to a climate-proof Netherlands 6 1. Roadmap to climate-proof Netherlands (2009) (see 2. Update of (projected) climate change effects (2010)(update from 2005) 3. Adaptation options, criteria, spatial claims and scales, and adaptive policies ( ) mainly through background documents prepared by partners and subcontractors (2009/2010): collaboration with programmes Climate changes Spatial Planning, Knowledge for Climate, DELTARES, UNESCO-IHE, Wageningen University, University of Utrecht, and Vista collaboration with WHO for Climate change and health adaptation strategy 4. National climate-proof spatial adaptation strategy (2010) Basis for the Minister of Spatial Planning and the Environment to inform the parliament on climate change adaptation policies and spatial planning Linked with the national DELTA Programme First results presented at the first DELTA Programme Conference, November 4,

4 Roadmap to adapt to flooding 7 8 4

5 Multilevel and multitask spatial planning 9 Climate change and health (example 1) 10 Potential health effects: Increased mortality/morbidity in warmer summers (heat, smog) Decreased mortality/morbidity in warmer winters Increased allergies through longer and more intense pollen season Increased infectious diseases (water-, food- and vector-borne) through higher temperatures and more rainfall (higher humidity) Huynen et al. (2008) first estimates on impacts in NL for 2050: Each year hundreds of premature deaths and thousands cases of disease 5

6 Adaptation studies on health effects 11 Potential health effects Update (in collaboration with ICIS Maastricht University) Relevance and uncertainty expert survey (Utrecht University Copernicus Institute) Adaptation and policy options PBL WHO collaboration on Policy options for climate change and health Adaptation strategy Final report December 2010 PBL/WHO Policy options for climate change and health 12 Strategic health themes for adaptation agreed at 5 th Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health, Parma: 1. HEALTH IN ALL POLICY - Ensure that all current and future mitigation and adaptation climate change measures, policies and strategies include health issues at all levels; 2. HEALTH SYSTEMS - Strengthen public health and health services to improve their capacity to prevent, prepare, and cope with climate change effects; 3. AWARENESS RAISING - Raise awareness to encourage healthy mitigation and adaptation policies in all sectors; 4. RESEARCH, INFORMATION SYSTEMS, METHODS, AND TOOLS - Sharing of best practices, tools, data and information, and targeted research. PBL-WHO take these strategic health themes as the basis for directing adaptation strategies 6

7 PBL/WHO workshop Policy options for climate change and health January The PBL/WHO workshop agreed on the guidance on effectiveness of uncertainty-robust adaptation strategies using three categories of adaptation options: 1. Capacity-building options enhancing system s capacity to respond to health impacts of climate change 2. Instrumental options facilitating institutional ability to respond 3. Health-specific options reducing or preventing health-specific impacts The workshop also agreed on the judgement of effectiveness of adaptation measures using three sets of criteria: 1. Impact of adaptation option - including health gain, economic impact, social impact, environmental impact, and encroachment 2. Approach and usefulness under uncertainty - addressing resistance, resilience, adaptive capacity, robustness, and flexibility 3. Other relevant aspects - including public support, equity, urgency, implementation time, spatial and institutional scale, and synergy with other policy fields (!) PBL/WHO Policy options for climate change and health 14 Experts agreed on a list of adaptation options Six options were selected based on highest potential health benefits and were scored using score card criteria (data analysis currently performed) Experts selected six criteria which are most important for adaptation strategies and decision support (analyses underway): 1. Costs 2. Co-benefits 3. Encroachment on society 4. No regret 5. Robustness 6. Flexibility Review with Dutch policy makers, scientists, and stakeholders (including health care professionals) 7

8 Conclusions (preliminary) 15 Policy attention for health effects and climate changes seems relatively low Lack of (quantitative) knowledge on precise nature, size, and tempo of changes; and many other factors may also be important for health effects Presumably increased health care needs (depending on adaptation) Broad package of spatial and non-spatial adaptation measures is needed to reduce the vulnerability (general population and risk groups) Spatial measures include urban structure and design, homes and buildings, and water and nature management Non-spatial measures are information exchange, awareness raising, technical measures, extra health care for risk groups, coupled with research and surveillance Targeted (non-)spatial adaptation strategy by the end of 2010) 16 Integral adaptation challenge for urban regions (example 2) Water nuisance Flooding Heat stress Drought Air pollution 8

9 EEA 2008 Assessment Framework as a starting point 17 Adaptation options in urban regions 18 Potential exposures and effects Modeled national map (with fine scale of cities and neighborhoods) of water nuisance, flooding, heat stress, and drought Large list of adaptation options, categorized for buildings, infrastructure, and public space [DELTARES / UNESCO-IHE studies] 9

10 Water nuisance (water on the street) 19 Heat stress 20 10

11 Adaptability and strategy in general 21 Adaptability A large number of adaptation measures, mostly no-regret or low-regret Tailor-made solutions always needed Additional challenges in compact (inner) cities, with coupling with mitigation and quality of life policies Coupling/synergy possibilities in urban-rural transition zones In 2060 ~80-90% of the urban regions can be made climate-proof But one has start now! Strategy Adaptation early in planning processes; coupling with existing policies Climate proofing as a chance with (large scale) urban (re)structuring Market parties do not move automatically National guidance and stimulation, but regional/local implementation Incremental and flexible adaptation strategy Towards better (risk) governance IRGC Risk Governance Concept 22 11

12 Basic elements of adaptation strategies 23 Targeted (spatial) adaptation strategies and policy options address 1. Impact (reduction of climate effects, societal encroachment, risk of not intervening) 2. Costs (damage, measures, benefits of adaptation) 3. Urgency and timing (impact, turnover time, implementation time, adaptive management 4. Spatial claims and scales (national, regional, urban, buildings, infrastructure, public space) 5. Coupling (and synergy) with other policies (mitigation, quality of life, regional/urban development, opportunities for development, joining planned investments) 6. Uncertainty proof (robust, flexible, resistance, resilient)* 7. Institutional ability and support (policy, planning, governance, national guidance, carried out in consultation between regions and cities) 8. Short-term and long-term priorities 9. New policies or integration with existing ones 10. Flexible adaptation strategies, also linked to sustainability, regional and urban development, and governance 24 12

13 Adaptation strategy and uncertainty* Which type of uncertainty dominates? 2. Which time horizon taking into account? 3. How robust against which (wide) range of CC scenario s? 4. How much flexibility and irreversibility can be built in? 5. How to increase adaptive capacity and response rate with shock events? 6. What to do to avoid surprises later on? 7. How to organise anticipating and learning capacity of the system? * From Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation - a Scoping Study, Dessai and Van der Sluijs,