CCE Progress Report 2007 Page 1 of 201

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1 CCE Progress Report 2007 Page 1 of 201 MNP Report /2007 Critical Loads of Nitrogen and Dynamic Modelling CCE Progress Report 2007 J. Slootweg, M. Posch, J.-P. Hettelingh (eds.) Contact: J. Slootweg CCE/LED wge Working Group on Effects of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution ICP M&M Coordination Centre for Effects

2 Page 2 of 201 CCE Progress Report 2007 This investigation has been performed by order and for the account of the Directorate for Climate Change and Industry of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment within the framework of MNP project M/500090, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE); for the account of the European Commission LIFE+ programme within the framework of MNP project E/ European Consortium for Modelling Air Pollution and Climate Strategies (EC4MACS) and for the account of (the Working Group on Effects within) the trust fund for the partial funding of effect-oriented activities under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. ISBN: MNP 2007 Parts of this publication may be reproduced, on condition of acknowledgement: 'Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the title of the publication and year of publication.'

3 CCE Progress Report 2007 Page 3 of 201 Contents Acknowledgements...4 Abstract...5 Rapport in het kort...6 Introduction...7 Part I Status of Maps and Methods 1. Status of European critical loads with focus on nitrogen Summary of national data Critical loads and dynamic modelling of nitrogen Tentatively exploring the likelihood of exceedances: Ensemble Assessment of Impacts (EAI) LRTAP land cover map of Europe Application of the harmonized land cover map Background database for computing critical loads for the EECCA countries, Turkey and Cyprus...89 Part II National Focal Centre Reports AUSTRIA BELGIUM (Wallonia) BULGARIA CANADA CYPRUS CZECH REPUBLIC GERMANY FRANCE IRELAND ITALY LATVIA THE NETHERLANDS NORWAY POLAND RUSSIA SLOVENIA SWEDEN SWITZERLAND UNITED KINGDOM Appendix A. Appendix B. Appendix C. Instructions for submitting empirical critical loads of nitrogen Instructions for submitting critical loads of N and S and dynamic modelling data Guidance notes for lead authors of the IPCC fourth assessment report on addressing uncertainties...198

4 Page 4 of 201 CCE Progress Report 2007 Acknowledgements The methods and data contained in this report are the product of collaboration within the Effects Programme of the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, involving many institutions and individuals throughout Europe. National Focal Centres, whose reports regarding modelling and mapping activities appear in Part II, are gratefully acknowledged for their contribution. In addition the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) acknowledges: - the Directorate for Climate Change and Industry of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, and Mr. J. Sliggers in particular, for their continued support, - the Working Group on Effects and the Task Force of the International Co-operative Programme on Modelling and Mapping of Critical Levels and Loads and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and Trends in particular, for their collaboration and assistance, - the EMEP Meteorological Synthesizing Centres and the EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis for their collaboration in the field of atmospheric dispersion and integrated assessment modelling, - the UNECE secretariat of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution for its valuable support, including the preparation of official documentation, and - the European Commission s LIFE+ programme for co-funding the participation of the CCE in the European Consortium for Modelling Air Pollution and Climate Strategies (EC4MACS).

5 CCE Progress Report 2007 Page 5 of 201 Abstract Critical loads of nitrogen and dynamic modelling This report summarizes the results of the 2006/2007 collaboration of the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) with its National Focal Centres (NFCs) concerning the call for data of nitrogen-related parameters. The voluntary nature of this call was intended to give scientific and technical leeway to the NFCs for testing new knowledge, prior to possible revisions of the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol and the Thematic Strategy for air pollution of the European Commission. New aspects of this call, in relation to earlier ones, are data concerning empirical critical loads of nitrogen, special attention for Natura 2000 areas, and the way that the dynamic modelling results can be applied in integrated assessment. Nineteen NFCs responded to the call for voluntary data of which seventeen countries submitted modelled critical loads, 12 responded to the call for empirical critical loads and 11 submitted data for dynamic modelling. To complete a European map, a background database (including EECCA countries) of empirical critical loads has been compiled based on the newly available harmonised land cover map for the Convention. Modelled critical loads of nitrogen are based on limits regarding nitrogen in the soil solution. Empirical critical loads, on the other hand, are based on findings regarding (vegetation) effects of (elevated) nitrogen deposition. Empirical critical loads are generally higher for the most sensitive ecosystems, compared to modelled critical loads. However, an ensemble assessment of the uncertainty of the exceedances of the two kinds of critical loads strengthens the robustness of the location of ecosystems at risk. For this a method similar to the treatment of uncertainties by the FCCC-IPCC has been tentatively applied. In general, the computed sensitivity for eutrophication of ecosystems within Natura 2000 areas is similar as other protected areas designated by European countries. Additional knowledge is required on the effects of exceedances of either critical load and related indicators and values for critical limits, for instance effects on biodiversity. For this, European wide application of dynamic vegetation models is the way forward. NFC-results are described of the use in dynamic models of basic deposition scenarios that were compiled and provided by the CCE. Outcomes of this new approach (9 years, 7 variables) may assist the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling in representing the temporal development of impacts caused by a wide range of emission reduction scenarios. Key words: nitrogen, critical loads, air pollution, biodiversity, dynamic modelling

6 Page 6 of 201 CCE Progress Report 2007 Rapport in het kort Kritische drempels voor stikstof and dynamische modellering In dit rapport staan de resultaten van de samenwerking in 2006/2007 tussen het Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) en zijn National Focal Centres (NFC s) waarin de call for data voor stikstofgerelateerde gegevens centraal staat. Het vrijwillige karakter dat de call dit jaar had, maakt het mogelijk de laatste wetenschappelijke kennis te toetsen en de NFC s daarmee ervaring te laten opdoen. Dit als voorbereiding op een nieuwe call ter ondersteuning van een mogelijke revisie van het Gothenburg Protocol uit 1999 en een mogelijke herziening van de thematische strategie luchtverontreiniging van de Europese Commissie. Nieuwe aspecten van deze call zijn de aparte toepassing van empirische drempelwaarden van stikstofdeposities, speciale aandacht voor Natura 2000-gebieden, en het formaat van de resultaten van dynamische modellering, waardoor die direct toegepast kunnen worden bij het geïntegreerd doorrekenen van beleidsopties. Negentien NFC s hebben gereageerd op de call, waarvan zeventien gemodelleerde kritische drempels hebben aangedragen, twaalf de empirische benadering hebben toegepast, en elf resultaten van dynamische modellering hebben opgestuurd. Ter aanvulling van de Europese kaart (inclusief EECCA landen) van kritische grenswaarden, is een achtergrond database met empirische drempelwaarden gemaakt, mede op basis van de voor de Conventie geharmoniseerde landgebruikkaart die nu beschikbaar is. De gemodelleerde kritische drempels voor stikstof zijn gebaseerd op een grenswaarde voor de uitspoeling van stikstof. Met behulp van een massabalans is deze hoeveelheid om te rekenen in een drempelwaarde voor de depositie. Empirische kritische drempels zijn afgeleid van geconstateerde effecten op ecosystemen die optreden bij een (additionele) stikstofdepositie. In vergelijking met gemodelleerde kritische drempels voor stikstof zijn empirische kritisch waarden over het algemeen hoger voor de meest gevoelige ecosystemen. Maar de in kaart gebrachte overschrijdingen van empirische kritische drempels voor stikstof komen goed overeen met die van gemodelleerde drempels. Dit wordt bevestigd door toepassing van de methode waarop de FCCC-IPCC met onzekerheden omgaat. Er lijkt geen systematische afwijking te zijn tussen Natura 2000-gebieden en overige natuurlijke gebieden. Het blijkt wel belangrijk om meer te weten over de effecten (op bijvoorbeeld biodiversiteit) van overschrijding en in het bijzonder over de indicatoren en kritische grenswaarden. Hiertoe is Europees brede toepassing van dynamische vegetatie modellen nodig. De door de NFC s doorgerekende scenario s en opgestuurde resultaten (negen jaren, zeven variabelen) maken het mogelijk om alternatieve scenario s van het Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM) te evalueren. Hiertoe zullen het CCE en Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) de database met kritische drempels, die in het RAINS model is opgenomen, uitbreiden met de resultaten van dynamische modellering, en toepassing hiervan uittesten. Trefwoorden: stikstof, kritische drempelwaarden, luchtverontreiniging, biodiversiteit, dynamische modellering

7 CCE Progress Report 2007 Page 7 of 201 Introduction This report describes the results of the call for data on empirical critical loads of nitrogen and on results of European applications of dynamic models running predefined deposition scenarios. In its 25 th session in September 2006, the Working Group on Effects (WGE), approved the proposal of the CCE workshop to issue a call for data for the nitrogen related parameters (EB.AIR/WG.1/2006/1 para.30 f). The CCE issued the call in two parts, the first on empirical critical loads in relation to a surplus of nitrogen, sent on 8 November 2006, and the second on critical loads of N and S and dynamic modelling data, sent on 16 November In addition to information provided in the Mapping Manual ( detailed instruction documents for both parts were compiled by the CCE and distributed to the National Focal Centres. Chapter 1 serves as an executive summary, including critical loads for nitrogen, both empirical and modelled, acidification, exceedance maps and dynamic modelling. Chapter 2 analyses the data on critical loads and dynamic modelling submitted by National Focal Centres, including an inter-country comparisons of data statistics. Special attention is paid to the critical limits. Chapter 3 demonstrates the potential use of the dynamic modelling results (for nutrient nitrogen) in integrated assessment. Chapter 4 explains how assemble assessment of impacts, using terminology of the FCCC-IPCC, show the robustness of exceedances of the critical loads of nutrient nitrogen. Chapter 5 documents the compilation of the harmonized land cover map of Europe for use under the LRTAP Convention. Chapter 6 shows applications of the harmonized land cover map, especially the creation of a European background database for empirical critical loads. Chapter 7 describes the extension of the background database for modelling critical loads and dynamic modelling with the EECCA countries, Turkey and Cyprus. Part II provides national reports justifying methods and data applied by National Focal Centres to enable the CCE compilation of European maps of critical loads. Finally, three Appendices reprint the two instructions for the last call for data and the IPCC guidance note on treating uncertainties, respectively.