Financiering van Containerreuzen

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1 Financiering van Containerreuzen 17 Pieter Baan

2 Vraag / aanbod Orderboeken gedomineerd door Containerreuzen Gemeten in TEU is huidige orderboek 30% van de totale container vloot (Alphaliner) Gemiddelde capaciteit orderboek is 6800 TEU / containerschip, vergeleken met 3080 TEU in huidige vloot Current fleet Orderbook Capacity (TEU) Vessels Capacity (TEU) % order Maersk 2,455, , % MSC 2,029, , % CMA CGM 1,322, , % COSCO 650, , % Hapag Lloyd 627, , % Evergreen 611, , % APL 591, , % CSCL 505, , % Hanjin 494, , % CSAV 468, , % MOL 421, , % OOCL 412, , % Hamburg Sud 405, , % NYK 397, , % K Line 342, , % Other 3,422,865 1,959 1,422, % Total 15,160,000 4,922 4,550, % Source: AXS Alphaliner

3 Vraag / aanbod Verwacht herstel afgeremd door orders Containerreuzen Levering gedomineerd door container reuzen > 10,000 TEU Sources: AXS Alphaliner, Clarkson Research Studies

4 Vraag / aanbod Charter rates en waarde van schepen terug op 2003 niveau Groei wereldwijde container markt geschat op 8.3% voor dit jaar, tot 152m TEU (Clarksons) Containter markt ziet overcapaciteit van 1.95m TEU, 13% van huidige vloot (Alphaliner) Gevolg van overcapaciteit: freight rates terug tot onder 2003-niveau USD/day Mainlane East- West Other East- West North-South Intra-regional Panamax 3500TEU Panamax 4400TEU Sub-Panamax 2750TEU Source: Clarkson Research Studies

5 Vraag / aanbod Mitigerende factoren op overcapaciteit Scrapping: voor 2011 geschat op slechts 46,500 TEU. Voor 2012 geschat op 38,600 TEU (Clarksons) Idling: Momenteel ligt 120,000 TEU (0.8%) idle, vergeleken met 1.5m TEU (12%) in Dec 2009 (Clarksons) Cascading down effect: in hoeverre wordt capaciteit vanuit Azie-Europa trade ingezet op andere trades? Sources: AXS Alphaliner, Clarkson Research Studies

6 Shipping s eigen credit crunch Wie gaat de containerreuzen financieren? Een USD460mrd orderboek Negatieve outlook shipping banken 1% 3% 18% 18% 19% Tankers 0% 41% Bulkers Combination carriers Containerships LNG Carriers LPG Carriers Other (Offshore, Cruise, MMP, FPSO, Ro-Ro) US$m Q Sources: Clarksons, Marsoft Syndicated shipping debt (LHS) Source: Clarksons Number of deals (RHS)

7 Shipping s eigen credit crunch (II) Wie gaat de containerreuzen financieren? Oorzaak Financiële crisis Effect Bank USD en EUR funding kosten zijn dramatisch gestegen Spread in bps CDS spreads (5yr) Overcapaciteit in container liner markt Risk migratie Druk op charter rates en waarde van schepen Vlucht naar top tier klanten met stabiele cashflows en lagere LTV s Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Example Scandinavian Banks Example French Banks Example UK Banks Example German banks Example PIGS Banks Source: Bloomberg Banken zien intern gevecht om kapitaal Andere sectoren (e.g. offshore) hebben betere risk/reward Exits en balans reducties Gevestigde shipping banken hebben shipping vaarwel gezegd USD 40bln Ship loan portfolio te koop

8 Verzekering van container reuzen Een voorbeeld Gemiddelde waarde USD 30,000 per container, met 15,000 containers een totale waarde USD 450mln. Totale waarde schip USD 600mln met lading en bunker kosten Totale aansprakelijkheid: verzekerde limieten tot USD 5mrd per schip Sources: Lloyds, Post & Co

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10 Discussion