Kennisuitdagingenvooreenambitieus klimaat-enmilieubeleid: de rolvan hogeronderwijsenonderzoekin eenmaatschappelijktransitieperspectief

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1 Kennisuitdagingenvooreenambitieus klimaat-enmilieubeleid: de rolvan hogeronderwijsenonderzoekin eenmaatschappelijktransitieperspectief KULeuven Duurzaamheidsdag, 20 maart 2015 Hans Bruyninckx Executive Director, European Environment Agency (EEA) 1

2 Het Europees Milieu Agentschap(EEA) What? The provision of relevant, reliable, timely, and targeted information to policy-making agents and the public. Why? To help achieve significant and measurable improvements in Europe s environment and to support sustainable development. 2

3 33 (+6) membercountries

4 THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT STATE AND OUTLOOK March 2015 SOER 2015 presentation to the European Council

5 SOER 2015 SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks and of opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the long-term vision of the 7 th EAP. SOER 2015 Synthesis report SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends Global megatrends European briefings Cross-country comparisons Countries and regions 11 briefings 25 briefings 9 briefings 39+3 briefings

6 The policy context SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Source: EEA Multiannual Work Programme

7 Het 7de Milieu Actie Plan: ambitieus en langetermijn SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society. Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

8 Key messages from SOER 2015 SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people s well-being; major challenges remain Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation

9 Eco-industries have prospered despite the recession in Europe SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Eco-industry value added Eco-industry employment 130 Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA Source: Eurostat, Total EU GDP Total EU employment

10 7de MAP als Europese beleidscontext 2050 als tijdshorizon Belangrijke beleidsinnovatie Post-2008! Agenda voor fundamentele verandering In toenemendemate ingebedin Europeesmilieu-, klimaat- en sectoraal beleid

11 Waarom? Millenium Development Goals: succes? The proportion of people living in extreme poverty has been halved at the global level The hunger reduction target is within reach Over 2 billion people gained access to improved sources of drinking water since 1990 The proportion of slum dwellers in the cities and metropolises of the developing world is declining

12 ... maar meer aandacht voor milieu! (of? ) Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) have increased by more than 46 per cent since 1990 Nearly one third of marine fish stocks have been overexploited Many species are at risk of extinction, despite an increase in protected areas

13 SOER2015 / European briefings/ Green economy Correlation of ecological footprint (2008) and the human development index (2012) SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Binnen grenzen Related Material content resource efficiency & use Source: National footprint accounts 2008, Human Development Index (HDI). Note: The Human Development Index is calculated based on indicators of life expectancy at birth, education and per capita income. It is expressed as a value between 0 and 1, from least to most developed countries. The Ecological Footprint quantifies the area of land that a population needs (per capita) to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its waste. World biocapacity is the global productive area available (per capita) on Earth. Waste management Waste Resource efficiency Hoge levenskwaliteit

14 Klassieke duurzaamheidsdenken Sociale dimensie Milieudimensie Duurzame ontwikkeling? Natuurlijk niet! Economische dimensie

15 Paradigmaverschuiving

16 Transitieperspectief Strengthening a knowledge base to respond to long term systemic ambitions EEA, MAWP

17 Ambitieus langetermijnbeleid vereist denken en handelen op systeemniveau Systemic risks (hardnekkige problemen) vereisen fundamentele oplossingen Regulier beleid is onvoldoende Marktcreatie en commodificatie zijn onvoldoende Incrementeel institutionalisme gaat te traag Efficiëntiewinsten binnen huidige systemen zijn noodzakelijk maar onvoldoende Transities = fundamentele verschuivingen in de systemen die maatschappelijke behoeftenvervullendoor veranderingenin dominantestructuren, praktijken, technologie, beleid, lifestyles, denkkaders

18 Ambitieus langetermijnbeleid vereist denken en handelen op systeemniveau

19 Efficiëntiewinst Van efficiëntieoplossingen naar systeemoplossingen technologieverschuiving Copyright: Tesla

20 SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Continued economic growth? World economic output increased 25-fold since 1900, and is expected to triple again by 2050 SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Past and projected global economic output, Related content Source: OECD Long-term Baseline Projections 2014.

21 SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Diverging global population trends The global population is expected to grow 43% by 2050, with Africa s population increasing especially fast SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS World Population projection trends, Source: UN World population prospects: The 2012 revision. Related content Consumption Green economy Urban systems

22 SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Towards a more urban world By 2050, 67% of the world population is expected to live in cities SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Related content Land systems Green economy Urban systems Source: UN World urbanization prospects: The 2012 revision.

23 SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Intensified global competition for resources World materials use has grown 10-fold since 1900 and may double again by 2030 SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Metals Fossil fuels Minerals Biomass * 2020* 2030* 2040* 2050* Consumption Resource efficiency Green economy Resource efficiency SERI (2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database Edition. Available at:

24 SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Intensified global competition for resources The geographic concentration of some raw material reserves creates supply risks for Europe SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS Proportion of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country, EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Source: European Commission Consumption Resource efficiency Green economy Resource efficiency

25 SOER2015 / Global megatrends / Growing pressures on ecosystems The ever rising pressure on the Earth s ecosystems is fuelled by meat consumption and bioenergy demand Transnational land acquisition, SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Source: Rulli et al., Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity Climate change impacts on ecosystems Land systems Natural capital and ecosystems

26 Planetary boundaries; safe operating space SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

27 7EAP: Knowledge base for the long-term -How can we improve? 7EAP objective 5: improve the knowledge and evidence base 69. Continue investing into data collection & information systems 66. Based on monitoring, data, indicators & assessment (MDIAK) 70. Common approaches & standards (e.g. SEIS, INSPIRE) 67. Improve science-policy & citizen engagement 71. Attention to specific gaps (systems, health, ) 68. Establish understanding of future trends & uncertainties 72. Riskmanagement & broader explicit societal debate

28 40 jaarkennisopbouw Evolutie in probleemdefinitie en kennisbenadering Zware industriële pollutie Single issues DPSIR denken Systeembenaderingen: probleemanalyse; denkkaders; oplossingen Evolutie in disciplinaire interesse Chemici, biologen, ingenieurs Economen, geneeskundigen, geografen, geologen Bestuurskundigen, ruimtelijke ordeners, juristen, filosofen Psychologen, historici,

29 Toekomstgerichtekennisontwikkeling Langetermijndenken Systeembenadering Betekenis van limieten in denken, onderzoek en praktijk? Methodologisch? Scenario s, future s studies, for-casting, backcasting, distance to target, gap analysis, cost/benefit analysis 2.0 Onzekerheden, non-lineariteit Niches, innovatie, R&D Sterke aandacht voor lock-ins, backlash, breakdown risks

30 Multi-phase trajectory Source: van der Brugge& de Haan(2005)

31 Multi-phase trajectory Source: van der Brugge& de Haan2005

32 Multi-phase trajectory Source: van der Brugge& de Haan(2005)

33 Multi-phase trajectory Source: van der Brugge& de Haan(2005)

34 Milieu en klimaatin hogereopleidingen Mainstreaming Zwak tot onbestaande In de evidente richtingen Keuzevakken Laat, sporadisch De zachte keuze -connotatie Specialisatie Beperkt aantal basisopleidingen Doorgedreven specialisaties: ManaMa, BanaBa Weinig echte systeembenadering Wat in de parade richtingen?

35 Eenaantaloverwegingen Opleidingen vanuit toekomstige uitdagingen? Systeembevragendebenaderingen? Voorbeelden: Vergrijzing Gezondheid Energietransitie Klimaatverandering Fiscaliteit Governance(200 of 200?)