Rijkswaterstaat. Flood Forecasts and evacuation strategies in the Netherlands. Robert Slomp Bas Kolen (HKV Lijn in Water)

Transcriptie

1 Flood Forecasts and evacuation strategies in the Netherlands Robert Slomp Bas Kolen (HKV Lijn in Water)

2 Outline 1.Flood forecasts (in the National Water Management Centre of the Netherlands) European (EFAS) Early Warning 2.Assessing Flood Forecasts (LCO) 3.Flood forecasts (in the National Water Management Centre) Coastal Rivers Lakes 4.Strategies to cope with flooding Communication - Awareness Evaluation of strategies, choices

3 Water Management Centre (& Water Room) EFAS system, European early warning (to national Governments) National Coordination Committees: LCM Environmental incidents (water) LCW Drought / water temperature LCO Threat of flooding on a national level (national early warning, 7 day lead time) Crisis advisory groups River floods and droughts WMCN Rivers Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer - WMCN Lakes Storm Surge Warning WMCN Coast Crisis Team Water Defense WMCN - CTW

4 EFAS (since November 2012) European Flood Awareness System - early warnings for large European river basins, based on 14 days weather forecast from different meteorological institutes The flood forecast is given to national organizations and to ERCC in Brussels, not to the public

5 EFAS main objectives -Catchment based information -Lead times up to days -Probabilistic information -Operationally targeted research -Comparable information across Europe -Tool for international aid assistance during crisis National water authorities International Civil Protection

6 The Water Room and its entities (National Control Centre for forecasting) National Coordination Committees: LCM Environmental incidents (water) LCW Drought / water temperature LCO Threat of flooding on a national level Crisis advisory groups River floods and droughts WMCN Rivers Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer - WMCN Lakes Storm Surge Warning WMCN Coast Crisis Team Water Defense WMCN - CTW

7 Flow Forecasting Netherlands Friday, 19 December 2014

8 National coordination Committee on threat of flooding (LCO) For a very high storm surge or an extreme flood on one of the rivers the normal procedure for warning gives too little time for handling (evacuation) The LCO is a cooperation of the and the Regional Water Authorities (Water boards) and is one of the services of the National Water Management Centre of the Netherlands The warning service for the big lakes (WDIJ), the river forecasting group or the storm surge warning service (for the Sea) give the LCO information about forecasts up to 7 days ahead The regional Water Authorities make forecasts for the expected damage To inform the top levels of the government the LCO reports the country-wide status for the dikes and the forecasted damage on the dikes and dunes along the coast or the rivers. The government can decide on measures (evacuation) if necessary 8 29 maart 2013

9 The Water Room and its entities (Control Centre for forecasting) National Coordination Committees: LCM Environmental incidents (water) LCW Drought / water temperature LCO Threat of flooding on a national level Crisis advisory groups River floods and droughts WMCN Rivers Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer - WMCN Lakes Storm Surge Warning WMCN Coast Crisis Team Water Defense WMCN - CTW

10 Inundation of the floodplain near Wamel (Waal River)

11 The Water Room and its entities National Coordination Committees: LCM Environmental incidents (water) LCW Drought / water temperature LCO Threat of flooding on a national level Crisis advisory groups River floods and droughts WMCN Rivers Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer - WMCN Lakes Storm Surge Warning WMCN Coast Crisis Team Water Defense WMCN - CTW

12 Forecasting along lakes Work flow (KNMI) (downscaled) wind fields at high spatial resolution Discharges Vecht and IJssel WAQUA Water levels & wind Wave height & wave period PC-Overslag Wave run-up height and wave overtopping volumes per dike section

13 Wave runup 13 Opleiding WDIJ februari 2013

14 WDIJ: HIRLAM /HARMONIE downscaling KNMI

15 Set-up example, FEWS Lakes 7 dec 2011

16 5e) Wave height and direction

17 5f) Run-up heights

18 Flood alert (every 6 hours) Overzicht van waarschuwingen voor alle beheerders De basis van de waterstandsverwachting is de KNMI weersverwachting van :00 met een duur van 48 uur. In de genoemde periode is de ruimtelijk gemiddelde windsnelheid voor het IJsselmeer maximaal 9,6 m/s, de bijbehorende windrichting is: 63 graden. In de genoemde periode is de ruimtelijk gemiddelde windsnelheid voor het Markermeer maximaal 9,0 m/s, de bijbehorende windrichting is: 59 graden. TYPE BEHEER DER LOCATIE CRITERI UM BD WSAGV Muiderberg-Oost WS TIJDSTIP overschrijding 1ste criterium :00 DUUR overschrijding 1ste criterium (in uren) Veronderstelde kruinhoogte (in m+nap) Waarde maximaal (in m+nap) DREMPELWAA RDE CODE (in m +NAP) geel/oranje/ro od/ap CODE 0 0,30 0,00 0,00 GEEL Nadere toelichting is verkrijgbaar bij het WMCN, telefoonnummer Legenda Type: PK = dijkvak in primaire kering KW = kunstwerk in primaire of verbindende kering SG = specifiek buitendijks gebied met speciale aandacht, bijvoorbeeld in de vorm van een kade met een veiligheidsnorm BD = buitendijks gebied Legenda Criterium: WS = de verwachtte waterstand tov NAP MKH1 = de kruinhoogte behorende bij de maatgevende hydraulische belasting van een golfoverslag van 1 liter per strekkende meter Toelichting: Voor zowel Dijkvakken in primaire keringen (PK) en Specifieke buitendijkse gebieden met speciale aandacht (SG) wordt onderscheid gemaakt tussen CODE GEEL, CODE ROOD en CODE AP. CODE GEEL is conform wens keringbeheerder ingesteld en kan indien gewenst bijgesteld worden. CODE ROOD is ingesteld conform LDHO. CODE AP staat voor CODE alarmeringspeil, dit ligt een decimeringshoogte onder de veronderstelde kruinhoogte. Voor Buitendijkse gebieden (BD) worden CODE GEEL en CODE ORANJE onderscheiden. Deze zijn ingesteld conform wens crisisorganisatie

19 The Water Room and its entities National Coordination Committees: LCM Environmental incidents (water) LCW Drought / water temperature LCO Threat of flooding on a national level Crisis advisory groups River floods and droughts WMCN Rivers Warning for the levees along the IJssel- and Markermeer - WMCN Lakes Storm Surge Warning WMCN Coast Crisis Team Water Defense WMCN - CTW

20 Storm Surge Warning Service (SVSD) Together with Hydro Meteo Centres Noordzee and Zeeland and the National Royal Meteo institute (KNMI) KNMI provides the early warnings SVSD gives warnings and alarms 12 hour before the high tide and corrects this every 3 hours SVSD sends warnings by Telephone (Water boards) SMS Internet

21 Meteo forecasts KNMI (Royal met-office) Online measurements Water levels Wind speeds Wind direction Waves Forecasts Weather Water level Measurements & forecasts Measurements Forecasts Measurements Storm surge Alert Water level forecasts alert WMCN Storm Surge Warning Service Warning by phone call for very high waterlevel Information Advise Dikewatch Regional Water Authorities (Water boards) Safety regions (emergency services) Provinces 5g) Organisation Storm surge warning service Information Warning by phone call for extreme high waterlevel alert Waterlevel forecasts Information Headquarters Press Radio en TV Internet / public LCO Decision teams Stormsurge barriers Eastern-Scheldt Krimpen a/d IJssel Maeslant barrier & Hartelcanal

22 5h) Time frame for decision making is short for the coas - 5 days ahead, 15 to 20 per cent probability - No transport possible 1 day ahead with beaufort 10/11 gale - You need to know where a storm makes landfall Time in days (day 0 is when the storm hits the coast) important variables: tide and storm direction Source: Kolen, B, 2012, Therefore policy is focused on flood defences

23 Thank you for your attention

24 Windforce 9 Bft winddirection Track of storm

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26 Evacuation strategies and flood risk Dr.ir. Bas Kolen HKV Consultants

27 Different evacuation strategies for evacuation to cope with uncertainties

28 Adaptive or flexible evacuation strategies Effectiveness of preventive evacuation is limited, vertical evacuation is needed Evacuation fraction: average number of people that can evacuate preventive based on available and required time

29 Decision support evacuation iso graph Decision makers evaluate probability of flooding and positive (reduction of damage and casualties) and negative consequences (economic disruption) for possible strategies (preventive, vertical etc) Limited experience, high (political and social) consequences Dealing with uncertainties Preparation with Evacuation ISO Graphs to support decision makers

30 Risk Awareness for public and professionals Risk perception is limited in NL (cornerstone of sucesfull prevention); OESO more attention is needed NEW: Information to the public Website App in IOS and ANDROID store Datawarehouse for professionals

31 Different users IT Architecture Datawarehouse and users as websites, can connect to the warehouse apps and common operational picture MEGO dreiging sbeelden (LWB) APP Overstr oom ik? Website verstro omik.nl Website Ons Water (IenM) Min OCW VR Ijsselland Rode Kruis Etc. Defensie Etc User `Data Warehouse Platform Overstromingen Ware house Source A Source B Source C Source D Each datasource has one owner, which is not always RWS. The owner is responsible for the quality of the data Data

32 Risk Awareness for public and professionals

33 Datawarehouse with actual information for several users Datawarehouse of RWS holds: Per section of a levee (source VNK) Flood scenario (for T100, 1.000, and ) Probability of failure of levee Overall maximum flood depth Lead time and evacuation time Shelter possibilities for each structure based on maximum water depth Flooded infrastructure (roads, rail, airport) Industrial and chemical plants in flood zone

34 Screenshots of datawarehouse Flood scenario Probability of flooding Maximum flood depth Possible shelter

35 Use datawarehouse to develop Common Operation Water Picture Professional use only (login required): Select possible flood scenario s from warehouse (use forecast, monitoring) Update flood map, map with shelter options, roads Publish and share with partners

36 Thanks for your attention Questions? Bas Kolen