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2 The Future of Libraries: Digital Love Story or Thriller? A research into predicting digital library usage amongst youths Niels Stol ANR: June 2010 Master in Marketing Management Department of Marketing Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Tilburg University Master Thesis Supervisor: Dr. C.P. Stalpers 2

3 Management Summary Libraries in the Netherlands face difficult times. Digital innovations like the ereader will change the way books are read. The question is not if the ereader will become part of daily life, but rather when. From the age of 12, libraries see a downfall in membership numbers. This downfall continues until the age of 25. This study investigates whether new products and services will increase the library usage intention of youths between the age of 12 and 25. The following problem statement has a central role in this research: What are the most important attributes libraries in the Netherlands can use to form a digital service in order to attract youths in the age group 12-25? The modified TPB model by Bos (2009) has been used as the model to predict intention of library usage. From expert and user-interviews the six most important digital library attributes have been identified: ebooks, Mediadossiers, Mode of Acquisition, Recommendations, Lending Period and Price. The six attributes were turned into a conjoint analysis. The conjoint analysis comprised the first part of a questionnaire which was conducted at several high-schools and universities. In total 306 participants successfully completed the questionnaire. The conjoint analysis provided the evidence that for Grade the attribute Mediadossiers is the most important. For Usage Intention, Price turned out to be the most important attribute. The digital library attributes under investigation all made a substantial impact on the attitude towards the offered service and the usage intention. With the use of a simulation it could be concluded that offering an ebook digitally or not, makes a significant difference. Offering ebooks as a paper book might still prove interesting for current users of the library but it is no reason for a digital minded youngster to start making use of the library. The ebook will be far more successful for attracting non-users if it can be downloaded from their own pc. A second simulation concluded that as long as the products and services are appealing, nearly 30 per cent of the respondents over 18 will most likely use the library, even if they are required to pay an annual membership fee of 30 Euros. The group of light users is expected to be the most sensitive to the height of the fee. Additional research is required to find out what the optimal pricing level would be. This research has found evidence that usage intention of the digital library can be explained with an adjusted TPB model. 3

4 Preface In the final stages of my study Business Information Technology I felt the urge to broaden my field of expertise towards Marketing. In order to achieve this, I first had to complete the Bachelor in International Business. After five years of studying in Tilburg, the two paths finally meet in the shape of this master thesis in Marketing Management. When I first heard about the digital library assignment put forward by Dr. Cedric Stalpers in December, I immediately thought that this was a great opportunity to combine my interest in both Marketing and ICT. The realisation of this project could not have happened without the help of many people. First of all, I would like to thank Dr. Cedric Stalpers for initiating the research idea and his great support and guidance throughout the process of writing this thesis. My gratitude also goes out to Sylvia Goes- Neervoort for her help with the questionnaire design and the opportunity to conduct the questionnaire at her school. Furthermore, I would like to thank Ivo Alink and Erwin van Gulik for giving me the opportunity to conduct questionnaires in their classes. Special thanks go out to my parents, sister and my friends for their continuous support during my complete study period. Last, but most definitely not least, I would like to thank my thesis buddies Anna and Maartje for the numerous coffee breaks. Niels Stol June 2010, Tilburg 4

5 Table of contents Chapter 1 Introduction Problem background Problem statement & research questions Research design Managerial and academic relevance Structure Conclusion Chapter 2 Theoretical background A model for predicting library usage Theory of Planned Behaviour Constructs Library stimuli Attitude Social influence Perceived Behavioural Control Usage intention Conclusion Chapter 3 Preliminary research Participants Procedure Results The right to exist Convenience and ease of use Right place, right time Digital products and services The future of libraries Conclusion Chapter 4 Quantitative Research Procedure Material Theory of Planned Behaviour variables

6 4.3 Participants Pilot test Conclusion Chapter 5 Results Preparation Theory of Planned Behaviour and the library TPB Regression Assumptions TPB regression Conjoint analysis Grading future libraries Usage Intention of future libraries Predicting Usage intention TPB predicting Usage Intention TPB & Current Usage predicting Usage Intention Current Usage & Attitude Towards Offered Services predicting Usage Intention Investigating User Groups Simulations Offering ebooks digitally or not The effect of Price Conclusion Chapter 6 Discussion Conclusion Discussion Recommendations for public libraries Recommendations for following research Limitations References List of figures and tables Appendices

7 Chapter 1 Introduction Providing access to information, knowledge and culture for everybody by supplying high quality library services for education, participation in society, meeting people and experiencing culture The above quote is a translation of the mission statement of the public library of Amsterdam. Many libraries in the Netherlands and abroad have had similar mission statements for decades. Although the mission statement itself has been applicable in the past and will still be applicable for the future, the strategy of accomplishing this mission should be in constant evolution. Strategies should evolve, because people s sphere of interest and the way people access information, knowledge and culture evolves as well. If the strategy remains the same, libraries run the risk of losing customers because there is insufficient interest in the provided services, or customers may have found a more accessible provider who offers similar services. Chapter one will serve as an introduction to the problem at hand. The problem background will be discussed, to prove that a problem exists and why a solution is needed. Next, the problem statement and its research questions that this Master Thesis aims to resolve will be presented, followed by the research design used to answer these questions. Finally, the practical and theoretical relevance of this research will be explained, followed by the structure of the following chapters. 1.1 Problem background The network of libraries in the Netherlands consists of approximately 1100 branches. The core domains of public libraries in the Netherlands are fivefold: knowledge and information; reading and literature; development and education; art and culture and finally, congregation and debate. Public libraries in the Netherlands have seen a steep decline in their number of customers. According to statistics from the Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) the lending of books to adults ( 18) has decreased from roughly 80 million to 64 million since a drop of 20 per cent. Book lending to youths ( 17) has remained far more stable showing a small reduction from 58 million to 55 million - a drop of just over 5 per cent. However, most libraries do not charge a membership fee to under-eighteens so the stable figures for under-eighteens might be a direct effect of this free membership. The exact book lending statistics per year can be found in Appendix I. During the same period, the total number of memberships has dropped from 4.5 million to 3.9 million. Attracting youths to the library remains difficult. Youths tend to stop making use of libraries at an increasingly younger 7

8 age. Figure 1.1 shows that at the age of 12 almost 90 per cent of all children is a library member but this peak is followed by a massive decline. Library usage has decreased amongst all target groups, but the decline has been more radical for men, the employed, and the higher educated than for women. Only for individuals from Moroccan or Turkish heritage the trend is the opposite. They are increasingly using the library, and usage amongst youths is higher than that of native Dutch youths (Huysmans & Hillebrink, 2008). Figure 1.1: Library membership by age SCP (AVO 79-03) Several factors contribute to the overall decline. One of the most important factors is that youths spent a smaller part of their leisure time on reading books (Appendix II). From 1975 until 2000, the leisure time spent on printed media showed a steady decline. Internet usage has now become the main leisure time activity, mainly at the account of printed media and television (Appendix III). Another important factor, linked to the shift in media usage, is a mismatch in products and services being offered by libraries and the demands and desires of youths. Because this young generation is highly skilled in the use of a computer, they prefer doing certain tasks at home for which they used to visit the library (Huysmans, 2008). For instance, people used to search for information using the library collection. Nowadays, people mainly use Google from their home pc. In a study by the OCLC (2005), consumers were asked what they felt was the main purpose of the library. While about a third of respondents indicated they felt the main purpose of the library is books, the majority of respondents (53%) feel that the library s main purpose is information. With the rise of search engines and digital encyclopaedia like Wikipedia, libraries are no longer the primary source for searching information (Appendix IV). In the OCLC study 72 per cent of college students prefer a search engine as the initial source of information. 8

9 Another factor, which is directly linked to the previous, is that even if people have a need for a product or service offered by the library, they are sometimes simply unaware that the library actually offers this product or service. A significant part of youths (39%) feel that the library does not provide enough information about its services (Stalpers, 2002). A third factor is the old fashioned, but trustworthy, image of the library (Stalpers, 2002). A trustworthy image is important for practically any company, but it is not a unique selling point for a library. In fact, only 22 per cent from the respondents of the OCLC study (2005) find information provided by the library to be more trustworthy than information provided by search engines. From the following quote from the OCLC study it can be concluded that the gap in trustworthiness was diminishing in Sixty-nine per cent of respondents feel that information from a search engine is at the same level of trustworthiness as a library information source. Twenty-two per cent believe that information received from a library is more trustworthy than information received from a search engine and 9 per cent indicated they believe it is less trustworthy than search engines. The execution of this research takes place in a period where reading itself will undergo one of its largest changes, due to technological innovation, since the invention of the printing press by Gutenberg around The ereader and its ebooks are on the edge of becoming mainstream. The question is not if the ereader will become part of daily life, but rather when. The first ereader was launched in Since then, much has changed. The quality of ereaders has greatly increased and more and more producers are entering the ebook market. Even traditional bookstores are now entering the ebook market. The large brick and mortar bookstore chain Barnes & Noble, for example, has launched the largest ebook store and the Nook; their own ereader. Up until now the price of the ereader was a large hurdle for most consumers. Just recently, Apple launched the ipad, which also supports ebooks. As a reaction, ereader manufacturers have started to lower their prices (Bakker; 2010). Van Dort from TNO Information- and Communication Technology concluded that ebooks and the ereader will be part of daily life as soon as When ebooks do become part of daily life, this will come at the account of paper books. Currently, paper books can still be regarded as the core business of libraries. If libraries do not adapt, they could very well be offering a product for which demand will swiftly decline. 9

10 Technological developments, like the ereader or the internet, are not just a threat to libraries, but also offer great possibilities. A more high-tech way of reading might appeal more to the digital generation. This thesis will focus on the opportunities technology can offer to libraries. Libraries are in desperate need of more strategic market research in order to turn the tide and prepare their organisation for the future. This research can serve as the foundation of the decision on the route to be taken in order to assure the future of libraries. If libraries fail to take decisive action now, their downfall will continue. Eventually this will lead to a marginal position for public libraries. 1.2 Problem statement & research questions The goal of this research is to develop and test innovative library concepts that will make libraries ready for the future. The research of this thesis will focus mainly on online (digital) products and services. The biggest challenge will be to develop a concept that will stop and reverse the downfall in lending and memberships amongst youths. The following problem statement has a central role in this research: What are the most important attributes libraries in the Netherlands can use to form a digital service in order to attract youths in the age group 12-25? The following research questions are considered for this research: Theoretical research question TRQ1: What constructs, in which model, determine library usage? Practical research questions PRQ1: PRQ2: PRQ3: PRQ4: Will new digital library services increase the attractiveness of libraries for youths? What technological developments could influence the future of libraries and what is their expected effect and impact? What constructs determine future library usage? What is the effect of price on library usage? 10

11 1.3 Research design The foundation of this thesis consists out of both existing literature and extensive interviews. Additional information about the research topic will be gathered by conducting both expert- and user-interviews. Findings from these interviews will be used to develop a questionnaire which will be conducted amongst youths. All of the information gathered should lead to several scenarios. The importance of the variables of interest - technology and service - shall be tested with a conjoint analysis. The results of this analysis will help to compose an advice for libraries on how to prepare themselves for the future. 1.4 Managerial and academic relevance Public libraries have a strong need for more innovation oriented research. Especially the group of teenagers and young adults has appeared to be a very difficult age group to retain as library members. This study can be used by libraries to launch a concept which will appeal more to teenagers and young adults, based on both qualitative and quantitative research. The execution of this research comes at, what is expected to be, a decisive point in time. The fast rising popularity of the ereader increases the possibility of a drastic change in the way people read books or access information. Research that tries to predict the breakthrough of the ereader is scarce and outdated within months. This research recognises the ereader as a valid threat and will look at the threat this new medium offers, as well as the opportunities raised. Libraries currently have a large image problem amongst teenagers and young adults which makes the library a hard brand to market. Results from this study will show whether it is really an image problem or whether the problems libraries are facing with youths is due to a mismatch of products and services. From an academic point of view, this research can contribute to further studies in several areas. First of all, it can serve as a source of information for ongoing research for libraries. Demands by customers will change over time and libraries need ongoing research to recognise a change in demands in time. The present models that predict library usage will be reviewed and tested in this research. If necessary, adjustments to these models will be made in order to make them suitable for predicting digital library usage. 11

12 1.5 Structure First, the existing literature for predicting library usage will be discussed in chapter two. The data will be gathered from a combination of qualitative and quantitative research; a so called pluralistic approach (Burns & Bush; 2006). The qualitative research will take place through the use of interviews, which will be explained in chapter three. The design of the quantitative research will be clarified in chapter four followed by the results in chapter five. The conclusions and recommendations will be presented in chapter six. 1.6 Conclusion After the age of 12, libraries see a downfall in membership numbers. This downfall continues until the age of 25. Several factors attribute to the decline in memberships. Most libraries charge a membership fee from the age of 18, youths spend their leisure time differently compared to 30 years ago and there is a mismatch in products and services offered and the demand by youngsters. The group of teenagers and young adults has appeared to be a very difficult age group to retain as library members. This study can be used by libraries to launch a concept which will appeal more to teenagers and young adults, based on both qualitative and quantitative research. Libraries are in desperate need of more strategic market research in order to turn the tide and prepare their organisation for the future. This research can serve as the foundation of the decision on the route to be taken in order to assure the future of libraries. If libraries fail to take decisive action now, their downfall will continue. Eventually this will lead to a marginal position for public libraries. The goal of this research is to answer the research questions and, eventually, the problem statement: What are the most important attributes libraries in the Netherlands can use to form a digital service in order to attract youths in the age group 12-25? 12

13 Chapter 2 Theoretical background In this chapter, a review of the literature will be presented in order to get a theoretical foundation for the decision process people undergo to decide to visit, and make use of, libraries. In order to answer the research questions, and ultimately the problem statement, it is essential to know why people make use of library services and why others choose not to. Hence, a model that depicts this choice process is required. A well founded model can help predict the future usage of library services. 2.1 A model for predicting library usage When analysing behaviour based on conscious decision making in the field of psychology, researchers often use Fishbein and Ajzen s Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) model. Walster (1994) states that the Fishbein and Ajzen model can be applied for understanding and predicting beliefs, attitudes, intentions and behaviours in the area of Library Information Services (LIS). Stalpers (2007) used the model for predicting reading behaviour. Bos (2009) concluded that the TPB could also be used on other groups of library users and non-users. Applications of the TPB increase the understanding of the structure of attitudes, and improve the prediction of social behaviour. The model allows researchers to choose the behaviour of interest and verify the connection between beliefs and behaviour. In their meta-analytic review Armitage and Conner (2001, p. 475) confirm that the Theory of Planned Behaviour is: a useful model for predicting a wide range of behaviours and behavioural intentions. The studies by Stalpers (2007) and Bos (2009) are particularly interesting, because they both use the Theory of Planned Behaviour in a library setting. Stalpers was able to explain 49.7 per cent of variance using the TPB model to predict reading behaviour. Bos was able to explain 26 per cent of the variance with his adjusted TPB model, predicting library lending. These previous studies have proven that the TPB is also suitable for our study. The TPB will be further clarified in the following section. 2.2 Theory of Planned Behaviour The original theory, called Theory of Reasoned Action, was posed by Fishbein and Ajzen (1975) to be able to understand and predict decision making. The theory can be used to study the relationship between beliefs, attitudes, behavioural intention and behaviour. The Theory of Reasoned Action states that: if people evaluate the suggested behaviour as positive (attitude), and if they think their significant others want them to portray the behaviour (social 13

14 influence), this results in a higher intention (motivation) and they are more likely to act accordingly. However, behavioural intention is not always the same as actual behaviour due to circumstantial limitations. The relationship between behavioural intention and actual behaviour is influenced by the capabilities of the individual and the available external possibilities to actually execute the intended behaviour. In other words, behavioural intention cannot be the sole determinant of behaviour where an individual s control over the behaviour is incomplete. With this in mind, Ajzen introduced the Theory of Planned Behaviour (Figure 2.2) in 1985 by adding a new component; Perceived Behavioural Control (PBC). By adding this element, he extended the Theory of Reasoned Action to cover voluntary behaviours for predicting behavioural intention and actual behaviour. Attitude Subjective Norm Intention Behaviour Perceived Behavioural Control Figure 2.2: Theory of Planned Behaviour model (Ajzen; 1985) Translated to a library setting this would mean that; whether or not people make use of library services (intention) can be explained by the attitude of the individual towards the library and its services (attitude), the opinion of family and friends and their attitude towards the library (social influence) and the individuals capabilities to make use of its services (behavioural control). The assessment by the individual whether or not he is able to execute his behavioural intention is highly important in this theory. This perceived behavioural control consists of both internal and external factors (Armitage & Conner 2001). In the studies by Stalpers (2007) and Bos (2009) PBC is explicitly split into internal and external components. The major difference in these two studies is the interpretation of the attitude construct. Stalpers uses attitude towards reading, where as Bos uses attitude towards the library. Bos matches the setup of this study best, because it goes beyond the reading of books. Therefore, the attitude towards libraries as posed by Bos will be used. The Theory of Planned Behaviour enables the mapping of all the relevant factors and subjecting these factors to research. In theory, all of the constructs together will determine actual behaviour, although 14

15 certain constructs can be more dominant than others. This means that it is also possible to find out to what extent a certain construct influences the displayed behaviour. These findings can be used as a basis to find out how future behaviour can be influenced. Direct and indirect experience both play a vital role in the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Indirect experience is based on the experience gained by others, which has reached the individual. This is specifically important when forming attitude. According to Bos (2009) attitude is formed through a feedback loop of experiences (emotions and knowledge) over a prolonged period. He furthermore states that in general, attitude has a stable character, but it can change. Changes in attitude can, for example, occur when an individual enters his next life stage. For youths, the move from high-school to university is a good example. In this new phase of life youths often move out of their parents house and into a new city. This often means new friends, new daily routines and new beliefs. If a shift in attitude occurs, behaviour displayed in the past will be a lesser predictor of future behaviour (Bamberg et al.; 2003). 2.3 Constructs In this paragraph the Theory of Planned Behaviour will be extended to a digital library setting. The previously identified constructs: Attitude, Social Influence, PBC and Usage Intention will be combined with the construct Library Stimuli that Bos has added to his model. Each construct will be clarified individually Library stimuli Whether or not people currently make use of the library heavily depends on the services and facilities the library offers at this point in time. According to Bos (2009), somewhere between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of all library visitors have difficulties finding the right book, have problems finding their way in the library or find the library catalogue not very user friendly. These problems can obstruct usage intention. The current presence or absence of certain stimuli also influences how newly launched products and service are received by the customer. For some customers it might be exactly what they were missing, while other customers might not see it as a significant improvement. In this study, both current library stimuli as well as future stimuli will be taken into account. 15

16 2.3.1 Attitude Attitude is the stable but changing determinant of behaviour based on emotions and knowledge. Attitude is formed by both direct experience (self) and indirect experience (gathered from others). Fishbein & Ajzen describe attitude as a learned predisposition to respond in a consistently favourable or unfavourable manner with respect to a given object. Attitudes cannot be observed directly, but have to be inferred from observed consistency in behaviour (Fishbein & Ajzen; 1975). In the study by Bos (2009), attitude towards book borrowing is influenced by both rational and emotional arguments. Emotional arguments are beliefs like: library books are filthy and I do not like the fixed lending period. The second group, rational arguments, are beliefs like: the library is too expensive or they never have a book I really like. Research by Stalpers (2007) has identified emotional arguments (reading pleasure) as an important determinant for predicting reading behaviour by youths. The attitude of an individual is prone to change. Through the process of socialisation individuals often copy attitudes from family and friends. This also holds true for other reference groups the individual identifies himself with. Through observation and imitation the individual copies attitude. How often and how easily attitude is copied depends heavily on individual capabilities like intelligence, character and social status. For example: if the individual really likes reading and is aware of the low-costs involved when borrowing a book from the library, but his social network holds a negative attitude towards the library, the individual s attitude towards the library is more likely to shift from positive to negative if he does not possess a strong character and has a lower social status. The attitude towards the library is influenced by positive and negative beliefs the individual holds towards the library and its services. The library is only one of the many distributors of books. For other services such as providing information about numerous topics, the library faces strong competition from Google and Wikipedia for example. Stalpers (2007) concluded that the characteristics of the library is also an important determinant whether customers keep their membership or not. The strengths and weaknesses of the library and its reflection on library image, will receive a lot of attention in this research Social influence Social influence is a combination of an individual s social values and the behaviour of others in his social environment. There are two different types of social influence. The first is injunctive social influence, 16

17 where it is important what others think about certain behaviour. In a meta analysis by Sheppard, Hartwick and Warshaw (1988) injunctive social influence turned out to be the least influential component in the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The second, descriptive social influence, checks if others display the same type of behaviour. It is expected that displayed behaviour by a person s direct social surrounding plays a major role in whether or not people decide to make use of library services. Especially family and close friends seem very influential. When both your family and friends make no use of the library or when they ventilate their negative beliefs it is likely that you adjust your behaviour accordingly Perceived Behavioural Control Internal capabilities of the individual Internal capabilities, or self efficacy, are the beliefs the individual holds towards being able to perform a certain task. In the library case this could be that the user cannot find the right book. A lack of willpower can cause the user not to put in the required effort. It is also possible that it is hard to find the right book due to a complicated search system used by the library but this is an example of an external capability. External capabilities of the individual There can be a difference in what people believe they are capable of, due to external factors, and what is actually possible. In the library setting people might want to borrow books from the library, but are unable to visit the library due to the travel distance or because of restricted opening times. These barriers can have a major influence on (intended) behaviour (Armitage & Conner; 2001). The external capabilities are a necessity for behaviour, but they are no guarantee for actual behaviour. In other words; an individual could live next to the library, which has matching opening hours and a great collection of books, but this does not guarantee that the individual will make use of the library s services Usage intention In this research study usage intention is the dependent variable. Usage Intention can be clarified with the use of the factors: context, time, object and reach (Bos; 2009). Context indicates the framework in which library usage takes place. In this case it is an indication of how often per year an individual lends products, or uses services, provided by the library. 17

18 Time indicates the point in time of the researched behaviour. In this research the past experience of users will largely determine the current attitude. The main focus in this research lies on the object. Object indicates the type of materials the consumer can lend from the library. Reach indicates the specific behaviour attitude influences. In this study attitude is twofold. The first is the attitude consumers hold towards the library. The second is the attitude consumers hold towards the offered products and services. The Theory of Planned Behaviour uses the independent variables Library Stimuli, Attitude, Social Influence and PBC to predict Usage Intention. This leads to the theoretic model displayed in figure which also answers TRQ1: What constructs, in which model, determine library usage?. Library Stimuli Attitude Towards Offered Services Intention For Library Usage Current Attitude Towards Library Social Influence Current Usage PBC Figure 2.3.6: Schematic representation explaining the usage intention of library services through the Theory of Planned Behaviour 2.4 Conclusion The studies by Stalpers (2007) and Bos (2009) have proven that the TPB model by Ajzen (1985) can be used to predict consumer behaviour in a library setting. Because the research design by Bos showed the most resemblance with the study at hand, it was chosen to use Bos model as the foundation for the research model of this study. Because this study also investigates the usage intention of hypothetical products and services the attributes Current Usage and Attitude Towards Offered Services have been added. 18

19 Chapter 3 Preliminary research The preliminary research of this study consists out of five user and five expert interviews. The interviews have been used to acknowledge information found during the desk research, but the interviews will also help to cover possible gaps in the literature. The data collected in the qualitative research serve as the building blocks for the quantitative part. With this in mind, both experts and users were interviewed. This chapter will explain why the chosen research method was used, who participated in the research and how the data has been collected. 3.1 Participants For our research either individual interviews or focus groups are the most appropriate. Interaction between respondents can stimulate them to express their thoughts. For this research a single two person user-interview was used to evoke this interaction. The reason not to use focus groups is that they are time consuming and costly to find the people to participate in the focus group. Other than that, the focus group might not be representative for the entire population (Burns & Bush; 2006). For this study, five expert- and five user-interviews were conducted. The experts were contacted because of their field of work. The user-interviews were held to get an impression of consumer desires, knowledge and library image. The characteristics of the experts can be found in table 3.1a and the characteristics of the users in table 3.1b on page 19. Table 3.1a Expert Characteristics Interview # Respondent Occupation Expertise 1 dr. Hans van Driel Associate professor at Tilburg University Communication science, media & digital culture 2 dr. Luc Röst Program employee for the "Sectorinstituut Openbare Bibliotheken" (SIOB) Current library development & statistical library data 3 Marjolein Oomes Research advisor for Cubiss Tilburg 4 Sylvia Goes- Neervoort High-school teacher in the Dutch language 5 Mariet Heuts Head Information and Advice at Bibliotheek Midden-Brabant Customer & employee satisfaction, need research and evaluation research Reading behaviour of high-school students Reading behaviour and current library projects 19

20 Table 3.1b User Characteristics Interview # Respondent Gender Age Occupation Place of residence 1 Anna Female 23 Student (WO) Tiburg 2 Jorieke Female 20 Student (MBO) Tilburg 3 Floor Female 19 Student (WO) Tilburg 4 Joost Male 25 Student (WO) Tilburg 4 Robin Male 25 Student (HBO) Tilburg 3.2 Procedure Both expert- and user-interviews consisted out of mainly broad, open-ended questions. According to Sekaran (2003), the best way to bring preliminary issues to the surface is to use unstructured interviews. Unstructured interviews are a good opportunity to adapt to changes in the situation. The questions were phrased as open as possible to trigger an elaborate response and to encourage the respondent to talk and share information. Face-to-face, standardised, open-ended interviews were conducted in order to find out how consumers think about the library and its services, what they believe can be improved and the reason for their displayed behaviour (user or non-user). In order to make sure that the required information was obtained during the interviews, some questions that could be used as a rough guideline have been constructed beforehand. For the user-interviews a single structure has been used. Each user-interview had to at least result in answers to the following questions: Why the interviewee does, or does not make use of the library; What associations the interviewee has with the library; What the interviewee thinks about a digital library; What the interviewee would change in a library. Because each expert has their own unique field of work, these interviews were designed specifically for each expert. 3.3 Results The interview texts have been analysed, and important and useful quotes were marked, to make it easier to link important statements. The transcripts of both the expert- and user-interviews can be found in Appendix V. 20

21 3.3.1 The right to exist As was already mentioned in paragraph 1.1, libraries in the Netherlands have designed their activities to fulfil five core tasks. The experts all agree that the libraries really need to check if these core tasks are still up to date. Libraries should adapt themselves to society and not the other way around. (Röst) The library should find new activities they are good at. (Van Driel) According to Goes, most youths only associate the library with books and simply do not care much about reading. Van Driel said that the libraries should try to get rid of their image as a literature temple. Drastic change is needed to make the library attractive again for the generations to come. Where previous generation still had to switch from offline to online media, the new fourteen year olds grew up using online media. Youths regard the internet as their main source of information. (Oomes) When the users were asked about the products offered by the public library, most users were only able to come up with books, DVD s and CD s. Some users also indicated that these products no longer interested them or that they would only use the library if it was free. I would rather borrow books from friends or simply buy them. (Anna) I think the library is an old-fashioned and out-dated institution. (Robin) If no membership fee was required I might make use of the library. (Robin) Convenience and ease of use Another respondent indicated that she usually just grabs a book out of her parents bookcase. The main reason for this is that it is easy. Oomes added that from a large user interview amongst youths ease of use was perceived as highly important. Grabbing a book of the shelf has the added benefit that you do not have to worry about returning the book within a couple of weeks. The limited lending period appeared to be problematic for several respondents: You can only borrow the books for three weeks and I usually need longer. (Anna) I often forgot to return the books on time. (Jorieke) Goes also acknowledged that youths feel de-motivated if they have to read under time pressure. She also said that making it easier for youths to acquire a book helps getting them to read more. 21

22 3.3.3 Right place, right time As was already illustrated in the problem background in chapter one, youths spend their leisure time very differently now than they did ten years ago. The experts claim that youths still read as much as they used to but the medium they use has changed to mainly internet. Missing the right opportunity to read, is a problem that was acknowledged in multiple ways: When I am on vacation I love to read, but normally I am too stressed to quietly read a book. I would rather watch television before I go to bed. (Jorieke) I already need to read a lot for my study so I prefer to spend my leisure time on something different than simply more reading. (Floor) Almost nobody was able to come up with truly negative connotations about libraries. Most people felt indifferent. Even when people held a positive attitude towards the library, it turned out not to be a guarantee for actual usage: I think it is a good thing that libraries are still around, I just do not use them. (Floor) Some respondents, who are keen readers, were well aware of the advantages the library has to offer but simply did not perceive the library as a part of their consideration set: I never really consider going to the library. (Anna) Digital products and services Heuts indicated that their library members are showing a permanent interest in the available ereaders. Most of the users spoke positive about the new digital possibilities like the ebook. They were especially positive if it was possible to download ebooks books over the internet. Heuts also spoke about current obstacles. Publishers have decided that libraries have to treat their ebooks like traditional paper books. This means that, if the library has one license for an ebook, they can only lend it out one volume at a time. Another current shortcoming is that the user has to pick up the ebook at the library itself. These limitations put forward by publishers make the ebook far less attractive than it could be. Most respondents indicated that ebooks are more interesting if they can be downloaded. Having to pick up a digital book in a library building does not make sense to them. A book that can be downloaded matches the respondents desire for convenient access and increased ease of use. Offering an ebook like a traditional paper book is a typical example of the imitation phase. Libraries do not need this copy of an existing product but a new market channel is needed to fully benefit from the 22

23 advantages of the ebook. Van Driel has written an article about this change process in technological innovation. Not all the respondents were positive about ebooks though. One respondent indicated that it would take away the pleasure of reading. Another respondent said that she would rather read from real paper. According to Röst, 46 per cent of all youths have never even heard of the ebook The future of libraries It was interesting to philosophise with the interviewees about the future of the book. Will the paper book ever entirely disappear? Not one single conclusion was reached. Some people believe that most paper print will disappear where others cannot imagine a world without paper books. The well filled bookcase will eventually disappear. (Van Driel) Van Driel also believes that information carriers, like mp3 players or laptops, will disappear. Information will be directly streamed from a cloud network. Van Driel - a university professor who is active on Twitter - is very font of technological innovation so his vision of the future will be somewhat different to that of the old-fashioned librarian. 3.4 Conclusion From the expert and user-interviews several recurring topics were filtered, which seem to be important determinants of digital library usage: Convenience and ease of use; How are the products acquired and can customers find the right product? New digital products; Does the library offer new products like ebooks and Mediadossiers? Lending period; For what period can products be loaned and is this period perceived as sufficient? Price; Do youths only make use of the library when it is free? The identified topics will be used in paragraph for creating the hypothetical libraries in the conjoint analysis. 23

24 Chapter 4 Quantitative Research After having completed the preliminary research, the main questionnaire was created and conducted. In this chapter the characteristics of the participants, the procedure and the material used in this experiment will be explained and justified. First, all the steps taken in conducting the questionnaire will be discussed in the paragraph Procedure. In the paragraph Participants the sampling strategy and the sample characteristics will be discussed. Finally, the Material paragraph will explain the chosen questions and the related scales. 4.1 Procedure One of the biggest challenges in creating the questionnaire was the large diversity in both age (12 up to 25) and education level (VMBO up to university levels) of the respondents. It was necessary that the 12 year old VMBO student could complete the questionnaire without difficulties, but the questionnaire should also be applicable to the 25 year old university student. This goal was achieved by using clear and easy to understand instructions, and some extra verbal instructions for the lower educated or young respondents. The questionnaire itself was accompanied by a cover letter introducing the researcher and the reason for the research study. The cover letter can be found in Appendix VI. Before conducting the questionnaire in the high-school classrooms, a short personal introduction was given to introduce the researcher and the reason for the research study. This short speech covered the most important aspects of the cover letter. It was stressed that the participants should read the instructions carefully. If something remained unclear they could ask the researcher for extra instructions. The respondents from the universities were able to complete the questionnaire without further verbal instructions. It was expected that most respondents would be new to conjoint testing. Therefore, the cover letter was followed by some very clear instructions about the meaning of each factor and how the participant should rate the product packages. The reason why a conjoint analysis was used will be justified in the following paragraph. Besides taking care that all the respondents are able to understand the questionnaire, the survey should not be too lengthy; otherwise attrition would become a serious threat to internal validity. Participants may not complete surveys because they get bored with participating; especially youths tend to have a short attention span. From the pilot test we learned that the average respondent could easily finish the questionnaire within ten minutes. In practice, this turned out to be about the same. The highly educated 24

25 were slightly faster in completing the questionnaire. This is probably due to their familiarity with questionnaires. 4.2 Material The questionnaire consisted out of several question types. Some simply gathered background information like age, education and sex whilst other questions jointly questioned a single topic, e.g. Social Influence. This paragraph will explain how the three composed variables (Current Attitude Towards Libraries, Social Influence and Perceived Behavioural Control) were questioned. Furthermore, the conjoint design and the conjoint variables Grade and Usage Intention will be clarified. For each variable the chosen scale and question format is presented Theory of Planned Behaviour variables A) Current Attitude Towards Libraries The participants answered eight attitude questions. They were asked to do indicate on a Likert scale what their opinion was on two extreme and opposing statements. Dawes (2008) found that five-point and seven-point Likert scales produce the same mean scores once they are rescaled. The ten-point format tends to result in slightly lower relative means. As a result, the five-point Likert scale was chosen because it does not overwhelm the respondent with possibilities and, because it is uneven, it allows for a neutral answer (Miller; 1994). The five-point Likert scale will be used for multiple questions for these same reasons. The left column holds negative connotations where the right column holds positive connotations as displayed in figure 4.2.1a. Old-fashioned O O O O O Modern Boring O O O O O Colourful Unuseful O O O O O Useful Figure 4.2.1a: Example of attitude questions Factor analysis has been used to check if the response to the eight statements can be combined into one Attitude variable (Appendix VII). Pallant (2007) summarized that factor analysis attempts to identify a small set of factors that represents the underlying relationships among a group of related variables. Before factor analysis can be applied several checks are needed to see if all the criteria are met. The sample size should be larger than 150 and there should be a ratio of at least five cases for each of the variables (Pallant; 2007). As the sample consists out of 306 respondents, both sample size criteria are met. Next, the correlation matrix was checked to find out if the Current Attitude questions show any 25

26 correlation at all. From the correlation matrix it was concluded that several variables show good correlations >.3 which are also significant at the.01 level. As all of the criteria are met, factor analysis can be applied. From the factor analysis results it can be concluded that a combination of two factors explains per cent of the variance. In social sciences, 50 per cent of explained variance is regarded as substantial (Bos; 2009). The rotated component matrix showed that two groups were created but multiple questions load on both components. The Cronbach s alpha from the component: Fun, Modern, Useful and Cosiness showed an excellent Cronbach s alpha of.80, but the second component: Cheap, Fresh and Easy showed a weak Cronbach s alpha of.36; which is far below the required minimum of.6. Because the second component was weak, the Cronbach s alpha for one single component was checked. The Cronbach s alpha of all eight questions in one component was.76. Therefore, it was decided to create one Current Attitude variable. This was achieved by taking the average of the eight attitude questions. B) Social Influence Bos (2009) divided the social groups into most people in my near surrounding and my partner or best friend. Because the population under investigation is highly diverse, with age ranging from 12 up to 25 and education ranging from VMBO up to University levels, some adjustments were made to make the question suitable to all participants. For the lower educated, most people in my near surrounding was believed to be too vague and my partner or best friend might seem awkward to a 12 year old. Therefore it was decided to create a new division; family and friends. With three questions per social group, the participants were asked to indicate on a five-point Likert scale what their opinion was on two extreme and opposing statements. An example of the social influence questions can be found in figure 4.2.1b. My friends: Never use the library O O O O O Often use the library Are no member of the library O O O O O Are all library members Find the library dull and unattractive O O O O O Find the library interesting and attractive Figure 4.2.1b: Example of social influence questions Once more, the statistical assumptions were checked to find out if the Social Influence questions can be combined into one variable. The complete results of the factor analysis for Social Influence can be found in Appendix VIII. From the correlation matrix it can be concluded that several variables show 26

27 correlations >.3 which are also significant at the.01 level. The factor analysis shows that a combination of two factors explains per cent of the variance. The rotated component matrix also clearly defined two separate factors. One consisted of the behaviour of friends and component two consisted of the behaviour of family. This division has also been used in the Cronbach s alpha analysis to check whether or not the used scale is reliable and also to check if there is sufficient internal consistency in each factor. Cronbach s alpha turned out to be.70 for friends and.78 for family. The closer the alpha is to 1 the more reliable the scale;.6 being the minimum. Hence, combining the family questions and combining the friend questions results in a reliable scale. By taking the average values for the respective variables, a construct InfuenceFamily and a construct InfluenceFriends was created for further analysis. Whether or not parents frequently took their children to the library when they were young, does not seem to influence lending behaviour or the attitude towards lending from the library, but it does influence reading behaviour and the internal skills of the individual (Bos; 2009). To check if events that occurred in one s youth influences the attitude towards the current library, or the attitude towards the digital library, two yes or no questions were asked: When I was a child my parents or other family members took me to the library every month: O Yes O No Friends or other family members sometimes bring me books from the library: O Yes O No C) Perceived Behavioural Control (PBC) In our research the participants were asked to what extent they agreed with nine statement. A fivepoint Likert scale (totally disagree, disagree, don t know, agree, totally agree) was used for answering statements like: In general, good information is easy to find; I can usually easily find information on the internet; It is easy for me, considering travel distance and transportation possibilities, to visit the library; I could easily explain somebody else how to find something in the library. First, the correlation matrix was checked for significant correlations. Several items show a correlation >.3 which are significant at the.01 level. What also can be concluded from the correlation matrix is that 27

28 the item ReadingAdvice is not correlated to any of the other items. This could prove problematic when factor analysis is applied. Factor analysis showed that a combination of three factors explains per cent of the variance (Appendix IX). Not all items load exclusively on one component. Once again, ReadingAdvice proved to be unrelated to all the other items and ended up in a third component. The Cronbach s alpha for the first two individual components was compared with the Cronbach s alpha if a single component is used. The Cronbach s alpha of the individual turned out to be.64 for the first component and.49 for the second one. The Cronbach s alpha for all factors in a single component was.64, and increased to.68 if ReadingAdvice was left out. As a result, it was decided to exclude ReadingAdvice and to create a new variable PBC consisting out of the average of all other items Conjoint analysis variables D) Attitude Towards Offered Services To find out what the respondents opinion is about the offered services, a conjoint analysis was used. Conjoint analysis is a research technique used to estimate, or determine, how respondents develop preferences for products or services, and to measure the trade-offs people make when making a decision. Conjoint analysis is the best way to research the importance of individual product attributes, because the respondent does not need to rank individual product attributes, but only the entire package. Thus the respondent is asked to perform a realistic task, which they perform on a daily basis (Hair et al.; 2006). Conjoint analysis is often used to gain insights in the decision making process or evaluations by consumers. Because a conjoint analysis uses an indirect way of questioning product preferences it holds the following main advantages over a direct questionnaire: Respondents are less likely to indicate that all attributes are equally important. The respondent grades the entire package and not a single attribute; Conjoint analysis decreases the odds for socially desirable answers. Once more, this is due to the fact that consumers grade the entire package and not a single attribute; Conjoint analysis is more realistic. In real life consumers also make judgments on the entire package and not a on a single attribute. In a conjoint analysis the attributes are called factors. The conjoint factors will be composed out of the determinants of digital library usage, which were identified in the conclusion of chapter three. Each factor has multiple levels; in our research six factors are used with two levels each (table 4.2.2a page 28). All of the attributes have two levels, because if there are attributes with more than two levels the 28

29 respondents tend to focus more on that attribute, increasing its importance in determining overall preference. This effect is also known as the number of levels effect (Green & Srinivasan; 1990). Table 4.2.2a Conjoint Factors Factor Explanation Level 1 Level 2 1. ebooks Does the library offer ebooks Yes No 2. Media dossiers Does the library offer media dossiers Yes No 3. Mode of acquisition Everything through the internet How are the products or services acquired you lend or want to make use of For most products and services you have to go to the library building 4. Recommendations Does the website offer personal Reading advice No reading advice advice on what materials you might also find interesting 5. Lending period How long can materials be loaned 3 weeks 6 weeks 6. Price What is the annual fee of the library membership Free membership 30 Euros per year After having established all the factors and levels, a presentation method needed to be selected. According to Hair et al. (2006, page 493) the full-profile method is the most popular presentation method, because of its perceived realism and its ability to reduce the number of comparisons through the use of fractional factorial designs. The full-profile method measures overall preference judgment directly using behaviourally oriented constructs such as intention to buy or likelihood for trial (Green & Srinivasan; 1990). According to Green (1984), the full-profile method works very well when six or fewer attributes are used. Presenting more attributes will quickly lead to information overload amongst respondents who will resort in simplifying tactics e.g.: respondents will focus on one or two attributes only. Because our conjoint study consists out of exactly six attributes, the full-profile method was selected. The statistical program SPSS was used to design a full-profile conjoint plan. The minimum number of stimuli equals: Total number of levels across all factors - number of factors + 1 = = 7 The final conjoint plan consisted out of eight unique combinations, called treatments or a stimuli (Hair et al.;2006). An example of a single treatment can be seen in table 4.2.2b on page 29. Each treatment can be seen as one hypothetical, future library. 29

30 Table 4.2.2b Single Conjoint Treatment ebooks Media dossiers Mode of acquisition Recommendations Lending period Price Library DOES Library DOES For most products and NO Reading advice Products can be Free offer ebooks offer Media services you have to go to loaned for 6 membership dossiers the library building weeks The participant was asked to give the future library a grade on a 1-10 scale. Furthermore, the participant was asked whether or not he would actually make use of this library on a five-point Likert scale (1- definitely not, 5-definitely will). The scale Grade had a Cronbach s alpha of.69 and the scale Usage Intention had a Cronbach s alpha of.75. Because both alpha s exceed the required minimum of.6, it can be concluded that the scales are reliable. The questionnaire consisted out of questions about future libraries and the current library. The order of the questions could influence the participant s response. If the participant has first indicated to be really negative about the current library, the participant may automatically be more negative towards the future libraries. To check if there actually was an order effect, participants have been asked to give their opinion on the future libraries first, before answering questions about current libraries in 90 per cent of all cases. The remaining 10 per cent of the respondents served as a check to find out whether or not the question order made a significant difference. The results of this check will be presented in chapter five. 4.3 Participants To gather the statistics needed to answer the research questions, a paper questionnaire has been conducted. The reason for using a, rather old-fashioned, paper questionnaire is that its digital counterpart is often affected by a low response rate and a response bias. The respondents of a digital questionnaire are most often highly educated and have an increased interested in the topic, which will lead to biased results (Verschuren; 2008). The target group of this study are teenagers and young adults between the age of 12 and 25. The highly educated tend to read more and library users have, on average, followed a higher education (Huysmans & Hillebrink, 2008). To ensure that all levels of education would be represented in this research, quota sampling was used to segment the population into mutually exclusive sub-groups. Our population was segmented on the basis of education. With this in mind, the questionnaire was conducted at several locations, which can be found in table 4.3 on page 30. Table 4.3 is a summary of where the specific levels of education were surveyed. 30

31 Table 4.3 Education levels per location Raayland Elzendaal ROC Tilburg University VMBO: IC IC HAVO: IC IC VWO: IC IC MBO 1-2: IC MBO 3-4: IC HBO: O WO: O The Raayland College in Venray, the Elzendaal College in Boxmeer and the ROC Kasteeldreef in Tilburg were kind enough to allow us to conduct questionnaires in class (IC), hereby drastically increasing the response rate amongst an otherwise difficult to reach audience. The respondents with a higher level of education, HBO and WO, were mostly questioned at the Tilburg University library (O). In order to draw conclusions about members versus non-members, both groups should be sufficiently represented in the sample. The public library in Tilburg has been so kind to allow us to conduct questionnaires in their libraries. This will increase the number of members in the sample. Finally, the questionnaire was also conducted at a local sports club. Both, the sports club and the library, turned out to be a good location for gathering respondents from all levels of education. In total, 306 people successfully completed the questionnaire. From the graph in figure 4.3 it can be concluded that the sample has an overrepresentation of HAVO and VWO respondents and an underrepresentation of MBO and HBO respondents. 40,00% 35,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% VMBO HAVO VWO MBO HBO WO Graduates 2005/2006 Graduates 2006/2007 Graduates 2007/2008 Graduates 2008/2009* Sample * Tentative figure Figure 4.3: Normal distribution education VS sample 1 1 Sources: VMBO/HAVO/VWO: MBO: MBO raad - P. Veelenturf 31 HBO: WO:

32 To check if this distribution would pose a problem, the mean scores for each education level were compared in a one-way Anova. The MBO 1-2 score (M=6,92, SD= 0,64) for Grade differed significantly from the WO score (F(6, 299)=2.79, p<.05). For Usage Intention the MBO 1-2 score (M=3,31, SD= 0,23) differed significantly from the scores of MBO 3-4, HBO and WO (F(6, 299)=1.37, p <.05). The one-way Anova also created a table with the mean scores (Appendix X). It can be concluded that, for this sample, education level appears to be a poor predictor of both Grade and Usage Intention. For research purposes having some form of homogeneous groups will help to generalise the results. Cluster analysis attempts to create groups of homogeneous individuals (Hair, Black, Babin, Anderson & Tatham; 2006). With the use of cluster analysis it was checked if the sample could be broken down into meaningful clusters on the basis of visit frequency. The Ward s method was used to make clusters in visit frequency to minimise the within cluster variation. From the data in table 4.3a it was concluded that three clusters could be identified. Table 4.3a Respondents clustered on Visit Frequency per year Visit frequency C1 C2 C3 Never up to up to up to More than Cluster one represents the group of non-users, cluster two can be viewed as the group with light users and cluster three is the group with heavy users. This same division in clusters was also used to compose table 4.3b on page 32 with the characteristics of respondents. 32

33 Table 4.3b Characteristics of Respondents Nonuser Light user Heavy user Total N= Gender Male #: 66,18% 48,97% 27,27% 49,67% Female #: 33,82% 51,03% 72,73% 50,33% Age (mean) Education VMBO: 7,81% 73,44% 18,75% 20,92% HAVO: 16,00% 61,33% 22,67% 24,51% VWO: 30,23% 59,30% 10,47% 28,10% MBO 1-2: 18,18% 72,73% 9,09% 3,59% MBO 3-4: 31,03% 65,52% 3,45% 9,48% HBO: 57,14% 35,71% 7,14% 4,58% WO: 22,22% 66,67% 11,11% 8,82% Member Yes: 26,47% 73,71% 95,45% 66,34% No: 73,53% 26,29% 4,55% 33,66% According to the CBS, in January 2010 the Dutch population consisted out of 49.5 per cent males and 50.5 per cent females. Table 4.3b thus shows that the sample holds a near perfect division of males and females. Clearly, females are the more frequent users of the library. The cluster with heavy users consists for per cent out of females. The decreasing mean age per user group matches the decline in memberships after the age of 12, as mentioned in chapter 1. The chance that a respondent is a library member increases when the respondent is a more frequent user. For instance, of the 44 heavy users per cent is a library member. All of the previous is intuitively correct. However, table 4.1b also shows that per cent of all VWO students is a non-user. This is almost twice as high as the percentage of non-users amongst HAVO respondents and more than four times higher than the VMBO percentage. This contradicts the claims by Huysmans & Hillebrink (2008) that the highly educated tend to read more and that library users have, on average, followed a higher education. A possible explanation for this counterintuitive result could be that the VWO respondents were more realistic in indicating their visit frequency Pilot test To avoid any misconception amongst participants filling out the questionnaire, the questionnaire was pilot tested (De Vaus; 2005). A pilot test examines whether the questionnaire provides the required information or not, and moreover, whether the questionnaire is clear and straightforward for 33

34 respondents. The pilot test was carried out amongst several students and one high-school teacher. With their feedback, some adjustments were made to the questionnaire. The questions about typical library users were removed as they are beyond the boundaries of this thesis. Furthermore, the option Don t know was added as a response to the question Are any of your family members a library member?. The layout of the questionnaire was adjusted several times. At first, the test respondents had some difficulties keeping the eight conjoint libraries apart so the positioning on the page was altered. Later the grading and usage intention boxes were accompanied by the relevant question. Question mark boxes were added to make it clearer where input by the respondent was required. Finally, the public library in Tilburg advised to raise the price of the library membership in the conjoint analysis from 25 Euros to 30 Euros, as this figure is more realistic. The final questionnaires with the normal question order can be found in Appendix XI and the questionnaire with the adjusted question order can be found in Appendix XII. 4.4 Conclusion The paragraph Material explained which questions made it to the final questionnaire and why they were asked. The eight questions for Current Attitude Towards Libraries have been combined into one variable Current Attitude. Factor analysis provided evidence that the Social Influence questions can be divided into friends and family. The newly composed variables InfluenceFriends and InfluenceFamily turned out to be a reliable scale. While investigating the PBC variables, it turned out that the question about reading advice was unrelated to the other PBC questions. Furthermore, the composed PBC variable turned out to be a more reliable scale when the reading advice question was removed. A quick overview of all the Cronbach s alpha values presented in this chapter can be found in table 4.4 on page

35 Table 4.4 Overview trustworthiness scales Variable Cronbach's Alpha Attitude 0,76 Influence Friends 0,70 Influence Family 0,78 PBC 0,68 Grade 0,69 Usage 0,75 The questionnaire was conducted at several high-schools and universities. In total 306 participants successfully completed the questionnaire. The sample showed an overrepresentation of HAVO and VWO students and an underrepresentation of MBO and HBO students. With the use of cluster analysis the 306 respondents were divided into three user-groups; non-users, light users and heavy users. The pilot test of the questionnaire resulted in some slight changes, mainly to the lay-out of the questionnaire. 35

36 Chapter 5 Results Chapter five contains the quantitative results of this research. The division of the questionnaire, future libraries (conjoint analysis) and the current library (TPB variables), will also be maintained in this chapter. 5.1 Preparation In chapter four the possibility for an order effect was discussed. Before further data analysis is performed, the responses of the two response groups will be compared. The results are presented in table 5.1. Table 5.1 Mean scores by question order Order N% Mean SD AvgGrade Normal 89,87 6,50 0,71 Reverse 10,13 6,54 0,85 AvgAttitude Normal 89,87 3,02 0,51 Reverse 10,13 3,04 0,66 An independent-samples T test showed that the means of the two groups did not significantly differ from one another. In other words; the T test proved that there is no order effect. Therefore, the data from the respondents was merged. 5.2 Theory of Planned Behaviour and the library The average TPB scores, displayed in table 5.2, give a quick indication of the present state of the library. In the scale column 1 is the low- and 5 is the high-end of the scale. From table 5.2 it can be concluded that the present attitude towards the library is just above average. Table 5.2 Average TPB scores Variable Average score SD Scale Attitude 3,27 0, Influence Friends 2,57 0, Influence Family 3,23 1, PBC 3,58 0, Furthermore, it can be concluded that family members have a more positive influence than friends. The Theory of Planned Behaviour represents the bottom half of the schematic framework as depicted in figure A regression analysis has been performed to find out how well the independent variables 36

37 Current Attitude Towards Libraries, Social Influence and Perceived Behavioural Control are able to predict the dependent variable Current Usage TPB Regression Assumptions To get an impression how our variables are related, linear regression is used to check the influence of Attitude, Influence Friends, Influence Family and PBC on Visit Frequency. Before actually performing the regression, several assumptions to find out if regression analysis can be performed were checked. The SPSS output with the assumptions check can be found in Appendix XIII. The checks for multicollinearity, outliers, normality, and the independence of the residuals all turned out to be fine. The independent variables all have a correlation >.3 (p<.01) with the dependent variable Visit Frequency. The correlation between each of the independent variables is well below the problematic.7 so bivariate correlation is not an issue (Pallant; 2007). From the collinearity diagnostics it could be concluded that our VIF levels are well below 3, so collineratity is also not an issue. The graphs in Appendix XIII show good linearity and a normal distribution TPB regression In table the results from the initial regression analysis for TPB are presented. Attitude: Social Influence: Table TPB 1 linear Regression (Attitude, Social Influence, PBC) Independent Variable Beta 2 t-value p-value Current Attitude Towards Library 0,27 4,58 < 0,01 -Influence Friends 0,21 3,86 < 0,01 -Influence Family 0,20 3,76 < 0,01 PBC: Perceived Behavioural Control 0,09 1,75 n.s. 1 : Dependent variable: Visit Frequency; R square= : Standardised Coefficient From these results we concluded that the Current Attitude Towards Libraries makes a statistically significant unique contribution to the equation (p<.01). The p value indicates with which level of confidence one can state that the independent variable has an effect on the dependent variable. With a Beta of 0.27, the Current Attitude Towards Libraries makes the strongest unique contribution to explaining Visit Frequency. Social Influence of Friends and the Social Influence of Family also proved to be significant (p<.01). The Influence of Friends turned out to have a slightly larger impact on Visit Frequency than the Influence of Family. 37

38 The model, as a whole, has an adjusted R square of 0.35; meaning that the combination of the independent variables explain 35 per cent of the variance in Visit Frequency. The variable PBC, the only none significant variable, turned out to be a poor estimator of Visit Frequency. The complete output can be found in Appendix XIV. 5.3 Conjoint analysis The average library scores, presented in table 5.3, give an indication of the attractiveness of each future library. The average overall scores can be viewed as the overall Attitude Towards the Offered Services (6.50) and the overall Intention for Library Usage (3.01); both only apply for the conjoint (future) situation. Unlike the other variables, Grade is based on a 1-10 scale. The column Positives states the number of positive attributes each of the libraries contained. The perfect library would contain six positives and the worst library would contain zero. Hence, more positives should yield a higher average grade and higher average usage. Table 5.3 shows that this is indeed the case Grading future libraries Library # Table 5.3 Average Library scores Grade Usage Positives Library1 6,91 3,09 3 Library2 5,95 2,59 2 Library3 5,25 2,27 2 Library4 7,64 3,78 4 Library5 5,10 2,31 1 Library6 7,92 3,95 5 Library7 6,05 2,68 3 Library8 7,18 3,54 4 Average 6,5 3,03 To check how well the conjoint model matches our actual grading scores we have calculated the average correlation between the observed grades and the conjoint (estimated) grades. The correlations can be found in table Table Correlations Actual Grade VS Conjoint Grade Value Sig. Pearson's R 1 0,00 Calculated R 0,97 0,00 Calculated R2 0,94 0,00 38

39 One of the key statistics of conjoint analysis, are the importance values. The higher the importance value, the more important that factor is on overall preference. When asked to grade a library on its factors, the two new products Mediadossiers (score 22.77) and ebooks (score 18.27) turn to be very important together with Price (score 19.2). Of all the factors researched, LendingPeriod (score 12.27) turned out to be the least important. The relative importance of the attributes can be viewed in figure The entire table with importance scores for Grading can be found in Appendix XV. Figure 5.3.1: Importance summary Grading The question PRQ1: Will new digital library services increase the attractiveness of libraries for youths? was answered on the basis of the results of this conjoint study. The researched conjoint attributes all have a positive and significant impact on the person s linking of the library. In paragraph 5.3 it was already shown that the number of positives influences liking. Hence it can be concluded that the offered new services indeed increase the attractiveness for teenagers and young adults Usage Intention of future libraries To check how well the conjoint model matches our actual usage scores we have calculated the average correlation between the observed usage and the conjoint (estimated) usage. The correlations can be found in table on page

40 Table Correlations Actual Usage VS Conjoint Usage Value Sig. Pearson's R 1 0,00 Calculated R 0,97 0,00 Calculated R2 0,94 0,00 Respondents gave different importance ratings when it came to usage intention. Suddenly, Price (score 24.02) became the most important factor, followed by the two new products Mediadossiers (score 19.87) and ebooks (score 17.05). This shift in importance depicts the difference between an individual s liking of the package and actually making use of the package. The price of the package is, apparently, less important when indicating package liking. Once more, of all the factors under investigation, LendingPeriod (score 12.02) turned out to be the least important. The relative importance of the attributes can be viewed in figure The entire table with importance scores for Usage Intention can be found in Appendix XV. Figure 5.3.2: Importance summary Usage Intention 5.4 Predicting Usage intention In chapter two Usage Intention was identified as the dependent variable of the model. In paragraph 5.4 all the possible direct and indirect effects from the independent variables on Usage Intention will be checked. 40

41 5.4.1 TPB predicting Usage Intention In paragraph a regression analysis was performed to check the relationship between the TPB variables and Current Usage. In this paragraph, regression analysis will be performed to check if the four TPB variables also have a direct effect on Usage Intention. Before actually performing the regression, several assumptions were checked to find out if regression analysis can be performed. No assumption violations were found. The SPSS output with the assumptions check data can be found in Appendix XVI. With the use of regression analysis, the relationship between the independent TPB variables (Attitude, Influence Friends, Influence Family, PBC) and the dependent variable Usage Intention (Average Usage) has been investigated. In table you can find the results from the regression analysis. The entire output can be found in Appendix XVII. Attitude: Table Usage Intention 1 linear Regression (TPB) Independent Variable Beta 2 t-value p-value Current Attitude Towards Library 0,21 2,92 < 0,05 Social Influence: -Influence Friends 0,08 1,23 n.s. -Influence Family 0,07 1,06 n.s. PBC: PBC 0,07 1,10 n.s. 1 : Dependent variable: Average Usage Intention; R square= : Standardised Coefficient From these results it can be concluded that Current Attitude is the only variable that makes a statistically significant unique contribution to the equation (p<.05), with a Beta of The model, as a whole, has an adjusted R square of 0.10; meaning that the combination of the independent variables explains 10 per cent of the variance in Usage Intention TPB & Current Usage predicting Usage Intention Where paragraph looked at the relationship between the TPB variables and Usage Intention, this paragraph will check this same relationship, but with Current Usage as an added independent variable. In other words, it will be checked if a combination of the TPB variables & Current Usage has a direct effect on Usage Intention. 41

42 Before performing the regression, several assumptions were checked to find out if regression analysis can be performed. No assumption violations were found. The SPSS output with the assumptions check data can be found in Appendix XVIII. With the use of regression analysis, the relationship between the independent variables TPB and Current Usage and the dependent variable Usage Intention has been investigated. In table you can find the results from the regression analysis. Appendix XIX. Table Usage Intention 1 linear Regression (TPB, Current Usage) Independent Variable Beta 2 t-value p-value Attitude: Current Attitude Towards Library 0,15 2,14 < 0,05 Social Influence: -Influence Friends 0,04 0,60 n.s. -Influence Family 0,03 0,46 n.s. PBC: PBC 0,03 0,82 n.s. Visit Frequency: Current Usage 0,19 2,81 < 0,01 1 : Dependent variable: Average Usage Intention; R square= : Standardised Coefficient From these results it can be concluded that Current Attitude (p<.05) and Current Usage (p<.01) both make a statistically significant unique contribution to the equation. With a Beta of 0.19, Current Usage makes the strongest unique contribution to explaining Usage Intention. The model explains 13 per cent of the variance in Usage Intention Current Usage & Attitude Towards Offered Services predicting Usage Intention The conjoint analysis showed that there is a difference between the respondent s liking of the library and the actual usage intention. With the use of regression analysis, the relationship between Attitude Towards the Offered Service (Average Grade) and Current Usage (Visit Frequency) with the dependent variable Usage Intention (Average Usage) has been investigated. Before performing the regression, several assumptions were checked to find out if regression analysis can be performed. No assumption violations were found. The SPSS output with the assumptions check data can be found in Appendix XX. With the use of regression analysis, the relationship between the independent variables Attitude Towards Offered Services and Current Usage and the dependent variable Usage Intention has been 42

43 investigated. In table you can find the results from the regression analysis. The entire SPSS output can be found in Appendix XXI. Table Usage Intention 1 linear Regression (Average Grade, Visit Frequency) Variable Beta 2 t-value p-value AvgGrade: Attitude Towards Offered Services 0,55 12,10 < 0,01 VisitFreq: Current Usage 0,24 5,39 < 0,01 1 : Dependent variable: Average Usage Intention; R square= : Standardised Coefficient From these results it can be concluded that the Attitude Towards Offered Services and Current Usage both make a statistically significant unique contribution to the equation (p<.01). With a Beta of 0.55, the Attitude Towards Offered Services makes the strongest unique contribution to explaining Usage Intention. The model explains 39 per cent of the variance in Usage Intention. With this information the question PRQ3: What constructs determine future library usage? can be answered. According to the regression analysis the combination of an individual s current usage and their attitude towards the offered services can partially predict a person s intention to use the future library. 5.5 Investigating User Groups Thus far chapter 5 has focussed on the entire sample. In this paragraph the clusters identified in paragraph 4.3b will be further investigated. With the use of a one-way Analysis of Variance (Anova), it was checked if the mean scores of the three user groups significantly differed from one another. The mean scores for Average Grade and Average Usage Intention can be found in table Cluster Table 5.5 Mean scores Grade & Usage Intention Grade SD Usage SD Non-users 6,31 0,72 2,79 0,57 Light users 6,54 0,68 3,05 0,47 Heavy users 6,61 0,86 3,27 0,57 43

44 The SPSS output of the Anova can be found in Appendix XXII. The Levene s test for homogeneity of variances did not prove to be significant for Grade or Usage Intention. This means that the variances of the two groups do not significantly differ from one another. The Anova table showed that the user group mean scores for both Grade and Usage Intention were significantly different. However, these results do not indicate where these differences occurred. Because the variance was proved to be homogeneous earlier, the post-hoc Tukey test is used to identify where the differences occurred. For Grade it can be concluded that there is a significant difference in mean scores for non-users and light users (F(2, 303)=1.74, p<.05). For Usage Intention, all the user groups showed significant differences in mean usage scores (F(2,303)=3.320, p<.01). To find out if the differences in means could be attributed to specific library attributes, a one-way Anova was performed on the six library attributes. The Anova showed no evidence that the mean attribute scores for Grade and Usage scores differed significantly per user group. The Anova tables can be found in Appendix XXIII. 5.6 Simulations Because the Anova was unable to identify which attributes caused the differences in means, simulation profiles were created. With the use of simulation profiles the utility scores for every possible combination of library attributes can be computed. By focussing on specific attributes, differences in means may yet be explained. First, the effect of offering ebooks digitally or not will be investigated followed by the effect of price. The simulated libraries used the base values presented in table 5.6. Table 5.6 Simulation Base Values ebooks Media dossiers Mode of acquisition Recommendations Lending period Price Library DOES Library DOES Everything can be Reading advice is Products can be Free offer ebooks offer Media acquired over internet offered loaned for 6 membership dossiers weeks Offering ebooks digitally or not In chapter three it was indicated that, initially, customers will have to pick up their ebook at the library just like a regular book. For this scenario two simulated libraries were created. The two libraries only differed in the mode of acquisition. The first library offered ebooks digitally, and the second library 44

45 required the customer to pick up the ebook in the library itself. The mean scores per cluster for both libraries can be found in table 5.6.1a. Table 5.6.1a Mean Scores Simulated ebook Library Cluster Grade SD Usage SD Library1 Non-users 8,77 1,17 4,22 0,87 Light users 8,79 1,18 4,48 0,81 Heavy users 9,00 1,11 4,77 0,77 Library2 Non-users 8,02 1,30 3,72 0,90 Light users 8,19 1,18 4,13 0,77 Heavy users 8,42 1,14 4,49 0,78 The table shows that the average grade and the average usage intention are higher for the library which offers its products digitally. The results from this simulation have been compared in a paired samples T test. The T test provided evidence that these differences are indeed significant (p<.01). The results from the T test can be found in Appendix XXIV. To find out the effect that offering products digitally has, the percentage of respondents who were very positive (grade >8) and were very likely to use the library (usage >4) have been calculated for both simulated libraries. These scores, and the changes in both grade and usage intention, can be found in table 5.1.6b. Table 5.6.1b % Change in Grade (>8) & Usage (>4) ebook Library Cluster Grade Usage Grade Usage Grade Usage Non-users 76,5 60, ,3 26,5 25 Light users 76,5 77,3 57,2 62,4 19,3 14,9 Heavy users 77,3 84,1 68,2 63,6 9,1 20,5 Table 5.6.1b shows that over 75 per cent of all users grade library 1 an 8 or higher. Non-users are 25 per cent more likely to use the library that offers ebooks digitally, compared to the library that requires them to pick up the ebook at the library itself. Furthermore, 26.5 per cent more non-users can be regarded as being very positive about the library (grade >8) if the ebook is offered digitally. The groups with light users and heavy users also show a substantial increase in both grade and usage intention. It can be concluded that offering an ebook digitally or not, makes a significant difference The effect of Price For this scenario two simulated libraries were created, using the same attributes as in paragraph 5.3. The two libraries only differed in their membership fee. The first library offered a free membership, and 45

46 the second library had an annual membership fee of 30 Euros. Because most libraries do not charge a membership fee to people under the age of 18, only the scores for people over the age of 18 have been included. The mean scores per cluster for both libraries can be found in table 5.6.2a. Table 5.6.2a Mean Scores Simulated Price Library (Age>18) Cluster Grade SD Usage SD Non-users 8,63 1,21 4,04 0,97 Light users 9,02 1,46 4,63 1,27 Heavy users 9,04 1,18 4,78 0,76 Non-users 7,96 1,36 3,38 1,19 Light users 8,05 1,27 3,73 0,91 Heavy users 8,13 1,23 4,03 0,90 The table shows that the average grade and the average usage intention are higher for the library with the free membership. The results from this simulation have been compared in a paired samples T test. The T test provided evidence that the scores for the two libraries where significantly correlated (p<.01) and that the differences in mean scores are indeed significant (p<.01). The results from the T test can be found in Appendix XXV. To find out the effect of a membership fee, the percentage of respondents who were very positive (grade >8) and were very likely to use the library (usage >4) have been calculated for both simulated libraries. These scores, and the changes in both grade and usage intention, can be found in table 5.6.2b. Table 5.6.2b % Change in Grade(>8) & Usage (>4) Price Library Library 1 Library 2 % Increase Cluster Grade Usage Grade Usage Grade Usage Non-users 67,7 54,8 51, ,1 32,9 Light users 71,4 71,4 42,9 28,6 28,5 42,8 Heavy users 75 80,6 55,6 58,3 19,4 22,3 With these results PRQ4: What is the effect of price on library usage? can be answered. Table 5.6.2b shows that adding a membership fee drops the usage intention of all the user groups. The group of non-users that are very likely to make use of the library (usage >4) is just over 50 per cent, if the membership is free of costs. The drop in usage intention is the largest for the group with light users. Adding a membership fee of 30 Euros decreases the group of light users, that are very likely to make use of the library (usage >4), with more than 42 per cent. The group of light users is expected to be the most sensitive to the height of the 46

47 fee. The good news for libraries is that, even with a membership fee, nearly 30 per cent of the respondents aged over 18 is very likely to make use of this library. 5.7 Conclusion The TPB model in a library setting has been tested with the use of several regression analyses. A conjoint analysis provided the evidence that for Grade, Mediadossiers is the most important attribute. For Usage Intention, Price turned out to be the most important. With the information gathered from the conjoint analysis the question PRQ2: What technological developments could influence the future of libraries and what is their expected effect and impact? can be answered. The technological attributes of the analysis: Mediadossiers, ebooks and Acquisition have a significant positive impact on Grade and Usage Intention. The utility scores for Grade (Mediadossiers (.60), ebooks (.45) and Acquisition (.32)) are slightly higher than the utility scores for Usage Intention (Mediadossiers (utility.33), ebooks (utility.24) and Acquisition (utility.19)). The mean scores of the three user groups significantly differed for both Grade and Usage Intention, but the Anova test could not indicate which library attributes caused these differences. With the use of a simulation it could be concluded that offering an ebook digitally or not, makes a significant difference. A second simulation resulted in some good news for libraries. Even with a membership fee, nearly 30 per cent of the respondents aged over 18 is very likely to make use of the library. 47

48 Chapter 6 Discussion The final chapter of this master thesis will serve as a reflection on the previous chapters. First, the research question will be answered followed by the implications for existing knowledge in the paragraph Discussion. Next, recommendations for public libraries and recommendations for future research will be discussed. This thesis will be concluded with the limitations of the research study. 6.1 Conclusion This paragraph will focus on the research questions that were presented in paragraph 1.2. The answers to these research questions will be used to formulate an answer to the problem statement. TRQ1: What constructs, in which model, determine library usage? When analysing behaviour based on conscious decision making in the field of psychology, researchers often use Fishbein and Ajzen s Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) model. Walster (1994) states that the Fishbein and Ajzen model can be applied for understanding and predicting beliefs, attitudes, intentions and behaviours in the area of Library Information Services (LIS). Stalpers (2007) used the model for predicting reading behaviour. Bos (2009) concluded that the TPB could also be used on other groups of library users and non-users. The modified model by Bos has been used to determine library usage. PRQ1: Will new digital library services increase the attractiveness of libraries for youths? The researched conjoint attributes all have a positive and significant impact on the person s linking of the library. In paragraph 5.3 it was already shown that the number of positives influences liking. Hence it can be concluded that the offered new services indeed increase the attractiveness for teenagers and young adults. PRQ2: What technological developments could influence the future of libraries and what is their expected effect and impact? The technological attributes of the analysis: Mediadossiers, ebooks and Acquisition have a significant positive impact on Grade and Usage Intention. The utility scores for Grade (Mediadossiers (.60), ebooks (.45) and Acquisition (.32)) are slightly higher than the utility scores for Usage Intention (Mediadossiers (utility.33), ebooks (utility.24) and Acquisition (utility.19)). 48

49 PRQ3: What constructs determine future library usage? From the results in paragraph 5.4.3, it can be concluded that the Attitude Towards Offered Services and Current Usage both make a statistically significant unique contribution to predicting usage intention (p<.01). With a Beta of 0.55, the Attitude Towards Offered Services makes the strongest unique contribution to explaining Usage Intention. The model explains 39 per cent of the variance in Usage Intention. The regression analysis confirmed that the combination of an individual s current usage and their attitude towards the offered services can partially predict a person s intention to use the future library. PRQ4: What is the effect of price on library usage? adding a membership fee drops the usage intention of all the user groups. The group of non-users that are very likely to make use of the library (usage >4) is just over 50 per cent, if the membership is free of costs. The drop in usage intention is the largest for the group with light users. Adding a membership fee of 30 Euros decreases the group of light users, that are very likely to make use of the library (usage >4), with more than 42 per cent. The group of light users is expected to be the most sensitive to the height of the fee. The good news for libraries is that, even with a membership fee, nearly 30 per cent of the respondents aged over 18 is very likely to make use of this library. On the basis of the previous the problem statement can be answered: What are the most important attributes libraries in the Netherlands can use to form a digital service in order to attract youths in the age group 12-25? The attributes under investigation (ebooks, Mediadossiers, Mode of acquisition, Recommendations, Lending period and Price) all make a substantial impact on the attitude towards the offered service and the usage intention. The importance of each attribute can be viewed in table 6.1a for Grade and 6.1b for Usage Intention. Table 6.1a Importance values Grade Importance Grade Mediadossiers 22,77 Price 19,2 ebooks 18,27 Acquisition 14,21 Recommendations 13,29 LendingPeriod 12,27 49 Table 6.1b Importance values Usage Importance Usage Price 24,02 Mediadossiers 19,87 ebooks 17,05 Acquisition 14,19 Recommendations 12,85 LendingPeriod 12,02

50 From these results it was concluded that youths are interested in the new products Mediadossiers and ebooks but Price is also a very important factor. In paragraph it was also concluded that Price becomes the most important attribute when it comes to actual usage intention. 6.2 Discussion The initial research design included Perceived Behavioural Control as a significant factor in determining library usage intention. However, by means of the regression analysis in paragraph PBC turned out not to be significant and should thus be removed as an estimator. This matches the results of Stalpers (2007). However, Bos (2009) found PBC to be a significant determinant in explaining the attitude towards lending from the library. The difference in results is most likely due to the large difference in the mean age of the respondents. The mean age of the respondents in Bos study was 65 compared to the mean age of 17 in this study. Finding information on the internet is second nature to most youths. A 65 year old is more likely to have difficulties using new technologies. Paragraph 5.4 concluded that Current Attitude Towards the Library has a direct, and a combined effect with Current Usage, on Usage Intention. These results have led to an adjusted model for predicting the Usage Intention of a future library (figure 6.2). This revised model can also be regarded as the graphical answer to PRQ3. Library Stimuli Attitude Towards Offered Services Intention For Library Usage Current Attitude Towards Library Current Usage Social Influence Figure 6.2: Revised model explaining the Usage Intention of library services through the Theory of Planned Behaviour 50

51 6.3 Recommendations for public libraries 1. The conjoint study supplied sufficient evidence that technological innovation can increase the attractiveness of libraries for youths (PRQ2). The magic word appears to be convenience. The internet has spoiled youths with an abundance of information at their fingertips. As long as the library cannot offer similar convenient access to information youths will still prefer the easy route. 2. Youths have showed substantial interest in the possibility to loan ebooks from the public library. A more high-tech way of reading is more appealing to the digital generation. 3. As things are looking now, publishers have decided that the library will initially only be allowed to offer digital books via the same path as traditional (paper) books. This means that an ebook can be unavailable like a paper book and the ebook has to be picked up in the library itself. Offering ebooks as a paper book might still prove interesting for current users of the library but it is no reason for a digital minded youngster to start making use of the library. Chapter five provided the evidence which proved that the mode of acquisition (digital vs. in the library) has a large impact on both the grade and the indicated usage intention. The ebook will be far more successful for attracting non-users if it can be downloaded from their own pc. 4. Price is an important factor but paragraph concluded that, as long as the products and services are appealing, nearly 30 per cent of the respondents will most likely use the library, even if they are required to pay an annual membership fee of 30 Euros. The group of light users is expected to be the most sensitive to the height of the fee. Additional research is required to find out what the optimal pricing level would be. 5. A shift towards digital products is not only more appealing to youths but it can also be a major cost saver for libraries. The storage and maintenance costs of ebooks are only a fraction of those of paper books. 6.4 Recommendations for following research 1. The conjoint study was limited to six attributes. Scores for Grade and Usage Intention will differ when other attributes are used. The framework of this research can be used to test additional library attributes for both online and offline products and services. 51

52 2. The conjoint study asked respondents to rate an imaginary future library. Some of the constructs used to compose a library are hard to rate without actually experiencing it. This especially holds for the new digital techniques ebooks, Mediadossiers and the mode of acquisition. Röst also claimed in our interviews that 46 per cent of all youths have never heard of the ebook. To counter this problem, the questionnaire contained an explanation of all the attributes. However, this is not the best way to tackle this problem. It would be very interesting to find out, by means of an experiment, how youths rate the actual use of ebooks on an ereader. By using a test-group the discussion about offering an ebook through download or having to pick it up in the library can also be further investigated. 3. The simulation study on Price in paragraph was able to give an indication of Grade and Usage Intention but only for two levels; no membership fee and a membership fee of 30 Euros. Additional research is required to determine the optimal level of the membership fee. 6.5 Limitations Not all youths between the age of are students. The questionnaire was, almost entirely, conducted at schools. The questionnaire contained no question whether the participant was still a student, so no differentiation between studying and non-studying youths could be made. Furthermore, the questionnaire was conducted at several locations but all of these locations are based in the South of the Netherlands. It is possible that the results would be somewhat different in other regions. In paragraph 4.1 it was already stated that the sample showed an overrepresentation of HAVO and VWO students and an underrepresentation of MBO and HBO students. This might influence the average grades and usage scores. Besides the scores of the MBO 1-2 respondents, no evidence was found that the average scores for Grade and Usage Intention differed significantly per education level. Many youths appear to use the school library as an alternative source for books and information. Unfortunately, the alternative sources of books and information were left out of the questionnaire. 52

53 References Armitage, Christopher J., Conner, Mark (2001), Efficacy of the Theory of Planned Behaviour: a metaanalytic review, British Journal of social Psychology, 40, Bamberg, Sebastian, Ajzen, Icek, Schmidt, Peter (2007), Choice of Travel Mode in the Theory of Planned Behavior: The Roles of Past Behavior, Habit, and Reasoned Action, Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 25, Bos, Bé (2009), Leengoed: een studie naar bibliotheekgebruik, Groningen, Holland Burns, Alvin C., Bush, Ronald F. (2006), Principes van marktonderzoek: toepassingen met SPSS, Upper Saddle River, NJ USA: Pearson Dawes, John (2008), Do data characteristics change according to the number of scale points used? An experiment using 5-point, 7-point and 10-point scales, International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 50, No.1, pp Driel van, Hans, Heijden van der, Emmeken (2007), ff wennen: De openbare bibliotheek in een digitale cultuur, Burgers, media en bibliotheken (pp ), Den Haag, Holland: VOB Eijk van, Peter, Meijer, Frans, Roelofs, Jaqueline, Soelen van, Hans and Veen, Hans (2008), Agenda voor de toekomst, Den Haag, Holland: Vereniging van Openbare Bibliotheken Fink, Arlene (2003), How to Design Survey Studies, Thousand Oaks, CA USA: Sage Fink, Arlene (2003), How to Sample in Surveys, Thousand Oaks, CA USA: Sage Fishbein, Martin, Ajzen, Icek (1975), Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research, Reading, MA USA: Addison-Wesley Green, Paul E. (1984), Hybrid Models for Conjoint Analysis: An Expository Review, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol.21, No.2 (May) pp

54 Green, Paul E., Srinivasan, V. (1990), Conjoint Analysis in Marketing: New Developments with Implications for Research and Practice, Journal of Marketing, Vol.54, No.4 (Oct) pp.3 Hair Jr., Joseph, Black, William, Babin, Barry, Anderson, Rolph (2010), Multivariate Data Analysis, A Global Perspective, Upper Saddle River, NJ USA: Pearson Huysmans, Frank (2008), De Nieuwe Afnemer (DNA) van de bibliotheek, samenwerking Bibliotheek huis Limburg en Cubiss Huysmans, Frank and Hillebrink, Carolien (2008), De openbare bibliotheek 10 jaar van nu, Den Haag, Holland: Sociaal Cultureel Planbureau Bakker, Jasper (2010), Prijsoorlog e-readers barst los, Uploaded : Retrieved: Miller, George A. (1994), The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information, Psychological Review, Vol.101, No.2, pp OCLC (2005), Perceptions of Libraries and Information Resources. A report to the oclc membership, Dublin, OH USA: oclc Online Computer Library Center, Inc. Sekaran, Uma (2003), Research Methods for Business: A Skill Building Approach, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Stalpers, Cedric (2002), Overzicht van onderzoek naar bibliotheekgebruik en leesgedrag van jongeren, Tilburg, Holland: Universiteit van Tilburg Stalpers, Cedric (2004), Marktsegmenten onder volwassenen, Den Haag, Holland: Vereniging van Openbare Bibliotheken Stalpers, Cedric (2007), Het verhaal achter de lezer: een empirisch onderzoek naar variabelen die verschillen in leesgedrag verklaren, Delft, Holland: Eburon 54

55 Vaus de, David (2002), Surveys in Social Research, St. Leaonards, Australia: Allen & Unwin Verschuren, M. (2008). Cultuur is breed, maar mijn portemonnee niet: Onderzoek naar de factoren die cultuurdeelname van middelbare scholieren bepalen, Tilburg: Universiteit van Tilburg. Walster, Dian (1994), Applying an Attitude-Bahavior Consistency Model to Research in Library and Information Science, Library & Information Science Research, Vol.16, No.2, pp

56 List of figures and tables Figure 1.1 Library membership by age SCP (AVO 79-03) 7 Figure 2.2 Theory of Planned Behaviour model (Ajzen; 1985) 13 Figure Schematic representation explaining the usage intention of library 17 services through the Theory of Planned Behaviour Table 3.1a Expert Characteristics 18 Table 3.1b User Characteristics 19 Figure 4.2.1a Example of attitude questions 24 Figure 4.2.1b Example of social influence questions 25 Table 4.2.2a Conjoint Factors 28 Table 4.2.2b Single Conjoint Treatment 29 Table 4.3 Education levels per location 30 Figure 4.3 Normal distribution education VS 30 Table 4.3a Respondents clustered on Visit Frequency per year 31 Table 4.3b Characteristics of Respondents 32 Table 4.4 Overview trustworthiness scales 34 Table 5.1 Mean scores by question order 35 Table 5.2 Average TPB scores 35 Table TPB linear Regression (Attitude, Social Influence, PBC) 36 Table 5.3 Average Library scores 37 Table Correlations Actual Grade VS Conjoint Grade 37 Figure Importance summary Grading 38 Table Correlations Actual Usage VS Conjoint Usage 39 Figure Importance summary Usage Intention 39 Table Usage Intention linear Regression (TPB) 40 Table Usage Intention linear Regression (TPB, Current Usage) 41 Table Usage Intention linear Regression (Average Grade, Visit Frequency) 42 Table 5.5 Mean scores Grade & Usage Intention 42 Table 5.6 Simulation Base Values 43 Table 5.6.1a Mean Scores Simulated ebook Library 44 Table 5.6.1b % Change in Grade (>8) & Usage (>4) ebook Library 44 Table 5.6.2a Mean Scores Simulated Price Library (Age>18) 45 Table 5.6.2b % Change in Grade(>8) & Usage (>4) Price Library 45 Table 6.1a Importance values Grade 48 Table 6.1b Importance values Usage Intention 48 Figure 6.2 Revised schematic representation explaining the Usage Intention 49 of library services through the Theory of Planned Behaviour 56

57 Appendices Appendix I Lending by libraries in the Netherlands (amounts x1000) * 2006* 2007* Adults 18 Youths 17 Lineair (Adults 18) Lineair (Youths 17) * Excluding provincial organisations Audiovisual material lending * 2006* 2007* Muziek Cd's Videocassettes, Dvd's Cd-rom's, Cd-I's Andere audiovisuele middelen * Excluding provincial organisations Data retrieved from CBS.nl 57

58 Appendix II Media usage in the Netherlands (as the main leisure time activity) Population aged >12, (in hours per week) Data retrieved from tijdsbesteding.nl Research by the Sociaal en Cultureel Planbureau: Tijdsbestedingsonderzoek 58

59 Appendix III Daily leisure time activities Relaxing 7% Reading 6% Videogames 7% Family time 22% Hobby 13% Television 15% Homework 12% Internet 18% Source: IVO Factsheet, Monitor internet en jongeren Data retrieved from: 59

60 Appendix IV First choice for information search College students - across all regions (Aus, Can, UK, US) Source: OCLC Libraries and Information Sources 60

Appendix A: List of variables with corresponding questionnaire items (in English) used in chapter 2

Appendix A: List of variables with corresponding questionnaire items (in English) used in chapter 2 167 Appendix A: List of variables with corresponding questionnaire items (in English) used in chapter 2 Task clarity 1. I understand exactly what the task is 2. I understand exactly what is required of

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