Market value of real estate

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1 1 Market value f real estate Guy Hfman Gérald Henskens Octber 9th, 2014

2 2 Outline Cntext and issue Slutin Increasing perfrmance Watch ut Return n investment Future imprvements

3 3 Cntexte and issue One f the missins f Patrimny Dcumentatin = fiscal cntrl n declared value f real prperty in deeds and declaratins T prevent and fight fraud in the matter f registratin duties and inheritance taxes

4 4 Cntexte and issue Detectin f dubius prperty transactins Establish crrect market value f cnveyed prperty different categries : land, huse, apartment, situatin : anywhere in Belgium indicatin f pririty fr cntrl

5 5 Slutin Mdelling real prperty data nly huses and apartments multiple regressin with 11 bjective parameters Situatin : street r zne Type : villa, bel-étage, serial cnstructin, bungalw, # facades # flrs Year f cnstructin

6 6 Slutin Mdelling real prperty data multiple regressin with 11 bjective parameters Quality f cnstructin # garages # entities fr families # rms (apartment) r Surface area (huse) Ttal useable flr surface Date f valuatin

7 7 Slutin Eliminatin f extremes 1 frmula fr every municipality blk-znege-zneval afdeling nsr cc1 cc2 cc3 cc4 cc5 cc7 cc8 cc11 cc13 cc14 perc.pp. datum VERKOOPWAARDE Vrk Laag Vrk Hg a 2 n 1935 n /04/ AARTSELAAR 0,92 1, AARTSELAAR H AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR 40 a AARTSELAAR 2n n 0 3 tuinpp. AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR AARTSELAAR A AARTSELAAR 2N N Ceff. ppakte3s prgembl gem SEE intercept leeftijdsq cc14_sum day1 day1sq leeftijd prcc1 prcc11 prcc2 prcc34 prcc7 prcc8 cc14sq ppakte3 q kzne , ,4647 0, , , AARTSELAAR 23440, , , , , ,

8 8 Slutin

9 9 Slutin Calculated market value with minimum/maximum based n Standard Errr f the Estimate Every 2 weeks imprt f new transactin data Selectin f pssibly dubius transactins with theretical return

10 10 Increasing perfrmance SAS envirnment with training and caching Translatin f the mathematical mdel using E-guide Recruitment f dataminers Autmatin Supprt f external cnsultants

11 11 Watch ut Business understanding Data understanding Data quality and cleaning Spnsring by managers fr implementatin Feedback frm users

12 12 Return n investment Ptentially recvering 200 millin eurs in lst prperty taxes per year (nly huses and apartments) Transacties juni 2013 t december 2013 Cde Statuscde betekenis Aantal verkpen Percent verkpen Aantal erfenissen Percent erfenissen 1 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van type inschrijving 46 0,03% 126 0,15% 2 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van verstreken termijn ,80% ,72% 3 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van type psteller ,20% 515 0,59% 4 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van vrafgaande schatting 0 0,00% ,27% 5 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van vast recht 544 0,41% 0 0,00% 6 Geen cntrle venale waarde, p basis van nultarief ,07% ,55% 41 Te cntrleren, Geen mathematisch mdel beschikbaar ,81% ,00% 47 Te cntrleren, Mathematische waarde niet berekend ,80% ,65% 51 Niet te cntrleren, Lcwaarde bven bvenkant vrk ,04% ,36% 52 Niet te cntrleren, Lcwaarde binnen vrk ,69% ,69% 61 Niet te cntrleren, Lcwaarde gelijk nderkant vrk 694 0,52% 511 0,59% 62 Te cntrleren, Lcwaarde kleiner dan nderkant vrk, geen tarief beschikbaar 137 0,10% 204 0,24% 63 Niet te cntrleren, Theretisch rendement kleiner dan 400 eur ,66% ,81% 64 Te cntrleren, Theretisch rendement tussen 400 en 1000 eur ,35% ,01% 65 Te cntrleren, Theretisch rendement grter dan 1000 eur ,52% ,37% ,00% ,00%

13 13 Return n investment Dissuasive effect : unwanted behaviur decreases dramatically when peple realise hw we select and cntrl

14 14 Future imprvements Mre input frm real estate agents and Regins > frm 11 t 25 parameters Energy Perfrmance Certificate Slar panels Kitchen equipment Sanitary equipment Urbanistic pssibilities Mbility pssibilities Level f maintenance

15 15 Future imprvements Extensin f the ppulatin > all buildings Use f anther technique > State Space Mdeling > Dutch example Hierarchical Trend Mdel

16 16 Hierarchical Trend Mdel Used by Dutch administratins fr tax purpses Based n Time Series Explains the value f real estate by husing characteristics, lcatin and time Hierarchy f trends: Cmmn trend Lcatin based trend Building type trend

17 17 Hierarchical Trend Mdel Lcatin based and building type trends mdelled as deviatins frm the cmmn trend Husing characteristics are time-invariant Lg(price) = influence f characteristics + level cmmn trend + level lcatin based trend + level building type trend + errr term

SAS Frum Twitter Cntest Tweet t win prizes! 6. Het jaarlijks bedrag aan vastgedfraude in België wrdt - alleen vr huizen en appartementen - geschat p A. 200 miljen eur B. 20 miljen eur C.

18 SAS Frum Twitter Cntest Tweet t win prizes! 6. Het jaarlijks bedrag aan vastgedfraude in België wrdt - alleen vr huizen en appartementen - geschat p A. 200 miljen eur B. 20 miljen eur C. 2 miljard eur Tweet yur answer: 6C Prizes t win: 1 st prize: a ticket fr Analytics nd prize: a bk f Prf Bart Baesens: Analytics in a big data wrld 3 rd t 30 th prize: chclates with pepper Start f yur tweet Questin # Yur answer Winners will be cntacted pst-frum! Cpyr i g ht 2013, SAS Ins titut e Inc. All rights res er ve d.

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