SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN WELVAART

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1 SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN WELVAART Prof. Em. Wim Moesen Centrum voor Economische Studiën Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Leerstoel Rik Branson Leuven, 21 november 2008

2 INHOUD 1. SOCIAAL KAPITAAL EN ECONOMISCHE WELVAART Transmissiemechanisme 2. METEN EN VALIDEREN Empirische bevindingen 3. STERKTEN- ZWAKTENANALYSE Beleidsconclusies

3 SOCIAAL KAPITAAL FORMELE INSTELLINGEN (wetten, regels, organisaties ) INFORMELE INSTELLINGEN (normen, conventies, taboes ) CULTURELE WAARDEN

4 WELVAART ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE VERTROUWEN SOCIAAL KAPITAAL

5 TRANSMISSIEMECHANISME? Macro-economische performanties Vertrouwen Vermindert transactiekosten Verhoogt productiviteit

6 Francis FUKAYAMA (1995) Trust: the social virtues and economic prosperity BENADERING VAN DE TRANSACTIEKOSTEN Douglas NORTH (1993) Oliver WILLIAMSON (1975, 1979, 1985)

7 TRUST AND RETURNED WALLETS

8 MAATSCHAPPELIJK KAPITAAL EN VERTROUWEN Maatschappelijk kapitaal = cultuur van de maatschappij Met - formele beperkingen grondwet, wetten, - informele beperkingen morele waarden, attitudes, Beïnvloedt vertrouwen in de maatschappij Vertrouwen in de publieke sector Beïnvloedt economische performantie

9 METEN EN VALIDEREN DATA ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE DATA CULTURELE WAARDEN BEVINDINGEN

10 DE CONSTRUCTIE VAN EEN COMPOSIET- INDEX VOOR DE METING VAN PERFORMANTIE SCOPE: WELKE INDICATOREN? NORMALISERING: HOE HERSCHALEN? AGGREGATIE: WELKE WEGING?

11 SYNTHETISCHE INDICATOR VAN MACRO- ECONOMSICHE PERFORMANTIE TINBERGEN REELE GROEI WERKLOOSHEID LOPENDE REKENING BETALINGSBALANS INFLATIE

12 VERTROUWEN IN PUBLIEKE SECTOR & ECONOMISCHE PERFORMANTIE Meetinstrumenten: economische performantie Groei BBP 4 factoren Inflatie Werkloosheidsgraad Saldo op lopende rekening 2 maatstaven Simep Ongewogen Limep Gewogen 2 families Simep 4 / Limep 4 Simep 3 / Limep 3 Met saldo Lopende rekening zonder saldo Lopende rekening

13 Twee indicatoren: DATA CULTURELE WAARDEN (1)Vertrouwen in publieke sector: synthetische maatstaf Favoritisme Onafhankelijkheid rechterlijke macht 5 ingrediënten Corruptie Regeringsverbintenissen Vertrouwen in eerlijkheid van politici (2) Werkethiek (arbeidsmotivatie, loyauteit, )

14 BEVINDINGEN: REGRESSIERESULTATEN Afhankelijke Variabele Intercept (Stand. Dev.) Werkethiek (Stand. Dev.) Vertrouwen in Publieke sector (Stand. Dev.) R 2 SIMEP (0.288) (0.046) (0.031) LIMEP (0.364) (0.058) (0.039) SIMEP (0.318) (0.050) (0.034) LIMEP (0.402) (0.064) (0.043) 0.380

15 EMPIRICS: GRAPHICAL

16 CLASSIFICATIE VAN LANDEN

17 Global Competitiveness Report What is competitiveness? The World Competitiveness Report defines competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country

18 Global Competitiveness Report Problems when constructing a Composite Indicator 1. Problem of scope 2. Problem of normalisation 3. Problem fo weighting

19 The index is composed of 12 pillars measuring different aspects of an economy s competitiveness Basic Requirements I. Institutions II. Infrastructure III. Macroeconomic stability IV. Health and primary education Efficiency Enhancers V. Higher education and training VI. Goods market efficiency VII. Labor market efficiency VIII. Financial market sophistication IX. Technological readiness X. Market size Innovation and sophistication factors XI. Business sophistication XII. Innovation Key for factor-driven economies Key for efficiency-driven economies Key for innovation-driven economies

20 Survey methodology - The hard data indicators used in the GCI are normalized on a 1- to 7- scale - Official public sources are often insufficient for painting an accurate picture of a country s business operating environment. -> Executive opinion survey: Soft Data

21 Executive Opinion Survey - Survey conducted by Partner Institutes - Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School exclusively for Belgium - Overall, business leaders were questioned in a 134 national economies - Average of 90 responses per country - Belgium received 109 responses! - Random selection based on sector share in national GDP

22 Belgium s Competitiveness Rank: Growth Competitiveness Index (Old series) Global Competitiveness Index (New series) Year (No. Countries Ranked) (75) 2002 (80) 2003 (101) 2004 (104) 2005 (117) 2006 (125) 2007 (131) 2008 (134) 5 10 Rank Old Series New series

23 The Global competitiveness index - ranking Rank Country Scor e Rank last year Rank Country Scor Rank last year 1 United States 5, Korea, rep. 5, Switzerland 5, Austria 5, Denmark Sweden Singapore Finland Germany Netherlands Japan Canada Hong Kong SAR 5,58 5,53 5,53 5,50 5,46 5,41 5,38 5,37 5, Norway France Taiwan, China Australia Belgium Iceland Malaysia Ireland Israel New Zealand United Kingdom 5, Luxembourg

24 Important changes vs Country Ranking Ranking Change United States 1 1 = Switzerland 2 2 = Denmark 3 3 = Sweden 4 4 = Singapore Germany Netherlands Japan United Kingdom France Belgium Luxembourg = China India No changes in top 4, Singapore enters top 5 - France, the UK and the Netherlands were already better ranked than Belgium and are characterized by major improvements. Germany stays ahead of Belgium. - Improvements in China whereas India fell to the 50th place

25 Pillar Rankings higher than our 19th position Which pillars pushed us forward? Name Belgium s Rank 2008 Belgium s Rank 2007 Score Health and primary education Higher education and training Business sophistication ,4 Goods market efficiency Innovation Infrastructure

26 Pillar Rankings lower than our 19th position Which pillars pulled us backward? Name Rank 2008 Rank 2007 Score Financial market sophistication Institutions ,2 Technological readiness Market size Macroeconomic stability Labor market efficiency

27 Belgium s 10 best single items Pillar Health and primary education Malaria incidence Name Rank 1 Health and primary education Higher education and training Goods market efficiency Higher education and training Goods market efficiency Higher education and training Innovation Business sophistication Goods market efficiency Quality of primary education Quality of math and science education Time required to start a business Quality of educational system No. of procedures required to start a business Quality of management schools Quality of scientific research institutions Local supplier quality Trade-weighted tariff rate

28 Belgium s 10 most unfavourable single items Pillar Name Rank 2008 Rank 2007 Goods market efficiency Extent and effect of taxation Labor market efficiency Non-wage labor costs Labor market efficiency Flexibility of wage determination Macroeconomics stability Government debt Labor market efficiency Hiring and firing practices Goods market efficiency Total tax rate Labor market efficiency Pay and productivity Institutions Burden of government regulation Labor market efficiency Cooperation in labor-employer relations Macroeconomics stability Government surplus/deficit 63 51

29 Benchmark of Belgium s 10 most favourable items Name Rank Belgium Rank The Netherlands Rank France Rank Germany Rank Luxembourg Rank UK Malaria incidence Quality of primary education Quality of math and science education Time required to start a business Quality of educational system No. of procedures required to start a business Quality of management schools Quality of scientific research institutions Local supplier quality Trade-weighted tariff rate

30 Benchmark of Belgium s 10 most unfavourable items Name Rank Belgium Rank The Netherlands Rank France Rank Germany Rank Luxembourg Rank UK Extent and effect of taxation Non-wage labor costs Flexibility of wage determination Government debt Hiring and firing practices Total tax rate Pay and productivity Burden of government regulation Cooperation in laboremployer relations Government surplus/deficit

31 The most problematic Factors for doing business in Belgium - Restrictive labour regulations (19,2 % of responses) - Tax rates (17,3% of responses) - Inefficient government bureaucracy (12,2% of responses) - Tax regulations (11,1% of responses) - Inadequately educated workforce (9,8% of responses)

32 VERTROUWEN IN BELGISCHE OVERHEIDSINSTELLINGEN Gezondheidszorg 82,6 Onderwijs 77,9 Sociale zekerheid 69,4 Politie 55,4 Overheidsadministratie 46,1 Parlement 39,1 Justitie 36,4 (Bron: European Values Study, 2000)

33 VERTROUWEN IN INSTELLINGEN (2002) Onderwijs 79,1% Gemeentelijke administratie 52,5% Vlaamse Administratie 40,4% Gerecht 30,1% (Bron: Instituut voor de Overheid, Werken aan de Overheid)

34 TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS B DK EU-15 Justice/National Legal System Police Army Trade Unions Big Companies Charitable or voluntary organisations Eurobarometer 2003

35 One of the most problematic factors for doing business in Belgium Trust in Belgian institutions Inefficient government bureaucracy

36 Government effectiveness Data on Government Effectiveness borrowed from World Bank: Kaufmann et al., Governance Matters, (edition 2007) - Survey data for 212 countries - Composite indicator

37 Global competitiveness versus government effectiveness 5.8 Global Competitiveness Index IT PT ES Fr JP US CH D SW FL UK NL CA A AU NO BE IRL IS NZ LU DK EL Government effectiveness 2006 GCI coefficient Std. Error p-value constant effectiven ess R-squared 0.570

38 Government effectiveness and budget size

39 Global Competitiveness Index versus budget size Global Competitiveness Index Budget size 2007

40 Global Competitiveness Index versus budget size bivariate econometrics Global Competitiveness Index budget size 2007 GCI coefficient Std. Error p-value constant budget size R- squared 0.009

41 Global Competitiveness Index versus budget size clusters of countries Global Competitiveness Index CH JP US AU IRL D UK LU ES PT EL A NZ IT NL IS CA BE Fr FL SW DK NO Budget size 2007

42 Government effectiveness versus budget size 2.5 DK Government effectiveness CH AU US IRL JP CA UK LU D ES PT EL NZ NL IT A IS BE Fr FL NO SW Budget size 2007 effectiveness coefficient Std. Error p-value constant budget size R-squared 0.067

43 Non-parametric approach

44 Non-parametric approach Output D FDH best practice frontier F H C B G A x o, y o E Input

45 Non-parametric approach Budget size corrected for: - Small open economy (Dani Rodrick, 1998) - Small family size

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47 The quality of government The quality of government is related to (correlation coefficient) - The strictness of the budgetary procedures 0.66 (12 EU-countries) - The trust in other people 0.62 (23 OECD-countries) - The trust of foreigners 0.89 (19 EU-countries)

48 CONTENTS OF HAPPINESS Subjective well-being + personality characteristics + socio-demographic factors Human well-being + health + education Economic welfare + employment + inflation GDP Regrettables

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50 LIFE SATISFACTION ( ) RUUD VEENHOVEN, TILBURG UNIVERSITY CORRELATIONS WITH Control of corruption.85 Rule of law.85 Government effectiveness (World Bank).83 Political voice and accountability.78 Membership voluntary organisations.63 Health expenditures per capita.60 Trust in official institutions.55 Trust in people.54