Rotterdam Wereld Balans Wereld Import & Export. Ukraine Export. EU Balans EU Import & Export EU Mais Import Spaanse S&D Nederlandse S&D

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1 Marktontwikkelingen door W. Helmink Rotterdam World Wereld Balans Inhoudsopgave Wereld Import & Export Ukraine, Rusland & Kazakhstan Tarwe Balans Ukraine Export EU EU Balans EU Import & Export EU Mais Import Spaanse S&D Nederlandse S&D Prijzen CBOT/Matif Toekomstperspectief Positief/Negatief Kansen 1

2 Wereld Balans Wheat World Balance Mt 2012/ /14 Change % Carry in stock 192,3 172,9 10,1% production 654, ,3% of which USA 61,8 58 6,1% Canada 27,2 37,5 37,9% Australia 22, ,0% Argetina 82 8, ,0% EU ,6 142,2 8,1% Russia 37,7 52,1 38, Ukraine 15,8 22,3 41,1% Kaahkstan 9,8 13,9 41,8% India 94,9 93,5 1,5% China 120,6 121,7 0,9% Import 140,5 150,3 7,0% Export 140,5 150,3 7,0% Consumption 674,4 692,1 2,6% Carry out stock 172,9 189,7 9,7% Corn World Balance Mt 2012/ /14 Change % Carry in stock 130,8 127,5 2,5% production 861, ,4% of which USA 273,8 353,7 29, Argentina ,3% EU 27 56,3 64,5 14,6% Ukraine 15,8 22,3 41,1% 1% China 205,6 217,7 5,9% Import 96,1 111,5 16,0% Export 96,1 111,5 16,0% Consumption 864, ,7% Carry out stock 127,5 155,4 21,9% Barley World Balance Mt 2012/ /14 Change % Carry in stock 25,9 22,7 12,4% production 130,2 145,2 11,5% Canada 8 10,2 27,5% Australia 7,5 9,6 28,0% Argentina 5,2 4,7 9,6% EU 27 54,55 59,6 94% 9,4% Russia 13,9 15,4 10,8% Ukraine 6,9 7,6 10,1% Import 19,5 20,1 3,1% Export 19,5 20,1 3,1% Consumption 133, ,0% Carry out stock 22,7 27,8 22,5% Oogst goed kwaliteit tarwe heel goed 2

3 Wereld Import/Export Wheat Export Mt 2012/ /14 EU 27 21,7 28 Pakistan 0,4 0,4 Turkey 2,8 3,3 USA 27,5 31,2 Canada 18,7 22,3 Australia 21,3 19 Argentina 7,1 2 Ukraine 7,1 9,5 Russia 11,2 17 Kazakhstan 7,2 7 China 0,4 0,4 Total 140,5 150,3 Wheat Import Mt 2012/ /14 EU 27 6,6 5,8 CIS 7,3 6,3 N & C America 10,6 12,4 South America 14,3 14,2 Iran 54 5,4 6 Jordan 0,8 1 Yemen 3,1 3 Turkey 1,6 1,5 Near East Asia 24,2 27 Far East Asia 38 44,3 China 3,3 8,3 Northern Africa 21,9 22,5 Total 140,5 150,3 Corn Export Mt 2012/ /14 EU 27 1,5 3 Brazil 26,4 24,0 Canada 1,6 1,4 USA Argentina 18,9 15,9 Ukraine 13,6 18,3 Total 96,1 111,5 Corn Import Mt 2012/ /14 EU 27 11,6 12 CIS 0,3 0,3 N & C America 13,8 16,5 South America 9 11,1 Iran 4 4,6 Turkey 1,6 0,9 Near East Asia 11,3 12,2 Far East Asia 37,3 44 China 37 3,7 55 5,5 Northern Africa 11,3 13 Total 96,1 111,5 Barley Export Mt 2012/ /14 EU ,3 USA 0,2 0,2 Canada 1,5 1 Australia 4,4 5,4 Argentina 2,5 3 Ukraine 2,1 2,3 Russia 2,2 2,4 Kazakhstan 0,2 0,2 China 0,4 0,4 Total 19,5 20,1 Barley Import Mt 2012/ /14 EU 27 0,3 0,4 CIS 0,3 0,5 N & C America 0,5 0,5 South America 1 0,9 Iran 1,6 0,7 Jordan 0,8 0,9 China 2,1 2,6 Turkey 1,6 1,5 Near East Asia 12,2 11,8 Saudi Arabia 8,2 8,5 Far East Asia 3,7 4 China 2,1 3,2 Northern Africa 1,3 1,9 Total 19,5 20,1 Ukraine, Rusland & Kazakhstan Tarwe Balans Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan Wheat Balance Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan Mt 2012/ / / / / /2014 Carry in stock 5,7 2,5 11 5,5 6 2,1 Production 15,8 22,3 37,7 52,1 9,8 13,9 Import 0 0 1,4 0,7 0 0 Export 7,1 9,5 11,2 17 7,2 7 Consumption 11,9 12,6 33,4 35,2 6,5 6,9 Carry out stock 2,5 2,7 5,5 6 2,1 2,2 3

4 Ukraine Export Exports Ukraine x1000mt Commodity May 01 05, 2014 May 01 05, 2013 April 2014 April /14MY** 13/14MY(f) 12/13MY Corn Wheat Barley Total Ukrainian Agri Export flow 2013/2014 Other 18% Egypt 17% UAE 1% Jordan Kenya 1% Germany 1% Morocco 1% Lebanon 1% South Korea SAR Tunisia UK Belgium Japan Syria Libya Portugal 3% India Iran 3% 3% Saudi Arabia 3% Israel 4% France 3% Spain 9% Netherlands 6% Italy 5% Turkey 4% World Wereld Balans Inhoudsopgave Wereld Import & Export Ukraine, Rusland & Kazakhstan Tarwe Balans Ukraine Export EU EU Balans EU Import & Export EU Mais Import Spaanse S&D Nederlandse S&D Prijzen CBOT/Matif Toekomstperspectief Positief/Negatief Kansen 4

5 EU Balans Wheat EU Balance Corn EU Bl Balance Barley EU Bl Balance Mt 2012/ /14 Change % Mt 2012/ /14 Change % Mt 2012/ /14 Change % Carry in stock 10 8,6 14,0% Carry in stock 16,9 12,9 23,67% Carry in stock 7,2 4,2 41,67% production ,3 8,3% production 58,2 64,9 11,51% production 54,3 59,5 9,58% Import 3,8 2 47,4% Import ,18% Import 0,1 0,3 200,00% Export 20, ,0% Export 1,8 2,8 55,56% Export (inc. Malt) 7,8 7,5 3,85% Consumption 108,8 108,4 0,4% Consumption 71,2 74,3 4,35% Consumption 49,6 49,2 0,81% Human 47,7 48,5 1,7% Animal 56,6 59,7 5,5% Animal 37,2 36,6 1,6% Animal 45,3 43,8 3,3% Carry out stock 12,9 13,7 6,20% Carry out stock 4,2 7,3 73,81% Carry out stock 8,6 9,5 10,5% EU Import/Export EU on Exports and Imports 01/07/ /04/2014 EU 28 EU 27 EU 27 01/07/ /04/ /07/ /4/ /07/ /05/2012 Export Import Export Import Export Import A.1 Wheat 25,111,000 1,393,000 16,884,000 3,328,000 11,473,000 5,147,000 A.2 Wheat Flour ,229, B.1 Durum wheat 799 1,406,000 1,050,000 1,280,000 1,119,000 1,239,000 C. Total A and B 26,816,000 2,825,000 18,912,000 4,643,000 13,821,000 6,396,000 D.1 Barley 5,178, ,301, ,657, E. Maize 2,371,000 11,957,000 1,191,000 9,577,000 2,564,000 4,563,000 F.1 Rye G. Oats H. Sorghum I. Other Cereals J. Total D and I 7,966,000 12,166,000 5,679,000 9,980,000 5,370,000 5,056,000 K. General Total 34,782,000 14,990,000 14,622,000 19,192,000 11,452,000 5

6 EU Mais Import Spaanse S&D Spanish S&D 2013/2014 Spanish S&D 2014/2015 Wheat Corn Barley Wheat %change Corn %change Barley %change Carry in Carry in % 850 0% % Production Production % % % Import from EU Import from EU % % 156 3% Import from non EU Import from non EU % % 0 0% Supply Supply % % % Hum/Ind consum Hum/Ind consum % Biofuels Biofuels 0 100% 971 6% 0 0% Feed Feed % % % Demand Demand % % % Carry out Carry out 288 5% 821 3%

7 Nederlandse S&D Dutch S&D 2013/2014 Dutch S&D 2014/2015 Wheat Corn Barley Wheat %change Corn %change Barley %change Carry in Carry in % 300 3% 109 3% Production Production % 263 4% 197 5% Import from EU Import from EU % % Import from non EU Import from non EU 35 56% % 0 0% Supply Supply % % Hum/Ind consum Hum/Ind consum % 789 3% 392 0% Biofuels Biofuels 0 0% % 0 0% Feed Feed % % % Demand Demand % % Carry out Carry out 234 5% 279 7% 103 6% World Wereld Balans Inhoudsopgave Wereld Import & Export Ukraine, Rusland & Kazakhstan Tarwe Balans Ukraine Export EU EU Balans EU Import & Export EU Mais Import Spaanse S&D Nederlandse S&D Prijzen CBOT/Matif Toekomstperspectief Positief/Negatief Kansen 7

8 Prijzen CBOT/Matif Corn Dec CBOT Wheat Dec CBOT Corn Nov MATIF Wheat Nov MATIF Canada in de winter 8

9 World Wereld Balans Inhoudsopgave Wereld Import & Export Ukraine, Rusland & Kazakhstan Tarwe Balans Ukraine Export EU EU Balans EU Import & Export EU Mais Import Spaanse S&D Nederlandse S&D Prijzen CBOT/Matif Toekomstperspectief Positief/Negatief Kansen Positief/Negatief Positief Good Carry in Crop prospect Negatief US Corn cancellation 2013/ to unknown to Spain El Niño Australia Weather US/Spain/Russia Political situation Ukraine Canadian Sowing 9

10 World USDA Voorspelling 1/2 USDA Wheat Forecasts 2012/ /2014 % Change 2014/2015 % Change Production World 657, ,63% 697,04 2,38% EU 133,85 143,32 7,08% 144,88 1,09% USA 61,67 57,96 6,0 53,43 7,8 Canada 27,21 37,5 37,8 28,5 24,00% China 121,02 121,72 0,58% 123 1,05% Australia 22, ,21% 25,5 5,56% Russia 37,72 52,09 38,10% 52 0,17% Ukraine 15,76 22,28 41,37% 20 10,23% Kazakhstan 9,84 13,94 41,67% 14,5 4,0 Argentina 9,3 10,5 12,90% 12,5 19,05% India 94,88 93,51 1,44% 94 0,5 Consumption World 679,23 702,8 3,47% 696,15 0,95% Ending Stock World 175,33 186,53 6,39% 187,42 0,48% EU 10,55 10,68 1,23% 12,06 12,9 USA 19,54 15,87 18,78% 14,71 7,31% Canada 5,05 9,82 94,46% 8,05 18,0 China 53,96 58,15 7,77% 62,18 6,93% Australia 4,26 5,44 27,70% 5,94 9,19% Russia 4,95 6,04 22,0 6,74 11,59% Ukraine 2,58 3,96 53,49% 4,06 2,53% Kazakhstan 2,94 2,09 28,91% 2,29 9,57% Argentina 0,29 2,74 844,83% 2,6 5,11% India 24,2 17,83 26,3 16,3 8,58% USDA Corn Forecasts 2012/ /2014 % Change 2014/2015 % Change Production World 868,8 979,02 12,69% 979,08 0,01% USA 273,83 353,72 29,18% 353,97 0,07% China 205,61 217,73 5,89% 220 1,04% EU 58,87 64,57 9,68% 64,65 0,1 Ukraine 20,92 30,9 47,71% 26 15,86% Brazil 81,5 75 7,98% 74 1,33% Argentina ,11% 26 8,33% Consumption World 865,24 948,78 9,66% 965,77 1,79% Ending Stock World 138,19 168,42 21,88% 181,73 7,90% USA 20,86 29,12 39,60% 43,85 50,58% China 67,57 77,7 14,99% 78,6 1,16% EU 5,09 6,16 21,0 5,81 5,68% Ukraine 1,19 3,24 172,27% 2,89 10,80% Brazil 14,15 14,95 5,65% 13,25 11,37% Argentina 1,32 3,03 129,55% 4,04 33,33% World USDA Voorspelling 2/2 USDA Barley Forecasts 2012/ /2014 % Change 2014/2015 % Change Production World 130,02 145,12 11,61% 132,53 8,68% USA 4,8 4,68 2,50% 4,27 8,76% China 1,63 1,5 7,98% 1,4 6,67% EU 54,9 59,61 8,58% 55,64 6,66% Ukraine 6,94 7,56 8,93% 7 7,41% Russia 13,952 15,389 10,30% 16 3,97% Argentina 5 4,75 5,00% 3,85 18,95% Consumption World 131,71 141,69 7,58% 138,551 2,2 Ending Stock World 20,91 24,34 16,40% 18,32 24,73% USA 1,75 1,86 6,29% 1,79 3,76% Canada 0,98 1,75 78,57% 0,98 44,00% EU 5,09 5,25 3,14% 3,94 24,95% Ukraine 0,87 0,85 2,30% 0,86 1,18% Saudi Arabia 3,1 4,01 29,35% 2,85 28,93% Iran 1,75 1,35 22,86% 1,25 7,41% USDA Soya Forecasts 2012/ /2014 % Change 2014/2015 % Change Production World 267,85 283,79 5,95% 299,82 5,65% USA 82,56 89,51 8,4 98,93 10,5 China 13,05 12,2 6,51% 12 1,64% Brazil 82 87,5 6,71% 91 4,00% Paraguay 8,3 8,1 2,41% 8,2 1,23% Argentina 49,3 54 9,53% 54 0,00% Consumption World 259,32 269,89 4,08% 280,58 3,96% Ending Stock World 57,04 66,98 17,43% 82,23 22,77% USA 3,83 3,53 7,83% 8,98 154,39% China 12,38 13,7 10,66% 13,5 1,46% Brazil 15,33 18,51 20,74% 24,56 32,69% Paraguay 0,08 0,27 237,50% 0,34 25,93% Argentina 22,4 28,05 25,2 31,16 11,09% 10

11 USA Bodemvocht & Neerslagvoorspelling US Wheat Belt US Corn Belt Canadese Zaai-Intenties Marchintentions of principal field crop areas 2012 (final) 2013 (final) March 2014 (intensions) March 2014 Thousands of acres % change Total Wheat2 23,706 26,015 24,766 9,7% 4,8% Spring Wheat 16,939 19,043 17,978 12,4% 5,6% Durum Wheat 4,68 4,965 4,835 6,1% 2,6% Winter Wheat 2,088 2,008 1,954 3,8% 2,7% Barley 7,405 7,083 6,311 4,4% 10,9% Corn for grain 3,544 3,689 3,369 4,1% 8,7% 11

12 Klimaat Model Stille Oceaan Politieke Situatie Ukraine (RUB/UAH) 12

13 Spaanse en Russische Bodemvocht & Neerslagvoorspelling Positief/Negatief Positief Good Carry in Crop prospect Negatief US Corn cancellation 2013/ to unknown to Spain El Niño Australia Weather US/Spain/Russia Political situation Ukraine Canadian Sowing 13

14 Kansen Kansen Coverageconsumption Barley pricing Barley New Crop Prices FOB Australia Canada Argentina Germany Holland Romania Ukraine Russia Barley NC FOB $257 $260 $235 $251 (aug)/$262 (sep) $260 $240 $240 $237 Dutch Paper Market Prices CIF Corn Wheat Barley Oct/Dec EUR 186 Sep/dec EUR 197 Sep/dec EUR 181 Crop developments Milling Wheat New Crop Prices FOB Milling wheat september Parity Germany France Russia Price 290US$ 287US$ 270US$ Vakantie al geboekt? 14

15 Additionele Informatie Zaken InterGrain Brokerage B.V. Tel: Tel mob: