SHAPES Systematic analysis of Health risks and physical Activity associated with cycling PoliciES

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Dries de Ruiter
7 jaren geleden
Aantal bezoeken:

1 SHAPES Systematic analysis of Health risks and physical Activity associated with cycling PoliciES Luc Int Panis VITO Bas de Geus VUB Gregory Vandenbulcke UCL Comité de suivi Leuven 5 juni 2008

2 Luc Int Panis, VITO (SHAPES coordinator) Algemene voorstelling SHAPES project Partners, Doelstellingen en methodes Metingen van fijn stof Eerste conclusies Bas de Geus, VUB Letselregistratie enquête op internet Enregistrement prospectif et rétrospectif des blessures Discussie

3 rr Contenu scientifique et objectifs Uitgangspunt Fietsen is goed voor de (volks)gezondheid & milieu Fietsers lopen grotere risico s? luchtvervuiling ongevallen letsels Doelstellingen Alle voor- en nadelen: op een wetenschappelijke manier bestuderen op een objectieve manier afwegen Beleidsmakers in staat stellen keuzes te maken mbt functioneel fietsen en vervoersmodi in de 3 gewesten

4 Doelstellingen Een integrale afweging van kosten en baten voor: individuele fietser beleidsmakers Beleidsvoorstellen die bijdragen tot: veiliger en gezonder fietsen beter leefmilieu door lagere emissies lagere kosten voor de volksgezondheid op lange termijn visie op de ontwikkeling van de infrastructuur in de 3 Belgische regio s

5 Welke taken voeren we uit? Meten van de fysieke belasting tijdens een traject (fiets of auto) Meten van de blootstelling aan luchtvervuiling GPS Position Ademvolume O2-verbruik PM10 PM2.5 Hartslag UFP Video

6 Validation & Experiment

9 No effect of sampling height on UFP readings Sampling height paired T-Test p=0.39 two sided Not significant Wilcoxon Matched Pairs signed ranks T=14 N=8 Not significant Binomial Test x=4 N=8 p=0.64 Not significant P1 P

10 Validation Ratio and 95% CI Case A 1.00 ( ) Case B 0.98 ( ) Case C 1.01 ( )

11 Experimental measurements

12 Results of methodology validation First result Measurements taken at the side of the road were on average 10% higher than those taken simultaneously at the other side of the bicycle (Ratio 1.096; Stdev 0.044). Barely significant Critical value of 0 for p=0.05 at N=6 in the Wilcoxon Matched pair signed ranks test) Only after correction for an unusually large systematic difference (~4%) between both instruments. Technical problems some data was lost during one the trips due to excessive shocks. New experiment repeat the test with N=10 determine the significance of the difference at the p=0.01 level.

13 Results Thousands Direction South North South North South North P1 P2 Ratio P1/P Pt/cc :40:48 7:55:12 8:09:36 8:24:00 8:38:24 8:52:48 9:07:12 9:21:36 Time (CET) -3

14 Identification of UFP sources from Achterbos video footage (Fiets) Sam Nico Rudi Bas Luc Bart scooter PM1 PM2,5 PM10 TSP UFP Concentratie (µg/m³) scooter Post Truck two trucks 5 cars 1 van Pt/cc two cars? car car two vans :24 9:36 10:48 12:00 13:12 14:24 Tijd 0

15 Comparison bicycle / car Achterbos average and 2*St. dev. Paired t-test 250 p<0.001 p< NS PM µg/m³ p<0.01 p< UFP #/cm³ PM In Car (N=4) PM On Bike (N=6) In Car UFP (N=4) On Bike UFP (N=6) Pt/cc PM1 PM2.5 PM10 TSP Fraction of PM 0

16 Results high peaks (~ particles per cm³ ) coincide with motorized traffic (scooters) highest values are in excess of the P-TRAK range ( Pt/cm³). alternating with much lower values around particles per cm³ P1 (closest to the road) frequently records higher values than P2 values of P1 are often 3 to 5 times as high during peak UFP events only 1 meter further away from the road. occasionally P2 values are marginally higher than P1. On average, 1150 (stdev: 722) more particles per cm³ were measured closest to the road (independent of wind direction). (Wilcoxon matched pairs signed ranks test: p<0.005 one-sided test). UFP numbers are higher on the bicycle PM mass is higher is the car

17 Conclusions Methodology validation Sampling height : no effect Sampling direction: no effect (at speeds < 30 km/h) Shock proof set-up possible

18 Conclusions Policy Children & reclining bicycles are not exposed more to UFP than adults riding normal bicycles (quid PM10?) UFP numbers at the cycling track decrease by 6% per meter extra distance from the road - Consequences for planning of cycling tracks along busy roads - Small differences in (horizontal) separation matter - Cycling lane position - Exhaust pipe position - Relative position of cars and cyclists at signalised intersections - Overtaking Small scooters cause the highest UFP peaks

19 Welke taken voeren we nog uit? Een ruimtelijke aspecten analyse Exceptions Attractive environment and high bicycle share Unsafe and unattractive for cyclists, Een on-line enquête en letselregistratie bij regelmatige fietsers

20 GEOGRAPHIE (UCL) Objectifs Décrire et comprendre les variations spatiales du choix du vélo comme mode de transport (navettes) du risque d accident auquel s exposent les navetteurs-cyclistes Variations spatiales des coûts et bénéfices de la pratique du cyclisme lors de la navette Modèles spatiaux descriptifs et prédictifs Niveau d analyse : communes & individus

21 Greg % Navetteurs cyclistes Risque d accident (Nbr. Moyen d accidents / minutes)

22 EXEMPLES POLLUTION (µg/m³) DISTANCES (km) % PERSONNES EN MAUVAISE SANTE PENTES (d )

23 Surfen naar: Surfer sur :

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