Het toenemend belang van de factor vastgoed in de logistiek!

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3 Het toenemend belang van de factor vastgoed in de logistiek! Door, Europees specialist op vlak van ontwikkeling en verhuur van semiindustrieel vastgoed & King Sturge, vastgoedmakelaar

4 Evoluties door de jaren heen Financieel Bouwtechnisch Functioneel Micro- en macro economisch

5 Joost Uwents

6 Financieel Na de outsourcing van diensten (oa logistiek), is nu ook outsourcing van vastgoed aan de orde in combinatie met moeilijker wordende financiering ervan, omwille van IFRS en principe van economisch risico ipv financieel Flexibiliteit in m², duur, regio s, types warehouses, Groei van verscheidenheid en specificiteit van gebouwen

7 Financieel Toenemend belang van gespecialiseerde portefeuille-financiering om financiële- en vastgoedrisico s te kunnen spreiden oa via interessante bevak-formule in België Leasings worden on-balance BTW-implicaties (opslag < - > handling)

8 Bouwtechnisch Van annex-hall aan het einde van de productiehall Over afzonderlijke ruimtes met iets hogere vrije hoogte en loskades

9 Bouwtechnisch Tot gespecialiseerde high-tech gebouwen, voorzien van Supervlakke vloeren Vrije hoogtes v 10, of 20 m Brandbeveiliging (Sprinklersystemen ea) Laadkades Met garanties mbt temperatuurs- en vochtigheidsintervallen Met multi-modale transportverbindingen Al dan niet (semi-)automatisch ingericht en bestuurd

10 Luc Kiebooms King Sturge

11 Drivers of occupier demand Supply chains have become longer the globalisation of supply chains. This reflect the concentration of production in focused factories often in low cost locations (eg Asia Pacific). Distribution and marketing structures have been re-structured. Many large multi-nationals have moved from national distribution/marketing structures to international or pan European structures. As a result, they are channelling imports into Europe via key gateway sea ports (eg Rotterdam and Antwerp) and consolidating their inventory into large international or pan European Distribution Centres. The Single European Market (1992) was a key driver of change. The low countries have emerged as a key location for international and pan European DCs.

12 Some Alternative European Distribution Structures (1) Direct Shipment (2) National Distribution Centres (NDCs) Source Customers Customers Source NDC Customers Customers Source Customers Customers Source NDC Customers Customers (3) Regional European Distribution Structure Customers Source Source RDC RDC Customers Customers Customers (4) Pan-European Distribution Structure Source Source EDC Customers Customers Customers NDC = National Distribution Centre RDC = Regional Distribution Centre (serving a number of countries each) EDC= European Distribution Centre. Central facility for Europe

13 Factors Influencing Distribution Structures Centralised structure Decentralised structure Order lead time (for replenishment) High Low Local market volume Low High Number of global suppliers High Low Value density of product High Low

14 Global Merchandise Export Flows 2001 EU $243.2bn NAFTA Intra $1,417.3bn $176.6bn Intra $637.0bn $237.6bn $178.6bn Intra $722.2bn ASIA $490.6bn $209.1bn

15 Major EU container ports and freight airports Container ports (TEUs millions) Rotterdam (6.096) Hamburg (4.689) Antwerp (4.218) Felixstowe (2.950) Bremen (2.915) Gioia Tauro (2.488) Algeciras (2.152) Genoa (1.530) Le Havre (1.525) Barcelona (1.410) Airports (tonnes) Frankfurt (1.613) Charles de Gaulle (1.479) Heathrow (1.264) Schipol (1.232) Brussels (0.584) Cologne ( 0.458) Copenhagen (0.379) Zurich (0.371) Madrid (0.329) Gatwick, London (0.295)

16 Logistics Trends in the Grocery Retail Sector Post war to 1970s Raw material Supplier Direct to store Retail outlet 1980s Raw material Supplier Retailer depot Retail outlet 1990s Raw material Supplier Consolidation point Retailer depot Retail outlet 2000s Raw material Supplier Consolidation point Retailer depot Retail outlet Source: Adapted from IGD (2003) Retail Logistics The retailer now controls all the transport from supply to store

17 European Contract Logistics Market Share Total Market 40bn 53% 38% 9% Top to 19 Rest Top 10 TNT Logistics Excel Wincanton/P&OTE Danzas Solutions Thiel Hays Tibbett & Britten Christian Salvesen Fiege TDG 11 to 19 Geodis UPS SCS Stef TFE Gist Schenker Dentressangle D.Logistics FM Logistics Kuehne & Nagel Source: Transport Intelligence, July Based on share of contract logistics revenues.

18 EU Enlargement 10 countries are set to join the EU in May 2004: - Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. Longer-term, three other countries have applied to become members: Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. Total GDP of the 10 accession countries is 12% of the current EU15 GDP. The Big Three are Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. Accession countries will increase the landmass of the EU by over a third.

19 EU Enlargement Logistics Impacts More manufacturing will migrate to new EU members suppliers could follow. Retailers will expand into Central/Eastern Europe. Logistics contractors will increase their demand. Enlargement will stimulate logistics restructuring. The main beneficiaries will be the Big Three Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. Next tier could include Slovakia and Slovenia.

20 Central Europe: The Big Three Poland: - Largest economy among new EU entrants (population, 39 million) - Warsaw is dominant market but new development spreading out, eg Lodz, Krakow, Wroclaw and Poznan Czech Republic: - Second largest new EU entrant (population, 10 million) - Prague is the dominant market (25% of national GDP) Hungary: - Third largest new EU entrant (population, 10 million) - Budapest is the dominant market

21 Joost Uwents

22 De toekomst Financiële, bouwtechnische, functionele en micro- en macro economische factoren, waaronder ook zeer belangrijk de demografische factoren, hebben tot gevolg dat de factor vastgoed en de ligging ervan de komende jaren aan belang en invloed zal toenemen binnen het gehele logistieke denken en de bijhorende beslissingen van bedrijven

23 De toekomst Daarbij is het van belang voor een regio als Vlaanderen om te beschikken over een portefeuille van polyvalente, kwalitatief hoogstaande, toegankelijke logistieke gebouwen & sites In combinatie met Een liquide, professionele vastgoedmarkt

24 Enkele voorbeelden ter illustratie

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28 Cargovil II - Vilvoorde

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