1 Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek / Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO-report R 2004/100 Uncertainty assessment of NO x, SO 2 and NH 3 emissions in the Netherlands Laan van Westenenk 501 Postbus AH Apeldoorn The Netherlands T F Date March 2004 Authors René van Gijlswijk Peter Coenen Tinus Pulles Jeroen van der Sluijs (Copernicus Institute, UU) Order no Keywords Intended for Uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo, emission inventory Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu This report is jointly produced and published with: Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Dept. of Science Technology and Society Padualaan 14; 3584 CH Utrecht The Netherlands Report nr. NW&S-E All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published by print, photoprint, microfilm or any other means without the previous written consent of TNO. In case this report was drafted on instructions, the rights and obligations of contracting parties are subject to either the Standard Conditions for Research Instructions given to TNO, or the relevant agreement concluded between the contracting parties. Submitting the report for inspection to parties who have a direct interest is permitted TNO
2 2 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/100
3 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 3 of 49 Contents Acknowledgements Introduction General Goal Project plan Reader Key source analysis and Knowledge Dissemination Introduction Key source analysis Prioritising Knowledge Dissemination Clustering Expert elicitation Uncertainty analysis Data acquisition Dependencies Uncertainty calculations Tier-1 approach Monte Carlo analysis Robustness scenarios Calculation spreadsheet Results Key source analysis Expert elicitation Uncertainty analysis Tier Monte Carlo analysis Robustness of the methodological approach Conclusions and recommendations Literature Authentication...49
4 4 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Appendix 3 Appendix 4 Appendix 5 Appendix 6 Clusters of key-sources Results of expert elicitation Dependencies (in Dutch) Input data Uncertainty assessment in the 2000 emissions of NO x, SO 2 and NH 3 in the Netherlands (according to Dutch sector split) Quick-Scan Onzekerheidsanalyse verzurende stoffen (in Dutch)
5 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 5 of 49 Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank all the members of the taskforces of the Dutch emission inventory, especially the experts who provided the data which were essential for this study. Furthermore special thanks goes out to our colleagues at the RIVM; Mr. van Oorschot and Mr. Janssen who contributed valuable input and comments during the compilation of this report.
6 6 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/100
7 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 7 of Introduction 1.1 General In 2001 the RIVM performed a TIER 1 uncertainty assessment for the emissions of SO 2, NO x and NH 3 in the Netherlands. This assessment was performed on an aggregated emission source. The results were not directly suitable to prioritise cost-effective actions to reduce the uncertainty of emission data in the Netherlands. In the current project the uncertainty assessment is elaborated on the most basic source (source codes) for the year 2000 of the Dutch Emission Inventory. This study comprises: Key sources analysis Quantification of probability density functions (PDFs) by expert elicitation; Assessment of emission data pedigree by expert elicitation; Propagation of data uncertainty in the calculation of the emissions using Monte Carlo simulation; Dissemination of knowledge concerning methods for expert elicitation and uncertainty assessment in the Dutch Emission Inventory circuit. The project was commissioned by the RIVM to a consortium of TNO Environment, Energy and Process Innovation and the University of Utrecht, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation. 1.2 Goal Two goals were formulated for the project: 1. Dissemination, within the Emission Inventory circuit, of knowledge on the approach on uncertainty analyses (including expert elicitation). In this way awareness of the compilers of the emission figures is raised with regard to uncertainty and will contribute to quality improvement in this regard. 2. Providing a transparent and uniform foundation of information on the Dutch emission data for the environmental theme acidification, including a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the uncertainties in emission estimates. The uncertainties associated with the Dutch acidification data are obtained by elicitation of sector-specific experts. Knowing the social and technological processes behind the emissions and the background data used for calculation of the emissions, the experts are able to draw a probability distribution function for emissions and activity data in their sector. The uncertainty of the emissions of individual activities propagates into the uncertainty of the total emission. This propagation can be calculated in several ways. In
8 8 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/ RIVM conducted a study on acidification data, using the IPCC error propagation calculation technique, also called Tier-1. This study was the starting point of the current project. Furthermore the Monte Carlo based Tier-2 method can be used. This enables implementation of PDFs other than normal distributions, and provides for implementing dependencies among emission inventory items. In this study, both Tier-1 and Tier-2 analyses are made for the emission data for the year Project plan The project consisted of five chronological steps: Project step Tasks Org. 1. Preparation Quick scan* (RIVM) Key source Analysis (TNO) RIVM/TNO 2. Briefing on uncertainty estimation and quality assurance Briefing for experts to be questioned and other individuals from the Emission Inventory circuit (UU) 3. Expert elicitation Questioning the taskforce** experts (UU) UU 4. Uncertainty analysis Tier-1 and Monte Carlo analysis on uncertainty data UU TNO 5. Report Analysis of the results UU/TNO * According to Guidance for uncertainty scanning and assessment at RIVM (see Appendix 6, in Dutch) ** group of experts responsible for estimating Dutch emission figures In the final phase of this study the Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was used to calculate the uncertainty of the Dutch emissions of acidifying compounds split up according the Dutch sector split. The results of these calculations are given in Annex Reader Chapter 2 and 3 describe the followed approach for the key source identification and the expert elicitation respectively. The uncertainty analysis is discussed in chapter 4. The results are presented in chapter 5.
9 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 9 of Key source analysis and Knowledge Dissemination 2.1 Introduction The next three paragraphs elaborate on the approach in carrying out the key source analysis, expert elicitation and the preparation of the uncertainty analysis respectively. 2.2 Key source analysis The key source analysis on the contribution to emission totals for 2000 and the emission between is based on techniques described in chapter 6 of the IPCC report Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories  and the Atmospheric Emission Inventory Guidebook, Third Edition , part B: Methodology chapter Good Practice Guidance for CLRTAP Emission Inventories. 2.3 Prioritising The basis for the key source analysis is the Dutch national emission inventory. Data on emission of NO x, SO 2 and NH 3 in both 1990 and 2000 were used 1. We used the most detailed for the sources from the emission inventory. This means that every unique source in the inventory (represented by the so called RAPCODE) was included in the analysis. Furthermore the sources were differentiated per activity rate (fuel use or activity data). The unique items in the key source analysis in this report will be referred to as source-activity combination. No dependencies between the emission estimates from different source-activity combinations were assumed at this stage of specifying the key sources. In the Dutch environmental policy the emissions for SO 2, NO x and NH 3 are integrated to the so called acidification equivalents (AE). Therefore the results of the key source analysis for the individual components were combined to yield a key source analysis for AE. For each of the source-activity combinations an acidification equivalent (AE) was calculated based on the emissions of NOx, SO 2 and NH 3 due to this source. This was done for both 1990 and Next, the contribution to the > These are the emission s as estimated in the 2001/2002 inventory round. They are not equal to the current estimates for 2000 due to recalculation of the emissions.
10 10 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 was calculated for every source-activity combination, using the following formula from  : T x,t = L x,t E (( x,t E E x,t x,0 Et E0 ) ( E t )) In which: t (base year) T x,t Trend assessment (contribution to the total ) L x,t Level assessment (contribution to the total emission in 2000) E x,t, E x,0 Emission in 2000 and 1990 respectively for activity x E t, E 0 Total emission in 2000 and 1990 respectively The results of this calculation 1 for all source-activity combinations were listed in two ways: The source-activity combinations which were responsible for 95% of the total AE emission in 2000; The source-activity combinations which were responsible for 95% of the in AE emissions from 1990 to The two lists were combined resulting in a listing of 92 source-activity combinations which were identified as key sources (of a total of 419 source-activity combinations in the inventory contributing to acidifying emissions). 2.4 Knowledge Dissemination The list of key sources was presented during the briefing on uncertainty estimation and quality assurance in the fall of The goal of the briefing was to provide the experts with a basic understanding of theory and concepts of uncertainty prior to the individual expert elicitation interviews. The briefing dealt with state of the art in uncertainty assessment, the representation of uncertainty by (subjective) probability density functions, a brief introduction in distribution theory with a focus on normal, uniform, triangular and lognormal distributions and conditions under which each of these can be used, the importance of covariance in the propagation of uncertainty, and the concept of data pedigree. Further the experts were made familiar with the procedure for expert elicitation used in this project. This procedure is outlined in section 3. Special attention was paid to creating awareness of a range of pitfalls in expert elicitation known from the literature (table 2.1). Ways to avoid these pitfalls during the elicitation process were discussed. 1 The Key Source Analysis has been carried out in a spreadsheet, which selects the 95% largest contributors to the total AE emission and the 95% largest contributors to the of 1990 to 2000 for acidification equivalents. The spreadsheet is made available to the RIVM and the resulting key source list is included in Appendix 1.
11 TNO-MEP R 2004/ of 49 Table 2.1 Common pitfalls in expert elicitation [4;5] Pitfall / bias Anchoring Availability Coherence Overconfidence Representativeness Satisficing Unstated assumptions Description Assessments are often unduly weighted toward the conventional value, or first value given, or to the findings of previous assessments in making an assessment. Thus, they are said to be 'anchored' to this value. This bias refers to the tendency to give too much weight to readily available data or recent experience (which may not be representative of the required data) in making assessments. Events are considered more likely when many scenarios can be created that lead to the event, or if some scenarios are particularly coherent. Conversely, events are considered unlikely when scenarios can not be imagined. Thus, probabilities tend to be assigned more on the basis of one's ability to tell coherent stories than on the basis of intrinsic probability of occurrence. Experts tend to over-estimate their ability to make quantitative judgements. This can sometimes be seen when an estimate of a quantity and its uncertainty are given, and it is retrospectively discovered that the true value of the quantity lies outside the interval. This is difficult for an individual to guard against; but a general awareness of the tendency can be important. This is the tendency to place more confidence in a single piece of information that is considered representative of a process than in a larger body of more generalized information. This refers to a common tendency to search through a limited number of familiar solution options and to pick from among them. Comprehensiveness is sacrificed for expediency in this case. A subject's responses are typically conditional on various unstated assumptions. The effect of these assumptions is often to constrain the degree of uncertainty reflected in the resulting estimate of a quantity. Stating assumptions explicitly can help reflect more of a subject's total uncertainty. The power-point presentation used for the briefing (in Dutch) is available from the authors.
12 12 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/ Clustering Based on information of the experts the gross list of key sources was clustered. A cluster is defined as a number of source-activity combinations with the same common ground. The common ground can for instance be an identical basic statistical data set or an identical emission estimation methodology used for all sources in the cluster. For example all emission figures for the agricultural combustion emissions are based on the fuel use data for the different types of fuels. These fuel data have all the same uncertainty and can thus be treated as one item, thereby capturing dependencies between activities. The advantage of this procedure is that the uncertainty for a larger number of sources (including non key sources) can be elaborated with the same elicitation effort. The clustering was done in such a way, that all 92 source-activity combinations selected in the previous step were included. The clusters cover 238 source-activity combinations (of a total of 419). Every selected cluster was assigned to one or more sector experts who participated in the expert elicitation.
13 TNO-MEP R 2004/ of Expert elicitation Expert elicitation is a structured process to elicit subjective judgements from experts. It is widely used in quantitative uncertainty analyses in cases where there are insufficient statistics or reliable data-sets available to quantify uncertainties. Usually the subjective judgement is represented as a subjective probability density function. Several elicitation protocols have been developed but the most widely used on which most of the others have built is the Stanford Protocol [6;7]. Expert elicitation can also be used to elicit subjective judgements on other aspects of uncertainty than the part that can be quantified and represented as a PDF. Risbey et al.  have developed and applied a protocol to elicit sources of error, conceivable sources of motivational bias, parameter pedigree and PDFs all together in one protocol . This protocol was a starting point for this project. The steps involved in the expert elicitation interviews, aimed at eliciting probability density functions (PDFs) to represent uncertainty in data, and pedigree to represent strength of the data are outlined below: Explaining the elicitation procedure Explain to the expert the nature of the problem at hand and the analysis being conducted. Give the expert insight on how their judgements will be used. Discuss the methodology and explain the further structure of the elicitation procedure. Discuss the issue of motivational biases and encourage the respondent to make explicit any motivational bias that may distort his judgement. Discuss strengths and weaknesses in the knowledge base In this step the expert is asked to comment on and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the knowledge base for the quantity at hand. Elicit pedigree scores To further structure the assessment of strengths and weaknesses in the knowledge base, a pedigree assessment is carried out. Pedigree analysis is a part of the NUSAP system (Numeral, Unit Spread Assessment, Pedigree for uncertainty assessment and communication) . It conveys an evaluative account of the production process of a quantity and indicates different aspects of the underpinning of the numbers and scientific status of the knowledge base. Pedigree is expressed by means of a set of pedigree criteria to assess these different aspects. Criteria used in this study are proxy, empirical basis, methodological rigor and degree of validation [6;7]. These criteria are used as indicators for data- and parameter strength. Assessment of pedigree involves qualitative expert judgement. To minimise arbitrariness and subjectivity in measuring strength, a pedigree matrix is used to code qualitative expert judgements for each criterion into a discrete numeral scale from 0 (weak) to 4 (strong) with linguistic descriptions (modes) of each on the scale (Table 3.1). Note that these linguistic descriptions are mainly meant to pro-
14 14 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 vide guidance in attributing scores to each of the criteria for a given parameter. It is not possible to capture all aspects that an expert may consider in scoring a pedigree in a single phrase. Therefore a pedigree matrix should be applied with some flexibility and creativity. The pedigree matrix used here is documented and discussed in Risbey et al, Table 3.1 Pedigree matrix for emission monitoring. Note that the columns are independent  Proxy Empirical basis Methodological rigour Validation 4 Exact measure Large sample of direct measurements Best available practice Compared with independent measurements of same variable 3 Good fit or measure Small sample of direct measurements Reliable method commonly accepted Compared with independent measurements of closely related variable 2 Well correlated Modelled/derived data Acceptable method limited consensus on reliability Compared with measurements not independent 1 Weak correlation Educated guesses / rule of thumb estimates Preliminary methods, unknown reliability Weak / indirect validation 0 Not clearly related Crude speculation No discernable rigour No validation Structuring In this step a unit and scale are chosen that is familiar to the respondent in order to characterize the selected variable. Elicit extremes In this step the expert is asked to state the extreme minimum and maximum conceivable values for the variable. Extreme assessment Ask the respondent to try to envision ways or situations in which the extremes might be broader than he stated. Ask the respondent to describe such a situation if he can think of one, and allow revision of the extreme values accordingly in that event.
15 TNO-MEP R 2004/ of 49 Assessment of knowledge and selection of distribution Before letting the respondent specify more detailed information about the distribution it is important that this be done in a way that is consistent with the of knowledge about the variable. In particular, we seek to avoid specifying more about the distribution shape than is actually known. A heuristic for choosing the shape for a distribution is given in table 3.2. Table 3.2 Distribution Heuristic for choosing the shape of distribution. Use when Uniform Minimum and maximum value are fixed Knowledge lacks to decide which values in range are more plausible than others (or) All values in range are equally plausible Triangular Minimum and maximum are fixed You can specify a most likely value in that range Additional details on distribution are unknown Normal Some value of the uncertain variable is the most likely Uncertain variable could as likely be above mean as it could be below mean Uncertain variable more likely to be in vicinity of the mean than far away Physical quantities > 0, σ should be < 30% Lognormal Quantity cannot be negative Distribution is positively skewed Uncertainty can be expressed as multiplicative order of magnitude (factor 2) (or) Probability of obtaining extreme large values Coefficient of variation > 30% Custom You have good information or good arguments to choose a different shape Specification of distribution If the respondent selected a uniform distribution you do not need to elicit any further values. If the respondent selected a triangular distribution, let him estimate the mode. If he chooses another shape for the distribution (e.g. normal), you have to elicit either parameters (e.g. mean and standard deviation for normal distribution) or values for for instance the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles. Let the respondent briefly justify his choice of distribution if other than uniform or triangular. Check Verify the probability distribution constructed (e.g. on a laptop computer) against the expert's beliefs, to make sure that the distribution correctly represents those beliefs.
16 16 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 Discuss covariance issues The parameters and data in emission monitoring need not be independent. Some quantities may be related through common processes and may covary with one another as a result. This is important for the Monte Carlo analysis, since if we sample one variable at one extreme of its distribution, this may require that we sample other variables from a specific part of their distribution in order to preserve the relationship between the variables. This dependency can affect the final quantitative result.
17 TNO-MEP R 2004/ of Uncertainty analysis 4.1 Data acquisition The uncertainty analysis in this study is based on techniques described in chapter 6 of the IPCC report Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories . For every source-activity combination within the clusters of the Key Source Analysis, an uncertainty profile is created, which consists of a lower value, an upper value, a code for the probability distribution function (PDF) and a comment line (explaining dependencies between sources). This is outlined in paragraph 4.3. The experts provided uncertainty data for either the emission aggregate (EM) or the emission factor (EF) and activity rate (AR) based on their expert judgement. These data were used for the uncertainty assessment. For some source-activity combinations no (full) expert data were provided; in these cases, the missing figures are completed with default data. This procedure is illustrated in figure 4.1. Source-activity combination Not elicitated 1 expert elicitated 2 experts elicitated Default uncertainty Expert* Smallest uncertainty among experts* Uncertainty profile * supplemented with default data when incomplete Figure 4.1 Decision diagram for uncertainty data acquisition
18 18 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/100 We are aware of the fact that the choice to use the smallest uncertainty in case of 2 experts elicitated creates a bias towards underestimating uncertainty. This is justified by the fact that the use of default uncertainties for not elicitated creates a bias towards overestimation. The choice whether to use separate uncertainties for AR and EF or the uncertainty for the emission aggregate only, is based on the availability of expert data. Whenever an expert has given a PDF for either AR or EF or both, separate uncertainties are used (from experts, and when needed these were completed with default uncertainty data). Otherwise, the PDF for the EM is used. The default uncertainty data were based on the Good Practice Guidance for CLRTAP Emission Inventories draft chapter for the ENECE Corinair Guidebook on Emission Inventories , which provides an uncertainty class per SNAP category (Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution). For this purpose, every sourceactivity combination was linked to a SNAP category by TNO. The uncertainties per substance per category can be found in table 4.1 and 4.2. Table 4.1 Uncertainty classes per substance per SNAP category Code Main SNAP category Uncertainty class SO 2 NO x NH 3 1 Public power, cogeneration and district heating A B n.a. 2 Commercial, institutional & residential combustion B C n.a. 3 Industrial combustion A B n.a. 4 Industrial processes B C E 5 Extraction & distribution of fossil fuels C C n.a. 6 Solvent use n.a. n.a. n.a. 7 Road transport C C E 8 Other mobile sources and machinery C D n.a. 9 Waste treatment B B n.a. 10 Agriculture activities n.a. D D 11 Nature D D E - Non key sources C C C n.a.: not applicable The classes in table 4.1 are intended for use on emission aggregates only. In this study, we used these uncertainty classes also for the emission factors (EF). For the activity rates (AR), we chose to use the uncertainty classes for NO x, which is considered a worst case scenario. The reason for this arbitrary choice is the fact that for NO x all relevant SNAP categories are covered and that the use of the uncertainty classes for SO 2 were reckoned to be too optimistic. In table 4.2 the (derived) default 95%-uncertainty intervals per uncertainty class are given for EM, as well as for AR and EF. These intervals were used in this study for
19 TNO-MEP R 2004/ of 49 all sources where no expert PDFs could be established. For the non key sources we used the uncertainty classes for EM. Table 4.2 Default uncertainty classes (half 95%-confidence intervals) Class Typical error range (from ) Half 95%-confidence interval (EM) * Half 95%-confidence interval (AR and EF) * A 10 to 30 % 20% (10 %) 15% (5 %) B 20 to 60 % 40% (20 %) 30% (15 %) C 50 to 150 % 100% (50 %) 70% (35 %) D 100 to 300 % 200% (100 %) 130% (70 %) E order of magnitude 1000% (1000 %) 405% (405 %) * Between brackets, values used for NO x default uncertainty in scenarios 3 and 6 (table 4.5) to emulate the assumed current Dutch knowledge on emission figures (based on measurements for major sources). These values correspond with the lowest value of the default error ranges for the calculation of the confidence intervals. To derive the numbers in the last column of table 4.2 we used the fact that the uncertainty of the emission aggregate (EM=AR EF) can be easily expressed in terms of the uncertainties in AR and EF, if the latter uncertainties are independent: CV EM = CVEF + CVAR + CVAR CVEF. Here CV denotes the coefficient of variation, which is defined as the ratio CV = σ / µ of the spread σ and the mean µ. From this relation it can be easily deduced that - in case CV AR and CV EF are equal - they are equal to CVAR = CVEF = (1 2 + CVEM ) 1. For CV EM equal to 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 or 5, this will lead to CV AR equal to 0.07, 0.14, 0.34, 0.64, or 2.02, which refers to uncertainty intervals (2 σ) of approximately 15%, 30%, 70%, 130% and 405%, as indicated in table 4.2. We assumed a log-normal probability distribution function for the default uncertainty, which prevents the occurrence of negative values.
20 20 of 49 TNO-MEP R 2004/ Dependencies The activity of a source is used for the emissions for all three acidifying emissions from that source. This is for instance the case in some combustion processes. In the uncertainty analysis this is called a dependency. Furthermore, based on the expert elicitation some dependencies between different source-activity combinations were detected. In most cases these can be described as complementary dependencies. These are characterized by the fact that the sum of the activity s from different sources is limited to a maximum. The dependencies that could be implemented within the scope of this investigation and on the of source activity combinations are summarized in table 4.3. Table 4.3 Dependencies implemented in the uncertainty assessment Code Type Clusters Effect on Description C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 Complementary Complementary Complementary Complementary Complementary 40A AR The total emission can be affected by shifts among paper industry, basic chemicals industry and food industry. The three categories have different emission factors. 9, 10 AR Dependency between the AR of vans running on diesel, gasoline, gasoline with catalytic converter and LPG. Total diesel kilometres are calculated from the results of other fuels. 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 15 14, 15, 16, 17, 4, 6, 8 C6 Cascade 1lb, 2lb, 3lb, 4lb, 5lb, 7lb, 8lb, 10lb AR AR Dependency between the AR of diesel vehicles. Van kilometres are known (see C2), trucks with and without trailer are sampled, and the amount of kilometres by personal cars is calculated from data for the other vehicle types. Dependency between the AR of personal cars running on diesel, gasoline, gasoline with catalytic converter and LPG. Total km by gasoline cars with catalytic converter is calculated out of the other fuels. 5, 12, 13 AR The activity of mobile machines for agriculture, building sector and other sectors is summed up to 100%. NH 3 MAM nitrogen model. The NH3 emission of animal housing systems, storage, use (and eventually grazing) sums up to 100% for each animal species. All but one applied dependencies are complementary, which means that emissions or activities from a set of source activity combinations add up to a given amount (100%). For instance, the total of personal car kilometers is assumed to be well known, while the division over the various fuels is subject to uncertainty. In this example, the car kilometers for diesel, LPG and gasoline without catalyst have a PDF. The number of kilometers for gasoline with catalyst is the only unknown value, and is therefore calculated. In general, the following rule is applied: C = 100% A B, where C is the activity with the largest absolute emission.
FOR DUTCH STUDENTS! ENGLISH VERSION NEXT PAGE Toets Inleiding Kansrekening 1 8 februari 2010 Voeg aan het antwoord van een opgave altijd het bewijs, de berekening of de argumentatie toe. Als je een onderdeel
NAVIJVEN MINILAMPJES OM ZELF TE MAKEN KERSTFIGUREN UIT DE LAPPENMAND VOOR DE KINDERSSALOON EN COWBOYS VAN LOLLYSTOKJES KAMERBREED BOEKENREK VOOR EEN SMAL BUDGETGEBAKKEN KOEKFIGUURTJES HANGEN WE IN DE KERSTBOOM
Process Mining and audit support within financial services KPMG IT Advisory 18 June 2014 Agenda INTRODUCTION APPROACH 3 CASE STUDIES LEASONS LEARNED 1 APPROACH Process Mining Approach Five step program
FOR DUTCH STUDENTS! ENGLISH VERSION NEXT PAGE Toets Inleiding Kansrekening 1 7 februari 2011 Voeg aan het antwoord van een opgave altijd het bewijs, de berekening of de argumentatie toe. Als je een onderdeel
Travel Survey Questionnaires Prot of Rotterdam and TU Delft, 16 June, 2009 Introduction To improve the accessibility to the Rotterdam Port and the efficiency of the public transport systems at the Rotterdam
CHROMA STANDAARDREEKS Chroma-onderzoeken Een chroma geeft een beeld over de kwaliteit van bijvoorbeeld een bodem of compost. Een chroma bestaat uit 4 zones. Uit elke zone is een bepaald kwaliteitsaspect
167 Appendix A: List of variables with corresponding questionnaire items (in English) used in chapter 2 Task clarity 1. I understand exactly what the task is 2. I understand exactly what is required of
Pesten onder Leerlingen met Autisme Spectrum Stoornissen op de Middelbare School: de Participantrollen en het Verband met de Theory of Mind. Bullying among Students with Autism Spectrum Disorders in Secondary
FOR DUTCH STUDENTS! ENGLISH VERSION NEXT PAGE Toets Inleiding Kansrekening 1 22 februari 2013 Voeg aan het antwoord van een opgave altijd het bewijs, de berekening of de argumentatie toe. Als je een onderdeel
FOR DUTCH STUDENTS! ENGLISH VERSION NEXT PAGE Tentamen Analyse 8 december 203, duur 3 uur. Voeg aan het antwoord van een opgave altijd het bewijs, de berekening of de argumentatie toe. Als jeeen onderdeel
The Dutch mortgage market at a cross road? The problematic relationship between supply of and demand for residential mortgages 22/03/2013 Housing market in crisis House prices down Number of transactions
Invloed van het aantal kinderen op de seksdrive en relatievoorkeur M. Zander MSc. Eerste begeleider: Tweede begeleider: dr. W. Waterink drs. J. Eshuis Oktober 2014 Faculteit Psychologie en Onderwijswetenschappen
Interaction Design for the Semantic Web Lynda Hardman http://www.cwi.nl/~lynda/courses/usi08/ CWI, Semantic Media Interfaces Presentation of Google results: text 2 1 Presentation of Google results: image
Settings for the C100BRS4 MAC Address Spoofing with cable Internet. General: Please use the latest firmware for the router. The firmware is available on http://www.conceptronic.net! Use Firmware version
LDA Topic Modeling Informa5ekunde als hulpwetenschap 9 maart 2015 LDA Voor de pauze: Wat is LDA? Wat kan je er mee? Hoe werkt het (Gibbs sampling)? Na de pauze Achterliggende concepten à Dirichlet distribu5e
Voorbereiding pilot studie Power for Teens voor tieners met overgewicht en angstige en depressieve klachten. Bouwman, Miranda; Tuinstra, Jolanda; Visser, Marieke; Cox, R.F.A IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised
www.iuscommune.eu Dear Ius Commune PhD researchers, You are kindly invited to attend the Ius Commune Amsterdam Masterclass for PhD researchers, which will take place on Thursday 16 June 2016. During this
B1 Woordkennis: Spelling Bestuderen Inleiding Op B1 niveau gaan we wat meer aandacht schenken aan spelling. Je mag niet meer zoveel fouten maken als op A1 en A2 niveau. We bespreken een aantal belangrijke
1 Intercultural Mediation through the Internet Hans Verrept Intercultural mediation and policy support unit 2 Structure of the presentation - What is intercultural mediation through the internet? - Why
Opgaven in Nederlands. Alle opgaven hebben gelijk gewicht. Opgave 1 Gegeven is een kasstroom x = (x 0, x 1,, x n ). Veronderstel dat de contante waarde van deze kasstroom gegeven wordt door P. De bijbehorende
CSRQ Center Rapport over onderwijsondersteunende organisaties: Samenvatting voor onderwijsgevenden Laatst bijgewerkt op 25 november 2008 Nederlandse samenvatting door TIER op 5 juli 2011 Onderwijsondersteunende
De Relatie tussen (Over)Gewicht en Seksdrive bij Mannen en Vrouwen The Relationship between (Over)Weight and Sex Drive in Men and Women Mandy M. de Nijs Eerste begeleider: Dr. W. Waterink Tweede begeleider:
De Samenhang tussen Dagelijkse Stress en Depressieve Symptomen en de Mediërende Invloed van Controle en Zelfwaardering The Relationship between Daily Hassles and Depressive Symptoms and the Mediating Influence
Policy Aspects of Storm Surge Warning Systems Ir. Herman Dijk Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Contents Water in the Netherlands What kind of information and models do we need? Flood System
Ontpopping Veel deelnemende bezoekers zijn dit jaar nog maar één keer in het Van Abbemuseum geweest. De vragenlijst van deze mensen hangt Orgacom in een honingraatpatroon. Bezoekers die vaker komen worden
Assessing writing through objectively scored tests: a study on validity Hiske Feenstra Cito, The Netherlands Outline Research project Objective writing tests Evaluation of objective writing tests Research
FOR DUTCH STUDENTS! ENGLISH VERSION NEXT PAGE Tentamen Analyse 6 januari 203, duur 3 uur. Voeg aan het antwoord van een opgave altijd het bewijs, de berekening of de argumentatie toe. Als je een onderdeel
Socio-economic situation of long-term flexworkers CBS Microdatagebruikersmiddag The Hague, 16 May 2013 Siemen van der Werff www.seo.nl - email@example.com - +31 20 525 1630 Discussion topics and conclusions
De Relatie tussen Betrokkenheid bij Pesten en Welbevinden en de Invloed van Sociale Steun en Discrepantie The Relationship between Involvement in Bullying and Well-Being and the Influence of Social Support
Psychometrische Eigenschappen van de Youth Anxiety Measure for DSM-5 (YAM-5) Psychometric Properties of the Youth Anxiety Measure for DSM-5 (YAM-5) Hester A. Lijphart Eerste begeleider: Dr. E. Simon Tweede
COGNITIEVE DISSONANTIE EN ROKERS Gezondheidsgedrag als compensatie voor de schadelijke gevolgen van roken COGNITIVE DISSONANCE AND SMOKERS Health behaviour as compensation for the harmful effects of smoking
AN URBAN PLAYGROUND 2005 Het vraagstuk van de openbare ruimte in naoorlogse stadsuitbreidingen, in dit geval Van Eesteren s Amsterdam West, is speels benaderd door het opknippen van een traditioneel stadsplein
pagina 1 van 5 Kunt u deze nieuwsbrief niet goed lezen? Bekijk dan de online versie Nieuwsbrief NRGD Editie 11 Newsletter NRGD Edition 11 17 MAART 2010 Het register is nu opengesteld! Het Nederlands Register
(for Dutch go to page 4) How to install and use dictionaries on the ICARUS Illumina HD (E652BK) The Illumina HD offers dictionary support for StarDict dictionaries.this is a (free) open source dictionary
Seksdrive, Stresscoping en Extrinsieke Ambitie : De Verschillen tussen Mannen en Vrouwen Sexdrive, Stresscoping and Extrinsic Ambition : The Differences between Men and Women Karine Garcia Eerste begeleider:
De Rol van Zelfregulatie, Motivatie en Eigen Effectiviteitsverwachting op het Volhouden van Sporten en de Invloed van Egodepletie, Gewoonte en Geslacht The Role of Selfregulation, Motivation and Self-efficacy
1 25/2/2016 Biocide CLOSED CIRCUIT 2 Regulatory background and scope Biocidal products regulation (EU) nr. 528/2012 (BPR), art. 19 (4): A biocidal product shall not be authorised for making available on
De Effecten van Informeel Werkplekleren op Duurzame Inzetbaarheid in de Nederlandse Maakindustrie The effects of Informal Workplace Learning on Employability in the Dutch manufacturing sector Jochem H.
WORKING P A P E R Reliability Ratio s voor het Goederenvervoer Eindrapport MARCO KOUWENHOVEN, GERARD DE JONG, PIET RIETVELD WR-274-AVV June 2005 Rapport voor Rijkswaterstaat Adviesdienst Verkeer en Vervoer
Knelpunten in Zelfstandig Leren: Zelfregulerend leren, Stress en Uitstelgedrag bij HRM- Studenten van Avans Hogeschool s-hertogenbosch Bottlenecks in Independent Learning: Self-Regulated Learning, Stress
Quality requirements concerning the packaging of oak lumber of (09.09.14) Content: 1. Requirements on sticks 2. Requirements on placing sticks 3. Requirements on construction pallets 4. Stick length and
FRAME XS UPRIGHT BASE PLATE UPRIGHT HORIZONTAL PROFILE DIAGONAL PROFILE DESCRIPTION A vertical structure consisting of 2 uprights, joined by a system of bracing profiles, and base plates intended to support
1 Alcohol policy in Belgium: recent developments Kurt Doms, Head Drug Unit DG Health Care FPS Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment www.health.belgium.be/drugs Meeting Alcohol Policy Network 26th November
De Bijdrage van Opleiding Ouders, Beroep Ouders en Sociaal-economische Status in de Voorspelling van het Intelligentieniveau van het Kind. The Value of Parental Education, Parental Occupation and Socioeconomic
Examenreglement Opleidingen/ Examination Regulations Wilde Wijze Vrouw, Klara Adalena August 2015 For English translation of our Examination rules, please scroll down. Please note that the Dutch version
Lichamelijke factoren als voorspeller voor psychisch en lichamelijk herstel bij anorexia nervosa Physical factors as predictors of psychological and physical recovery of anorexia nervosa Liesbeth Libbers
SLACHTOFFER CYBERPESTEN, COPING, GEZONDHEIDSKLACHTEN, DEPRESSIE Cyberpesten: de implicaties voor gezondheid en welbevinden van slachtoffers en het modererend effect van coping Cyberbullying: the implications
Innovative SUMP-Process in Northeast-Brabant #polis14 Northeast-Brabant: a region in the Province of Noord-Brabant Innovative Poly SUMP 20 Municipalities Province Rijkswaterstaat Several companies Schools
Running head: BREAKFAST, CONSCIENTIOUSNESS AND MENTAL HEALTH 1 The Role of Breakfast Diversity and Conscientiousness in Depression and Anxiety De Rol van Gevarieerd Ontbijten en Consciëntieusheid in Angst
LinkedInprofielen en Persoonlijkheid LinkedIn Profiles and personality Lonneke Akkerman Open Universiteit Naam student: Lonneke Akkerman Studentnummer: 850455126 Cursusnaam en code: S57337 Empirisch afstudeeronderzoek:
The role of mobility in higher education for future employability Jim Allen Overview Results of REFLEX/HEGESCO surveys, supplemented by Dutch HBO-Monitor Study migration Mobility during and after HE Effects
Digital municipal services for entrepreneurs Smart Cities Meeting Amsterdam October 20th 2009 Business Contact Centres Project frame Mystery Shopper Research 2006: Assessment services and information for
Hoe gaan we het in Groningen doen? De Energiekoepel van de Provincie Groningen Froombosch Frans N. Stokman firstname.lastname@example.org 28 mei 2013 Hoe realiseren wij duurzaamheid? Decentrale duurzame
De Relatie tussen Werkdruk, Pesten op het Werk, Gezondheidsklachten en Verzuim The Relationship between Work Pressure, Mobbing at Work, Health Complaints and Absenteeism Agnes van der Schuur Eerste begeleider:
Verschillen in het Gebruik van Geheugenstrategieën en Leerstijlen tussen Leeftijdsgroepen Differences in the Use of Memory Strategies and Learning Styles between Age Groups Rik Hazeu Eerste begeleider:
Het Effect van Verschil in Sociale Invloed van Ouders en Vrienden op het Alcoholgebruik van Adolescenten. The Effect of Difference in Peer and Parent Social Influences on Adolescent Alcohol Use. Nadine
WHAT IS LITTLE GEM? Quick scan method to evaluate your applied (educational) game (light validation) 1. Standardized questionnaires Validated scales from comprehensive GEM (Game based learning Evaluation
A2 Workshops Woordkennis 1 A2 Workshops Woordkennis 1 A2 Woordkennis 1 Bestuderen Hoe leer je 2000 woorden? Als je een nieuwe taal wilt spreken en schrijven, heb je vooral veel nieuwe woorden nodig. Je
MATEN & INFORMATIE I.S.T.C. Intelligent Saving Temperature Controler Deze unieke modulerende zender, als enige ter wereld, verlaagt het energieverbruik aanzienlijk. Het werkt in combinatie met de energy
De samenwerking tussen verzekeringsartsen en arbeidsdeskundigen binnen de Wajong teams betreffende ASS Engbers, C. IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if
FOR DUTCH STUDENTS! ENGLISH VERSION NEXT PAGES Tentamen Inleiding Kansrekening 1 27 maart 2013 Voeg aan het antwoord van een opgave altijd het bewijs, de berekening of de argumentatie toe. Als je een onderdeel
Survey on lending and current accounts for SMEs April 014 GfK 014 Survey on lending and current accounts for SMEs April 014 1 Table of contents 1. Management Summary. Research design 3. Research findings
QUICK GUIDE C Het beheren van mijn Tungsten Network Portal account NL 1 Manage my Tungsten Network Portal account EN 14 Version 0.9 (June 2014) Per May 2014 OB10 has changed its name to Tungsten Network
De L.Net s88sd16-n wordt via één van de L.Net aansluitingen aangesloten op de LocoNet aansluiting van de centrale, bij een Intellibox of Twin-Center is dat de LocoNet-T aansluiting. L.Net s88sd16-n aansluitingen
Het Effect van Voortgangsfeedback aan Behandelaars op de Uitkomsten van Psychologische Behandelingen; een Pilot Onderzoek The Effect of Progress Feedback to Therapists on Psychological Treatment Outcome;
Het Effect van de Kanker Nazorg Wijzer* op Werkgerelateerde Problematiek en Kwaliteit van Leven bij Werkende Ex-Kankerpatiënten The Effect of the Kanker Nazorg Wijzer* on Work-related Problems and Quality
1 Intercultural mediation in health care in the EU: theory and practice Hans Verrept Intercultural mediation and policy support unit 2 Overview of the presentation 1. Policy issues 2. Why do we need medical
*3745107457* Cambridge International Examinations Cambridge International General Certificate of Secondary Education DUTCH 0515/03 Paper 3 Speaking Role Play Card One 1 March 30 April 2015 Approx. 15 minutes
ARTIST Assessment and Review Tool for Innovation Systems of Technologies Koen Schoots, Michiel Hekkenberg, Bert Daniëls, Ton van Dril Agentschap NL: Joost Koch, Dick Both Petten 24 September 2012 www.ecn.nl
Determinanten en Barrières van Seksuele Patiëntenvoorlichting aan Kankerpatiënten door Oncologieverpleegkundigen Determinants and Barriers of Providing Sexual Health Care to Cancer Patients by Oncology
QUICK GUIDE B Registratie- en activeringsproces voor de Factuurstatus Service NL 1 Registration and activation process for the Invoice Status Service EN 11 Version 0.14 (July 2015) Per May 2014 OB10 has
Introduction Henk Schwietert Evalan develops, markets and sells services that use remote monitoring and telemetry solutions. Our Company Evalan develops hard- and software to support these services: mobile
Welke functies moeten ingevuld worden? De herziene Wod van papier naar praktijk! Jan-Bas Prins 17 juni 2014 Relevante documenten Europa 2010/63/EU EC Implementation, interpretation and terminology of Directive
liniled Cast Joint liniled Gietmof liniled is een hoogwaardige, flexibele LED strip. Deze flexibiliteit zorgt voor een zeer brede toepasbaarheid. liniled kan zowel binnen als buiten in functionele en decoratieve
S e v e n P h o t o s f o r O A S E K r i j n d e K o n i n g Even with the most fundamental of truths, we can have big questions. And especially truths that at first sight are concrete, tangible and proven
Consumer survey on personal savings accounts April 04 GfK 04 Consumer survey on personal savings accounts April 04 Table of contents. Management Summary. Research design. Research findings GfK 04 Consumer
The downside up? A study of factors associated with a successful course of treatment for adolescents in secure residential care Annemiek T. Harder Studies presented in this thesis and the printing of this
74 IDENTITEIT IN DE METHODE? ONDERZOEK DOOR EEN LERAAR IN OPLEIDING Bram de Muynck en Esther Langerak 75 Van lectoraten wordt gevraagd om ook studenten te betrekken bij onderzoek. Dit gebeurt bij het lectoraat
Mentaal Weerbaar Blauw de invloed van stereotypen over etnische minderheden cynisme en negatieve emoties op de mentale weerbaarheid van politieagenten begeleiders: dr. Anita Eerland & dr. Arjan Bos dr.
Biseksualiteit: de Onzichtbare Sociale Identiteit met Zichtbare Gezondheidsgevolgen Bisexuality: the Invisible Social Identity with Visible Health Consequences Maria Verbeek Eerste begeleidster: dr. N.
Wat verwacht de Inspectie van Klinisch onderzoek? Jos Kraus, senior inspecteur Inspectie voor de gezondheidszorg Baarn, 7 oktober 009. Wat is klinisch onderzoek Introductie Definities De weg door de wet
Relatie tussen Appreciative Inquiry en Autonome Motivatie Verklaard door Psychologische Basisbehoeften en gemodereerd door Autonomieondersteuning The Relationship between Appreciative Inquiry and Autonomous
Integratie van Due Diligence in bestaande risicomanagementsystemen volgens NPR 9036 NCP contactdag, 19 april 2016 Thamar Zijlstra, Dick Hortensius NEN Milieu en Maatschappij Agenda Achtergrond NPR 9036
HANDBOEK HARTFALEN (DUTCH EDITION) FROM BOHN STAFLEU VAN LOGHUM READ ONLINE AND DOWNLOAD EBOOK : HANDBOEK HARTFALEN (DUTCH EDITION) FROM BOHN Click button to download this ebook READ ONLINE AND DOWNLOAD
Take Home Assignment Introduction to Modeling Week 7. In chapter 7 of the lecture notes, we give 8 criteria to assess how good a model is, compared to another model for the same application. In this assignment,
Question-Driven Sentence Fusion is a Well-Defined Task. But the Real Issue is: Does it matter? Emiel Krahmer, Erwin Marsi & Paul van Pelt Site visit, Tilburg, November 8, 2007 Plan 1. Introduction: A short
Instruction project completion report The project completion report is in fact a final progress report providing a comparison between the start of the project and the situation at the end of the project.
Persoonskenmerken en ervaren lijden bij verslaving en PTSS 1 De Relatie Tussen Persoonskenmerken en Ervaren Lijden bij Verslaafde Patiënten met PTSS The Relationship between Personality Traits and Suffering
Running head: EFFECT VAN IB-CGT OP SEKSUELE DISFUNCTIES BIJ VROUWEN Het Effect van Online Cognitieve Gedragstherapie op Seksuele Disfuncties bij Vrouwen The Effectiveness of Internet-based Cognitive-Behavioural