Surveys: drowning in data?

Transcriptie

1 Surveys: drowning in data? De toekomst van surveyonderzoek Roeland Beerten Hoofdstatisticus Vlaamse overheid

2 Inhoud Context Surveys in een wereld vol met data De toekomst?

3

4

5

6 People in this country have had enough of experts

7

8

9

10 Surveys in een wereld vol met data Surveys Data everywhere

11 Dalende response rates European Social Survey Beullens, K., Loosveldt G., Vandenplas C. & Stoop I. (2018). Response Rates in the European Social Survey: Increasing, Decreasing, or a Matter of Fieldwork Efforts? Survey Methods: Insights from the Field. Retrieved from

12 Dalende response rates European Social Survey... we find a generally decreasing trend in response rates over the rounds in the European Social Survey... Beullens, K., Loosveldt G., Vandenplas C. & Stoop I. (2018). Response Rates in the European Social Survey: Increasing, Decreasing, or a Matter of Fieldwork Efforts? Survey Methods: Insights from the Field. Retrieved from

13 Dalende response rates European Social Survey... many participating countries have increased their fieldwork efforts in order to prevent individual response propensities from decreasing and, in turn, the response rates from falling. These efforts seem to have had an effect on noncontact rates, but have been less effective in reducing refusal rates. Beullens, K., Loosveldt G., Vandenplas C. & Stoop I. (2018). Response Rates in the European Social Survey: Increasing, Decreasing, or a Matter of Fieldwork Efforts? Survey Methods: Insights from the Field. Retrieved from

14 Dalende response rates European Social Survey Several societal changes (e.g., smaller households, another work/life balance, privacy concerns), technological innovations (e.g., mobile phones and surveys), decreasing trust in surveys or increasing survey burden may affect individual response propensities, explaining the gradual decline in response rates. Beullens, K., Loosveldt G., Vandenplas C. & Stoop I. (2018). Response Rates in the European Social Survey: Increasing, Decreasing, or a Matter of Fieldwork Efforts? Survey Methods: Insights from the Field. Retrieved from

15 Dalende response rates

16 Wat weten we? Nonresponse trends - internationaal De Heer, 1999 nu? Redenen voor nonresponse? Socio-demografische kenmerken (?) Vertrouwen Populisme Privacy Politieke- en beleidscontext

17

18 Bron: TIMBRO

19

20

21

22 Politieke / beleidscontext Decreet Vlaamse openbare statistieken (2016): De ontwikkeling, productie en verspreiding mogen geen onevenredige lasten met zich brengen. De respondenten worden zo weinig mogelijk belast.... bevoegd om... natuurlijke personen of rechtspersonen, indien nodig, te verplichten deel te nemen aan statistische onderzoekingen

23 Politieke / beleidscontext UK Census 2011 "There are, I believe, ways of doing this which will provide better, quicker information, more frequently and cheaper." Mr Maude said population counts could be done more often using various databases. "This would give you more accurate, much more timely data in real time. There is a load of data out there in loads of different places," he said.

24 We re dripping with data

25

26 Data: een korte geschiedenis Census Surveys Registers Organic data

27 Data methodologie Census Surveys Registers Organic data?

28 Meetfouten en representativiteit Beiden van belang Representativiteit is een zwak punt Designed collection vs. harvested (Groves) Weinig statistische expertise in big data wereld Computer science domineert

29

30 Surveys in de nieuwe data wereld Surveys Minder prominent Problemen - kwaliteit Beleids- en politieke context Kost vs. beschikbare middelen Veranderingen noodzakelijk Lengte, mode, smart designs

31 Surveys in de nieuwe data wereld Organic data Zal in belang blijven toenemen Beleidscontext Lage kost Het begin van de zoektocht naar kwaliteit Problemen in kaart brengen Theoretisch kader

32 Surveys in de nieuwe data wereld Borrowing strength Surveys Organic data In de diepte: designed data Representativiteit Veel Goedkoop Tijd, geografie

33 From total survey error to total data error?

34

35

36 Stellingen Surveys hebben de strijd met andere databronnen verloren.

37 Stellingen Surveymethodologie moet radicaal inzetten om de representativiteit van andere databronnen te verbeteren, ten koste van inzet op meetfouten.

38 Stellingen Face to face surveys gebaseerd op random sampling bestaan niet meer binnen 10 jaar.

39 Surveys: drowning in data? De toekomst van